How to profit from Trump

When scouring the election betting markets every day, I’ve been aware that this series of daily recommendations could be too Biden-heavy. Sure, I regard him as outstanding value across a range of markets, but ideally it will include some cover bets. A handful of pro-Trump positions that might win even if he loses. Here’s one…

Trump won’t win without these states

If Trump doesn’t win these five states, he will lose the presidency. Take that to the bank. Yet his odds here are bigger than to win the presidency despite the fact, even if he does win all five, he could still very well lose.

To clarify, the biggest single reason I’m so confident about Biden is his path to victory in the electoral college. He merely needs to hold Clinton’s 2016 states then gain Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Three states that have leaned Democrat for decades, lost to Trump by a wafer-thin margin amid unique circumstances in 2016.

Polls point clearly and consistently to him achieving that and there is even another alternative route that doesn’t ruin this bet – Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nebraska CD-2.

The ideal cover to pro-Biden positions

These five states are much harder targets. At best, Florida ranks fifth on Biden’s target list. Georgia, Iowa, Texas and Ohio are ranked 7-10. Trump simply has to win them all to retain a realistic chance in the electoral college.

Not only is this a good saver against Biden winning the presidency but also the 100.5 Handicap line recommended a few days ago. That bet basically revolves around him winning one or two of these five states.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m confident about that handicap and don’t think Trump will win all these five states. But I rate all five in either the ‘toss-up’ or ‘lean Trump’ category so, compared to 15/82.9 to win overall, taking 13/5 here is a no-brainer.

Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.