Iga Swiatek vs Karolina Pliskova Odds & Prediction


Karolina Pliskova serving the ball during a tennis match.

Czech Republic’s Karolina Pliskova serves the ball to Croatia’s Petra Martic during their semi-final match at the Italian Open tennis tournament, in Rome, Saturday, May 15, 2021. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

  • Iga Swiatek and Karolina Pliskova will face each other in the final of the Italian Open on Sunday, May 16th
  • This will be the first time these two players have ever played each other
  • Continue below for odds and how each player reached the final of the Italian Open

Iga Swiatek and Karolina Pliskova will go head-to-head at this year’s Italian Open final set to take place tomorrow, Sunday May, 16th at 8:30 AM EST.

Swiatek enters the match as the favorite despite the higher rank and higher seed that Pliskova is. But the 19-year old is the 2020 French Open champion, and made her clay court power rankings this year with a 77.8 career clay court win percentage and a 14-4 record last year.

See below for the odds and our best bet predictions for this finals match.

Iga Swiatek vs Karolina Pliskova Italian Open Final Odds

Player Spread at DraftKings Moneyline Total
[15] Iga Swiatek -4.5 (+107) -265 Ov 20.5 (-115)
[9] Karolina Pliskova +4.5 (-136) +205 Un 20.5 (-110)

Odds as of May 15th.

Swiatek’s Second Final of the Season

The 2020 French Open champion has a tough task ahead of her on Saturday, where she would be playing her quarterfinal match, and her semifinal match pending a win. That’s just what happened, and going 2-0 on the day earned her a chance to play in the final match of the tournament on Sunday.

The 19-year old managed to hold off two-time Italian Open champion Elina Svitolina in the quarterfinals, 6-2, 7-5, before defeating Cori Gauff in the semis 7(7)-6(3), 6-3, to book her spot in the finals.

This was the first meeting between the teenagers. Swiatek was able to record 25 winners and 16 unforced errors in comparison to her opponent’s 33 winners and 32 unforced errors. In a match that lasted one hour and 36 minutes, Swiatek’s serve continued to be one of her biggest weapons, as she showed once again her ability to make smart choices on the court.

Swiatek will now look to her biggest challenge of the tournament as she takes on 2019 champion and 2020 runner up Pliskova.

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Third Straight Final for Pliskova

The 29-year old Czech is no stranger to the final stage here in Rome, in fact it’s her third straight appearance. Unable to defend her title last year, losing to Simona Halep, Pliskova will now be looking for her second title in three years.

Pliskova defeated Petra Martic 6-1, 3-6, 6-2, in her second three set match of the tournament. She previously came back to win after losing the first set to Jelena Ostapenko in the quarterfinals.

The ninth seed was able to record 37 winners with 31 unforced errors as she improved her record in Rome to 14-5. Pliskova started off strong right off the bat as she broke her opponent in the first game, and managed to record 13 winners and not face a break point all set.

In the second set, Pliskova was not able to keep the momentum going as Martic earned three break points and take advantage of her opponent’s unforced errors. Funny enough it was Martic in the second set that did not face a break point.

But it was all Pliskova in the deciding set, as she was tighter with her forehand shots and serves, and was able to seal the win.

Pliskova will now take on Swiatek in her first WTA singles final since this exact event last year.

Head-to-Head & Best Bet

There’s a whole decade difference in age here, but no previous matches to go off. This will be the first time these two players will be seeing each other on tour. Despite the higher rank and overall more success, Swiatek has the better record on the year, and has already managed to capture a title.

Iga Swiatek vs Karolina Pliskova Head-to-Head

15 WTA Standing 9
19 Age 29
2 Career Singles Titles 16
123/36 Career Singles W/L 551/305
1 YTD Singles Titles 0
13/5 YTD Singles W/L 10/8
0 Head-to-Head Wins 0

We can’t forget that Swiatek played two full matches on Saturday, something that is exhausting no matter how you put it. She played well, and eased her way through, but the fatigue is sure to set in and some point or another. Whether it’ll happen prior, during or after the finals match, we don’t know.

I think this will be quite a close match regardless of who wins, but it seems that Swiatek has been the one who’s been tested more this week, and still able to come out on top. On paper Pliskova really hasn’t been tested, but has still see two matches go three sets, and I think Swiatek will give her the biggest test of the tournament.

The Pick: Swiatek (-265); 2-0 (+102)

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Hayley Graham

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