Italty vs England Odds & Prediction

Italy vs England

England’s Harry Kane celebrates after winning during the Euro 2020 soccer championship semifinal match between England and Denmark at Wembley stadium in London, Wednesday,July 7, 2021. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein,Pool)

  • The Euro 2020 final pits Italy vs England together on July 11, 2021
  • Italy last won the Euros in 1968, while England’s last and only major win came at the World Cup in 1966
  • Read on for the odds and our full match preview and best bets for Italy vs England below

After a month of action across Europe, 50 matches have been played at Euro 2020 and on Sunday, July 11 at 3:00 pm EST the final match will be played with Italy vs England for all the glory.

Will Italy win the Euros for the first time since 1968, or will the trophy finally come home to the host nation England who have never reached the final of this competition?

We preview the match with our best bets here.

Italy vs England Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total To Lift Trophy
Italy vs England ITA pk (+102) | ENG pk (-124) ITA (+200) | DRAW (+200) | ENG (+165) Ov 2 (-103) | Un 2 (-117) ITA (+100) | ENG (-115)

Odds as of July 9 at DraftKings

Italy Enter Final Undefeated in 33 Matches

The Italians have reached this point in the competition a couple of times in recent memory. In 2000 they lost 2-1 to France in extra-time, while in 2012 they were blown away 4-0 by Spain.

On the global stage, they’ve won the World Cup in 1934, 1938, 1982 and 2006. They were runners-up in 1970 and 1974.

Italy coasted through the group stage of the tournament with 3-0 (Turkey), 3-0 (Switzerland) and 1-0 (Wales) wins. In the round of 16 they needed extra-time and a 105′ minute goal from Matteo Pessina to defeat a resolute Austrian side.

A wild three-goal first half quarterfinal which saw Italy leading 2-1 at the half with Belgium proved to be all the scoring that match would need for them to advance into the semifinals.

Against Spain, Italy was under pressure for large portions of the game. Spain held 65-percent possession and had 17 attempts compared to seven for Italy. Despite this, it was a counter and a goal against the run of play by Federico Chiesa who put the Italians up 1-0 in the 60′ minute.

Alvaro Morata, who’s had an up and down tournament, came off the bench and made an instant impact drawing Spain level in the 80′ minute to send the game to extra-time and penalties. With both teams missing their first penalties, Morata went from the penthouse to the outhouse with a fourth-round miss. Thus setting up Chelsea’s Jorginho to score in the fifth round and send Italy into the finals.

It was very much a game that Spain could have won if perhaps they had more clinical finishers up top. The Italians meanwhile have found goals all across their line up with five different players scoring multiple times this tournament.

Against England, the run of play should be more tilted in Italy’s favor. They have a strong midfield. Should control the possession and won’t be afraid to send attackers forward and challenge a sturdy English defense.

Italy has an experienced backline with the likes of Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini in the middle. But England certainly has the talent and pace to pull them out of place. Raheem Sterling’s speed could cause problems. He was instrumental in the England attack in the semis with ten dribbles. Italy will also be without one of their standout performers of the tournament in left-back Leonardo Spinazzola with a ruptured Achilles.

England doesn’t have, a player like Spain’s Pedri though, who was able to control the play against Italy, completing 55/55 passes against the Azzurri in the semis. England has been used to holding the possession advantage. In four of their six matches, they have done so. The two times they didn’t they still held 46 and 49-percent. Meanwhile, Italy has held 50-percent or more possession in every match this competition except for their semi against Spain.

UEFA Euro 2020 Odds Tracker

Is It Finally Coming Home for England?

England has never reached a European Championship final. In fact, their only major success as a nation came way back in 1966 when they won the World Cup.

That could change on Sunday when they’ll have the added benefit of playing in front of their own fans at Wembley. It’s an advantage they’ve held for most of this tournament having played every match except the quarterfinals (vs Ukraine in Italy) in London.

Despite calls by fans and media to change the lineup and formation, manager Gareth Southgate has managed to push all the right buttons in getting the Three Lions one win away from their greatest accomplishment in recent history.

England started slowly in the group stage, with 1-0, 0-0 and 1-0 results. It wasn’t pretty to watch but it was effective. The offense finally got rolling in the knockout rounds with 2-0 and 4-0 wins over Germany and Ukraine.

Heading into the semifinals, England was still yet to concede a goal at the competition and was heavily favored to advance past the feel-good story of the tournament, Denmark.

Soon after Jordan Pickford broke a 1966 English team record for not allowing a goal in 720 minutes, the Danes finally breached the English goal. Youngster Mikkel Damsgaard’s incredible free-kick soared over England’s defensive wall and just over the outstretched hand of Pickford.

Denmark came out strong and struck first in the semifinal in the 30′ minute, but the lead would be short-lived. Just nine minutes later England leveled the score through a Simon Kjaer own goal, a deflection from a ball sent into the box by Bukayo Saka. This, just 48 seconds after Kasper Schmeichel had made a world-class save at point-blank range off Sterling. Despite the strong Danish start, England’s depth slowly took over as Denmark faded in the game with just one shot on target during the second half and extra-time combined.

After Harry Kane thought he was close to getting a penalty near the end of full-time, only to have the decision go against him, the English captain would get his chance from the spot in extra-time. Sterling drew a questionable penalty despite minimal contact and an extra ball being on the field. Kane’s ensuing penalty was stopped, however, he was able to put in the rebound in the 104′ minute to give England a 2-1 win.

Italy vs England Euro 2020 Stats

5 Wins 5
1 Draws 1
0 Losses 0
12 Goals 10
3 Goals Against 1
108 Attempts 58
30 Attempts on Target 25
52.3% Average Possession 54.2%

Italy vs England Best Bets

The defensive stability of England and the distinctive home advantage cannot be ignored in this final. No matter the competition, allowing just a single goal and none from open play leading into a final is quite the feat.

However, it has to be stated that this tournament has been set up and has lined up perfectly for England. They were always to be favored to come out on top in Group D and that set them up as the only team to have home-field advantage in the round of 16. The Germans can compare to Italy when it comes to attacking talent but have looked out of sorts for a long time now and almost failed to get out of Group F.

Drawing Ukraine and Denmark in the subsequent rounds in the weaker side of the bracket, was a gift.

When you look at Italy, being undefeated in 33 matches is incredible. While many of those matches may have come against weaker opponents in qualifying stages, the fact is Roberto Mancini has this squad rolling. They’ve also scored in 15-straight matches.

They too didn’t have the toughest group, though Switzerland and Wales are respectable sides and Turkey was expected to perform better. They were drawn into the tougher side of the bracket and have conceded in three straight. But wins over Belgium and Spain in the quarters and semis respectively will have this side believing they can go toe-to-toe with anyone.

When previewing this tournament, I foresaw the potential for this exact matchup taking place. Italy was my best bet to win then and I still feel they will have every chance to lift the trophy now. Of course, if you’re sitting on a tournament future on either of these sides, hedging a little on the other side could be a worthwhile option.

In this final, I don’t see much separating the teams. It’s hard to not see England scoring. But this will also be the best attacking unit the Three Lions have seen themselves. Finals often have a way of not living up to the hype as both teams ease their way into the match, not wanting to commit a mistake early.

I see both teams scoring (+115), with the potential for a half-time draw (-113), and or full-time draw (+200). For more value taking a 1-1 correct score in the prop market is offered at +500 odds.

Picks: Both Teams to Score (+115), Half-Time Draw (-113)

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