Joe Biden’s Odds to Win a Second Term in 2024 Are Already Getting Worse


Joe Biden speaking

The odds of Joe Biden running for a second term in the White House are growing longer. Photo by Gage Skidmore (flickr).

  • President-elect Joe Biden remains the second betting choice to win the 2024 US Presidential election
  • However, his odds have lengthened from +650 to +850
  • Odds of favored Kamala Harris also grew slightly longer, from +425 to +463

On Jan. 20th, Joe Biden will replace a one-term President. He’ll be inaugurated that day, while Donald Trump is evicted from the White House.

Four years from now, the betting line is leaning toward Biden also being a one-term President. In fact, it’s tilting much more strongly that way than it did when he first won election to the Oval Office.

President-elect Biden remains the second betting choice. However, his betting line has grown to +850. On Nov. 9th, he was at +650 in the 2024 election odds.

Kamala Harris, Biden’s Vice-President elect, retains her role as favorite in this betting market. She’s also seen her odds lengthen, though. The betting line on Harris grew from +425 to +463.

2024 US Presidential Election Odds

Candidate Nov. 26th Odds Nov. 9th Odds Trending
Kamala Harris +463 +425
Joe Biden +850 +650
Nikki Haley +800 +900
Mike Pence +800 +900
Andrew Yang +1200 +1200
Pete Buttigieg +1425 +1450
Michelle Obama +1450 +1300
Donald Trump Sr +1500 +2500
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +1575 +1400
Bernie Sanders +1750 +1500
Beto O’Rourke +1933 +2000
Ivanka Trump +2000 +3000
Stacey Abrams +2000 +2000
Andrew Cuomo +2175 +1850
Elizabeth Warren +2225 +1800
Tim Scott +2500 +2500
Ted Cruz +2775 +2250
John Kasich +3300 +3300
Josh Hawley +3300 +2600
Michael Bloomberg +3375 +3250
Cory Booker +3500 +3000
Mark Cuban +3525 +4150

Odds as of Nov. 27th

A pair of Republicans – current VP Mike Pence and former North Carolina Governor Nikki Haley – saw their odds shorten from +900 to +800.

Biden: The One Term-inator

It’s rare that an incumbent is already not being listed as the favorite to win a second term. In Biden’s case, the creation of this betting malaise is not without justification.

From the outset, pundits were strongly speculating that Biden would be a one-term President. Biden, who celebrated his 78th birthday last week, will be the oldest sitting President the moment he officially takes over from Trump.

Biden hasn’t ruled out running for a second term. At the same time, he has referred to himself as a transitional President.

During the primary process for the 2020 election, Democrats were viewing Biden as the best bet to unseat Trump. A moderate with little in the way of baggage, Biden didn’t evoke fear or hatred the way Hillary Clinton did four years earlier.

Mission accomplished, Biden’s task will be to help clean up the mess left behind by Trump and attempt to heal a fractured nation. He’ll be 82 in four years’ time. By serving as a one-term President, Biden will be able to focus all his energy on the job at hand, without the looming need to fundraise for a 2024 run.

2024 Republican Party Presidential Nominee Odds Tracker

Democratic Unrest

Biden isn’t the only Democrat whose chances lengthened since the previous lines were posted.

Pete Buttigieg (+1425-+1450), Michelle Obama (+1300-+1450), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (+1400-+1575), Bernie Sanders (+1500-+1750), Andrew Cuomo (+1850-+2175), Elizabeth Warren (+1800-+2225), Michael Bloomberg (+3250-+3375) and Cory Booker (+3000-+3500) also saw their odds grow.

Even Harris, while remaining the 2024 chalk, went from +425 to +463. She’ll be looking to buck a traditional trend. George HW Bush, in 1988, was the last sitting VP to be win the Presidency in the next election cycle.

The only Democrats of note who didn’t lengthen on the odds board were Andrew Yang (remained at +1200) and Beto O’Rourke (+2000-+1933).

Trump Isn’t Going Away

Trump won’t be serving a second term but Trumpism won’t magically disappear. The elephant in the room is that his odds of winning in 2024 shortened significantly from +2500 to +1500.

The betting line on daughter Ivanka Trump improved to +2000 from +3000.

The fact of the matter is that this far away, it’s anyone’s guess who the nominees will be in 2024. You might as well go for a candidate who offers value.

Don’t put your money on Biden, though. He’ll be a one-and-done President.

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Robert Duff

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