Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes Throw-Off Odds

Pat Mahomes pointing and smiling

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs is the -140 favorite to throw further than Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills in a proposed throw off between the two NFL QBs. Photo by @SaintsFan2021 (

  • KC Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the -140 favorite to defeat Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills in a โ€œthrow offโ€
  • Allen was the -170 when this competition was first proposed last year.
  • Whatโ€™s caused the odds to change?

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are both capable of going long. We may soon find out which of these NFL quarterbacks can go the longest. And the fastest, for that matter.

A proposed throw-off competition between Mahomes of the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and Allen of the Buffalo Bills has been discussed since the spring of 2019. During a recent appearance on the NFL Networkโ€™s Good Morning Football, Allen let the cat out of the bag.

Itโ€™s on.

Mahomes and Allen were prepared to go throw-for-throw this summer until their plans were socially distanced by the COVID-19 pandemic.

They still intend to do it and will likely find time to make it happen during the summer following the 2020 NFL season.

Oddsmakers are already hard at work. Mahomes has been established as the -140 favorite to unleash the longest throw during the competition.

Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes Throw-Off Odds

Prop Allen Odds Mahomes Odds
Longest Throw Winner +110 -140
Fastest Throw Winner -130 +110

Odds taken Aug. 6th.

Allen, though, is the chalk to zip the fastest ball of the event.

A Changing of the Odds

When this competition was first announced in April of 2019, the sportsbooks were on board with Allen. He was the solid -170 chalk.

While Mahomes won NFL MVP honors in 2018, Allen posted the longest pass completion in the leagueย  at 63.9 yards. Last season, though, Mahomes (55.1) went much deeper with his longest completion than Allen (50.1).

If you put any stock in Madden ratings, then Allen is guy to go to. His throwing-power rating is a game-high 99. Mahomes comes in at 97.

Remember, this is just like a long-distance driving competition. Itโ€™s all about how far it goes. Sure, it might not be anywhere near the intended receiver but Allen has proven that he can throw it a long way.

Pick: Allen to win longest throw (+110)

Allen Picks Up Pace

When it comes time to stand and deliver, Allen brings the heat. He was clocked at a record 62 mph during his appearance at the 2018 NFL Combine.

Mahomes clicked the radar gun at 60 mph during the 2017 NFL Combine. At the time, that tied the combine record.

If they have a radar gun handy, perhaps bettors can do some advanced scouting. The Chiefs and Bills are slated to clash in a Thursday night meeting during Week 6 of the 2020 NFL season.

Pick: Allen to win fastest throw (-130)

Super Bowl 55 Odds Tracker

Allen-Mahomes Throw-Off Over/Under Odds

Prop Total Over Odds Under Odds
Distance of Longest Throw 83.5 Yards -115 -115
Speed of Fastest Throw 60.5 mph -145 +115

Mahomes threw a ball 80 yards on his pro day in 2017. He registered a career-high 60.7-yard completion during the 2018 NFL season.ย  He confidently states that heโ€™s never seen a QB throw it further than him.

Mahomes estimated that it will take a throw of 85 yards to win this competition.

Allen tosses footballs 70 yards through the air without much effort. One can only wonder how far he could chuck were he to really put his arm up to the task.

A key factor in this wager is that old real estate axiom โ€“ location, location, location. If organizers were to place this event in the mile-high altitude of Denver, balls could really set sail.

Mahomes casually heaves 90-yard passes when he warms up for road games against the Broncos. He thinks he might be able to hit 100 yards in the thin air if he really put his mind to it.

Pick: Over 83.5 yards (-115)

Bringing the Heat

Beyond his NFL Combine numbers, an Allen pass was clocked traveling 66 mph at the 2018 Senior Bowl.

During his high-school days as a baseball pitcher, the radar gun regularly showed Mahomes delivering the ball to the plate in the 90s.

Taping a spot for NFL media, Mahomes delivered three passes while being clocked for speed. He hit 58, 58, and 62 mph.

Pick: Over 60.5 mph (-145)

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Robert Duff