Justin Fields and Mac Jones Overtake Lawrence, Become Co-Favorites


Justin Fields throws the football

Ohio State QB Justin Fields has become a co-favorite for the Heisman Trophy after his second game of the season. Photo from @BR_CFB (Twitter)

  • Ohio State’s Justin Fields and Alabama’s Mac Jones are co-favored for the Heisman after their stellar Week 9 performance
  • Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence has fallen to +200 following his COVID-19 diagnosis
  • See the updated Heisman Trophy odds after Week 9 along with betting analysis, below

For the first time this season, a player not named Trevor Lawrence is favored in the Heisman Trophy odds.

Ohio State’s Justin Fields and Alabama’s Mac Jones have both overtaken Lawrence in the odds and are listed as co-favorites for the trophy after Week 9. Lawrence is trending downwards after it was announced last week that he had tested positive for COVID-19.

Lawrence only faded to +200 this week, but without an opportunity for a showcase game against Notre Dame – how far could his odds plummet from here?

2020 Heisman Trophy Odds

Player Odds
Justin Fields (QB, Ohio State) +150
Mac Jones (QB, Alabama) +150
Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson) +200
Zach Wilson (QB, BYU) +3000
Devonta Smith (WR, Alabama) +5000
Kyle Trask (QB, Florida) +5000
Najee Harris (QB, Alabama) +5000
Chuba Hubbard (RB, Oklahoma State) +10000
D’Eriq King (QB, Miami) +10000
Kellen Mond (QB, Texas A&M) +10000
Travis Etienne  (RB, Clemson) +10000
Joe Milton (QB, Michigan) +15000
Master Teague (RB, Ohio State) +15000
Shane Buechele (QB, SMU) +15000
Spencer Rattler (QB, Oklahoma) +10000

Odds taken Nov. 2 at FanDuel 

Fields Delivers Against Penn State

Buckeyes’ QB Justin Fields has become a co-favorite for the Heisman Trophy after impressing in his potentially biggest test of the regular season. The junior pivot went from +260 to +150 at FanDuel after going 28-of-34 passing for 318 yards and four touchdowns in a huge win over the Nittany Lions.

Fields has been nearly flawless through his first two games of the season. He’s accounted for seven total touchdowns and has thrown the same amount of incomplete passes. His chemistry with receivers Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson has been electric, as the tandem combined for 18 catches and 231 yards against the Nittany Lions.

After finishing third in the race last season, Fields is well on his way to a first-place finish this time around.

The Buckeyes are significantly better than any team in the Big Ten, so you can expect Fields to continue padding his stats each week. The only concern for Fields is that the Big 10 plays fewer games than the ACC and SEC, but as long as he keeps up this play, it’ll be hard for anyone to deny him the trophy.

Mac Jones Continues to Thrive

The Alabama QB has joined Fields in overtaking Lawrence and becoming a co-favorite for the Heisman. The Tide pivot went from +360 to +150 after going 24-of-31 passing for 291 yards and four touchdowns in a 44-0 win over Mississippi State.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlVf-hgcAyc

Jones hasn’t been getting the same type of hype as Fields or Lawrence, but he’s firmly established himself as a serious Heisman contender. The second-year pivot has put up remarkable numbers each week and ranks among the leaders in all the key statistical categories. He’s earned his place in the odds with 2,196 yards passing and 16 touchdowns with just two interceptions in six games this season.

Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith caught all four of Jones’ TD throws in Week 9, but he remains a +5000 Heisman longshot. Running back Najee Harris also didn’t see any improvement in his odds after rushing for 119 yards in the blowout victory over the Bulldogs.

Jones has looked as good as any QB in the country through six games. Alabama’s offensive line has been incredible, and the offense looked electric in their first game without Jaylen Waddle on Saturday. The Tide will have a bye in Week 10, but Jones won’t be moving down the odds anytime soon.

Lawrence Trending Down Due to COVID 

The Heisman stock for Trevor Lawrence has taken a major hit after the Clemson star tested positive for COVID-19 last week. Not only did Lawrence miss his team’s game against Boston College in Week 9, but head coach Dabo Swinney announced in his post-game that Lawrence will also miss the big game against Notre Dame on Nov. 7.

If this were any other player besides Lawrence, missing two games in a shortened season would mean ruling out any chance of winning the Heisman. The Tigers QB had been so good through six games that missing at least two contests meant FanDuel only dropped his odds from -105 to +200.

There’s still a path for Lawrence to win the Heisman, but it likely requires Jones or Fields to turn in a clunker. The game between the Irish and Tigers in South Bend is one of the most-anticipated games of the year and could’ve seen Lawrence lock up the trophy with a massive performance on the national stage.

Lawrence’s teammate, star running back Travis Etienne, is also stealing votes while his QB remains idle. Etienne (+10000) is often overshadowed by Lawrence, but he took over the spotlight in Week 9 when he racked up 264 all-purpose yards, two touchdowns and became the ACC’s all-time leading rushing leader in a comeback win over Boston College.

2021 CFP National Championship Odds Tracker

Heisman Analysis After Week 9

There’s good value on Lawrence to win the Heisman now that he’s guaranteed to miss at least two games, but that doesn’t mean it’s the smart play. Not only is he missing the biggest game of the season, but no player has ever missed more than one game in a season and won the Heisman since Angelo Bertelli missed four games and won with the Irish in 1943.

The player that benefits the most from Lawrence’s diagnosis is Mac Jones of Alabama. He may not be as flashy as the other top contenders, but he’ll be playing two more games than Fields and at least one more than Lawrence. The Heisman has been about the numbers lately, and Jones is on pace to finish with some eye-popping totals.

With Lawrence missing two games, the race will likely come down to Fields and Jones. It might be easy for voters to resort to default mode at the end of the year and give it to Jones based on his numbers, but they might also be smart about it and assess player performance on a game-by-game basis.

Jones should be considered the front-runner after Week 9, but Fields has the higher ceiling. The Buckeye pivot has been near-perfect through two games and has the talent to pull away from the pack with an otherworldly performance against an upcoming opponent like Rutgers or Maryland.

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Brady Trettenero

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