Kamala Harris Opens as +250 Favorite to Win Democratic Nomination in 2024; Biden a Distant Second at +700


Kamala Harris speaking

Vice President-elect Kamala Harris is the +250 favorite in the opening line of who will win the 2024 Democratic Presidential nomination. Photo by Gage Skidomre (fliokr).

  • In the opening-line odds on the 2024 Democratic Presidential campaign, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris is the +250 favorite
  • President-elect Joe Biden is the second betting choice at +700
  • Since 1900, just one Vice President went directly from the Veep’s chair to the Oval Office via a mandate from the people

The moment she sets foot in the White House in her official capacity on Jan. 21st, 2021, Democratic Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will be the first female to hold that office.

As well, Harris will be the first person of color to serve as second in command in the US government. She’s also the Asian-American VP.

Oddsmakers are of the opinion that bigger and better things lay ahead for Harris. In the opening betting line on who will be the 2024 Democratic Presidential nominee, Harris is the +250 favorite.

2024 US Presidential Election Democratic Nominee Odds

Candidate Odds
Kamala Harris +250
Joe Biden +700
Andrew Yang +800
Pete Buttigieg +900
Beto O’Rourke +1000
Stacey Abrams +1200
Michelle Obama +1200
Bernie Sanders +1200
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +1400
Andrew Cuomo +1600
Elizabeth Warren +1800
Michael Bloomberg +2000
Mark Cuban +2000
Amy Klobuchar +2500
Cory Booker +2500
Gretchen Whitmer +2500
Deval Patrick +3300
Sherrod Brown +3300
Val Demings +4000
Tulsi Gabbard +4000
Hillary Clinton +5000
Michael Bennet +6000
Kirsten Gillibrand +10000
Tammy Baldwin +10000
Tammy Duckworth +10000

Odds taken Nov. 7.

President-elect Joe Biden is the second betting choice at a distant +700.

A Heartbeat Away

It’s often said that the Vice-President is a heartbeat away from the Presidency. In this case, that saying takes on even more relevance. Biden will celebrate his 78th birthday later this month.

Expectations are that because of his age, Biden will be a one-term President. Working as his second in command. Harris would appear to be well-positioned to take that next step.

History Not With Harris

History is not on her side if Harris seeks to make that step to the Oval Office. Going from #2 to #1 in the party might seem like a short distance. However, it’s a route few have traveled successfully.

Since 1900, just one person has gone directly from the Vice President’s role to the Presidency via a mandate from the people. Only three have even successfully taken the direct step from the Vice-President’s chair to the party’s nomination for President over that same time period.

Only one among that quartet was a Democrat. Al Gore was Bill Clinton’s Vice President from 1992-2000. Gore won the 2000 Democratic nomination. However, he lost the Presidential election to George W Bush.

Though he’d later win the Presidency, in his first bid in 1960, Richard Nixon, who’d been Dwight Eisenhower’s VP from 1953-60, lost to Democrat John F Kennedy. George HW Bush, Ronald Reagan’s VP from 1981-88, won the Presidency for the Republicans in 1988.

Five other VPs have inherited the Presidency since 1900. Gerald Ford took over when Nixon resigned. Theodore Roosevelt (William McKinley), Calvin Coolidge (Warren Harding), Harry Truman (Franklin D Roosevelt) and Lyndon Johnson (Kennedy) all succeeded Presidents who died in office.

Of those five, all but Ford won their bid to win election to a full term as President.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds Tracker

Other Democratic Hopefuls

Harris ran for the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination. After a solid start, her campaign quickly fizzled. Out of money, she dropped from the race in December of 2019.

Others who ran in 2020 are among the contenders. Of the 2020 group, the one who’s star has continued to shine is Pete Buttigieg. He’s campaigned powerfully for Biden. It’s not hard to imagine Buttigieg as a frontrunner again in 2024.

Looking for a fresh face who could be a force in 2024? Look no further than Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

She gained a national profile when she stood up to US President Donald Trump over COVID-19 aid. She also stood her ground when armed protesters sought to storm the Michigan legislature.

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Robert Duff

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