Kane can shine in Spurs win

Newcastle v Tottenham
Sunday, 14:05
Sky Sports Main Event

Newcastle odds-on to go down

Fourth-bottom Newcastle continue to look nervously over their shoulders as we prepare to enter the Premier League’s closing stretch.

To their relief, 18th-placed Fulham have stalled with back-to-back home defeats to Manchester City and Leeds but the gap over the Cottagers remains just two points.

In other words, if Newcastle lose here and Fulham take victory at Aston Villa, the Magpies will end the weekend in the relegation zone.

So, do they have it in them to stretch away to safety? Even if you find a positive Newcastle fan – good luck with that – a look at the fixture list will likely drum that out of them.

After a trip to Burnley, they then take on West Ham (h), Liverpool (a), Arsenal (h), Leicester (a) and Manchester City (h).

Having taken just three points in their last six Premier League games, how many can they realistically expect to pick up from from that lot?

It’s partly answered by a look at the relegation betting. Newcastle are 1.9110/11 to do down while Fulham are 2.226/5.

Spurs still harbour top four hopes

Spurs can be quick to lapse into perceived crisis and that was the case when they lost the North London derby 2-1 before crashing out of Europe with an embarrassing 3-0 loss to Dinamo Zagreb.

But prior to those back-to-back away losses, they’d won five straight and they went into the international break with a 2-0 victory at Aston Villa.

Cutting through all the social media outrage, Spurs are three points behind fourth-placed Chelsea. A Champions League spot is still a big ask but it’s possible. They’re currently 4.216/5 on the exchange which is shorter than Liverpool.

They have a mixed bunch of fixtures on the run-in along with a League Cup final but this trip to Newcastle must surely be a golden opportunity to bank three more points.

One big bonus is that Son Heung-min will return after the hamstring injury he suffered against Arsenal.

Jose Mourinho gave this update on Friday. “Son is good. He will be selected. He was injured, he trained with the team fully for the first time this morning. Last week he didn’t train at all so it was completely impossible to play international. This time was a good chance for him to recover.”

Newcastle boss Steve Bruce must be cursing the timing of Spurs getting the Korean back as his partnership with Harry Kane has been electric.

It’s absolutely no surprise to see Spurs trading as short as 1.674/6 for the win. Newcastle have been pretty hapless and this is a fixture than Tottenham enjoy.

In the last six Premier League head-to-heads at St James’ Park, Spurs have returned south with all three points five times. That includes victories in each of the last three, those scorelines reading: 3-1, 2-1 and 2-0.

Newcastle did somehow pinch a point in the first meeting after winning a controversial penalty in added time but, if anything, that will only make Tottenham even more eager to put them away.

Mourinho’s men have won seven times away from home this season and four have been by two goals more. That would justify a handicap play of Spurs (-1) at 2.767/4.

If Son and Kane are really in the mood, Spurs (-2) is 5.8.

Probably on the basis that it’s quite possible that Newcastle won’t be contributing, Under 2.5 goals is the favourite 1.8910/11.

Spurs can be viewed as negative but they do have plenty of firepower and when it clicks they can rack up big scores.

Indeed, five times in their last 12 matches they’ve racked up four goals so they’re easily capable of scoring three on their own.

Given that, Over 2.5 makes more appeal at 1.981/1.

For those who just want to try and cash in on Newcastle firing blanks, then preference is for Both teams to Score ‘No’ at the same price, 1.981/1.

However, the best bets here come on the Same Game Multi.

I’ll pick two which both involve an away win and the game’s most likely goalscorer.

Harry Kane to score in a Spurs win is 2.47/5. Take that.

The other angle comes from an Opta stat: Newcastle have scored a league-low ratio 32% of their Premier League goals in the first half of games this season (9/28), while Tottenham have shipped a league-low share of their goals conceded in the opening 45 minutes (36.7% – 11/30).

On those numbers, it’s a fair ask for Spurs to be leading at the break.

So, the second bet is: Harry Kane to score in a Spurs win and Tottenham to leading at half-time which is approx. 3.711/4.

For the record, Kane has scored seven in his last seven for club and country. He also bagged a brace in this very fixture last season.

Opta Stat

Harry Kane has been involved in 43 goals in 40 games in all competitions this season (27 goals, 16 assists), just two short of his best ever season in his senior career (41 goals and 4 assists in 2017-18).