KBO Picks & Odds (September 9): Donโ€™t Buy the Recency Bias

  • 23 of Kiwoom’s last 29 games have produced a total of 11 or less
  • KIA has won three straight yet are home underdogs versus LG
  • Find odds and best bets for the KBO’s five-game slate on September 9th in the article below

Kiwoom squeaked past SK 16-15 on Tuesday in one of the highest scoring games of the KBO season. The second place Heroes lit up Wyverns starter Ricardo Pinto (as we predicted) for seven hits and eight runs in just 4.2 innings, and did the rest of the damage against SK relievers. The two teams will meet again Wednesday at 5:30 am EST, and the total seems a bit inflated.

ย KBO Odds: Wednesday, September 9th

Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total at FanDuel Game Time (Eastern)
Hanwha Eagles +235 +1.5 (+110) Over 9.5 (+100) 5:30 a.m.
Samsung Lions -300 -1.5 (-140) Under 9.5 (-128)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
KT Wiz Suwon +124 +1.5 (-166) Over 9.5 (-118) 5:30 a.m.
Doosan Bears -150 -1.5 (+130) Under 9.5 (-108)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Kiwoom Heroes -156 -1.5 (-102) Over 11.5 (-122) 5:30 a.m.
SK Wyverns +128 +1.5 (-124) Under 11.5 (-104)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
LG Twins -122 -1.5 (+128) Over 9.5 (-110) 5:30 a.m.
KIA Tigers +100 +1.5 (-164) Under 9.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Lotte Giants +260 +1.5 (+128) Over 10.5 (-108) 5:30 a.m.
NC Dinos -350 -1.5 (-164) Under 10.5 (-118)

Odds as of Sept. 8th.

The over/under opened up at 11.5, the highest of any game on the slate. Despite crossing the plate 15 times on Tuesday, SK remains the second lowest scoring team in the league, and Kiwoom ranks outside the top-four.

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Don’t Buy into Tuesday’s Result

Just six of the Heroes past 29 games have exceeded a total of 11. They allow the second fewest runs per game, and their bullpen boasts the league’s best ERA. They’ll send Young Gun Jo to the mound, who’s fresh off a dazzling performance versus NC.

The 21-year-old allowed just two hits in 5 scoreless innings en route to his first win since June. He’s been splitting his time as a starter and reliever recently, and has surrendered just two runs total in his last 12 innings. Prior to Tuesday, SK had scored just nine runs in its previous five games, and I’m banking on them reverting back to that form.

The Wyverns will counter with Seung Geon Baek, who’s failed to make it out of the 4th inning in either of his last two starts. He’s dropped all four of his decisions this year, and owns a 7.57 ERA.

Picks: Kiwoom Heroes moneyline (-156), Under 11.5 (-104)

Tigers Tame Twins

With just six weeks left in the regular season, the KIA Tigers are making a strong push for a playoff position. They’ve won three straight and eight of 10 overall, but find themselves home underdogs versus LG.

The Tigers prevailed 3-2 over the Twins on Tuesday and will send Drew Gagnon the mound on Wednesday. The 30-year-old is fresh off back-to-back victories, allowing just four runs in 13 innings against Lotte and Doosan.

Gagnon failed in his only outing versus LG this season, but that was three months ago. He’s 6-2 since that start and has held the opposition to two runs or less in five of his last eight appearances.

LG will counter with Tyler Wilson, who’s been hit hard in each of his last two outings. Six days ago, he surrendered 12 hits and four runs to the Dinos, and in his prior start he was rocked for five runs, and two homers by KT Wiz.

Wilson has faced KIA twice this season, and neither start was overly impressive. He gave up 10 hits and four runs in one outing, and six hits and three runs in the other.

KIA is playing extremely well at the moment and all the value lies with them at +100.

Pick: KIA Tigers moneyline (+100)

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