KBO Playoff Picks and Odds (Nov. 4): Doosan Begins Title Defense


Doosan Bears

Doosan’s Chris Flexen will start Game 1 of the KBO Semi-Playoff versus LG’s Min Ho Lee on Wednesday. Photo by @LandonSmithOC (Twitter).

  • LG faces Doosan on Wednesday in Game 1 of the KBO Semi-Playoff
  • Bears starter Chris Flexen allowed just one run over his final four regular season outings
  • Find odds and best bets for the KBOโ€™s one-game playoff slate on November 4th in the article below

The LG Twins dispatched the Kiwoom Heroes in the Wild Card round of the KBO playoffs over the weekend, setting up a Semi-Playoff showdown with the defending champion Doosan Bears.

The best-of-3 series gets underway on Wednesday, at 4:30 am EST, with the winner earning the right to face KT Wiz for a chance to reach the Korean Series.

ย KBO Semi-Playoff Odds: Game 1

Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
LG Twins +186 +1.5 (-116) Over 9.5 (+106) 4:30 a.m.
Doosan Bears -235 -1.5 (-110) Under 9.5 (-136)

Odds as of Nov. 3rd at FanDuel.

The Bears opened up as a -235 moneyline favorite, in a game that features a total of 9.5. Doosan was 9-6-1 versus LG in the regular season, and ended the season strong with four straight victories. Theyโ€™ll send Chris Flexen to the mound for Game 1, whoโ€™s been the best pitcher in the league over the last few weeks.

2021 World Series Odds Tracker

Flexen is Automatic

Over his past four starts, Flexen has surrendered 0, 0, 1 and 0 runs. Heโ€™s allowed four hits or less in each of those outings, and has a ridiculous 38-3 strikeout-to-walk rate.

Dating back to July 4th, heโ€™s allowed more than two earned runs just once in 11 starts and has given up only three homers.

Chris Flexen Last Four Starts

Dec IP ER H SO BB
W 6.2 0 3 10 0
W 7.0 0 3 12 0
ND 6.0 1 3 7 2
W 7.0 0 4 9 1

He hasnโ€™t faced the Twins since his first start of the season, an outing which resulted in a 9-3 Doosan victory.

The LG bats meanwhile, ranked fourth in runs per game in 2020, but were incredibly inconsistent over the final month. The Twins put up seven or more runs on eight occasions, but were held to three runs or less 11 times.

Relying on a Rookie

LG will turn to 19-year-old Min Ho Lee, in an effort to silence Doosanโ€™s number two ranked offense. The Bears finished up 2020 batting a league-best .293, and ranked second in runs and hits per game.

Leeโ€™s rookie campaign was a mixed bag, looking brilliant in some outings, and struggling mightily in others.

He recorded a quality start in 43.8% of his outings, but surrendered four or more runs on five separate occasions. Itโ€™s worth noting he pitched very well down the stretch, posting a 1.88 ERA in October, and allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last five starts.

He made four appearances against Doosan this season (two in relief), allowing five runs and 12 hits over 13 innings.

Follow the Money

As mentioned, the total for this game is currently 9.5, but with the juice so heavily shaded towards the under, we could see the line drop before first pitch.

Playoff baseball often breeds low scoring games, and with two quality starters on the mound on Wednesday, runs will definitely be at a premium.

Flexen starts in particular have been sailing under the total, as each of his past 10 outings have produced a total of nine runs or less.

I also like the Bears on the moneyline, but with a -235 price tag, Iโ€™ll keep my action to just under 9.5.

Pick: Under 9.5 (-136)

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Chris Amberley

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