Kentucky vs Ole Miss Odds, Lines, and Spread


Jarkel Joiner dribbling with right hand

Mississippi’s Jarkel Joiner plays against Vanderbilt in an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Feb. 27, 2021, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

  • Kentucky (8-14, 7-8 SEC) battles Ole Miss (13-10, 8-8 SEC) on Tuesday, March 2 at 9pm ET
  • Some of Kentucky’s best wins have come on the road this season, while some of Ole Miss’s best wins have come at home
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

The 2020-21 season hasn’t been one of Kentucky’s best in recent memory. In fact, despite the slightly shortened season, the Wildcats are one loss away from setting the high watermark in the past 32 years.

Still, they’ve pulled out some blue blood magic on the road this season, toppling solid opponents on a handful of occasions. That’s what they’ll be trying to do Tuesday when they’re hosted by Ole Miss at 9pm ET.

Kentucky vs Ole Miss Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Kentucky +1 (-106) +100 Over 130 (-110)
Ole Miss -1 (-116) -118 Under 130 (-110)

Odds as of March 1st, 2021 at FanDuel.

How They’ve Fared Recently

It’s funny that some of Kentucky’s best wins have come on the road this season, because Ole Miss has done some of its best work at home. That includes victories over #25 Tennessee, Missouri (48th in KenPom) and Auburn (64th).

The Rebels are a disastrous deep shooting team (28.5% from 3-point range, 339th in NCAA Division I), which is why they don’t shoot a lot from the outside (306th in D-I in 3-point rate). Instead, they rely on their strong offensive rebound rate (26th in D-I) to create chances for them to finish inside.

Defensively, Ole Miss wreaks havoc with its turnover creation. The Rebels are eighth in D-I in turnover rate, and they’ve forced 12-plus turnovers in each of their past 12 games.

Kentucky figures to be another 12-plus turnover victim, as they’re averaging 14 turnovers per game on offense over the past eight games (their 20.6%  turnover rate is 254th in D-I).

The Wildcats are equally atrocious on offense, with a 46.6% effective field goal percentage (302nd in D-I). Like Ole Miss, their offensive rebound rate is high (31st in D-I), but they don’t do much with it. From an offensive standpoint, this game could be a complete slog.

ATS Analysis

Kentucky is 6-14-2 against the spread this year, but they’re a much better 3-5-2 ATS on the road (still not great, though). The Wildcats are 1-2-1 ATS in their past four road games, but they’re 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight games overall.

Ole Miss is 12-11 ATS this season, which includes a 7-5 ATS home record. Recently, Ole Miss has covered in three of its past four home games.

The under is compelling in this matchup, as it has combined to hit in 30 of 45 games (66.7%) combined between these teams.

Head-to-Head Matchup

For conference foes, Kentucky and Ole Miss do not mingle very often. Tuesday marks their first meeting of the year, which has been the norm for these teams since 2015.

Last year, Kentucky won, 67-62, but Ole Miss covered on the road as 10-point underdogs. Obviously the circumstances are different this year, as the spread indicates this is nearly a pick ’em game.

And with that, we’ll pick Ole Miss. They have simply been the better team this season (far from a typical season in that regard), and their 8-4 straight up home record is encouraging. Oh, and snag the under.

Pick: Ole Miss -1 (-116); Under 130 (-110)

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Jordan Horrobin

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