Segunda showdown to entertain
Las Palmas v Tenerife
Sunday November 15, 21:00
We had a mixed picture in Leipzig last night, as Germany’s 3-1 win over Ukraine saw our BTTS bet land within the first 23 minutes. However, Serge Gnabry missed a couple of presentable chances to score, and his failure took the edge off our success. We are still in position however to finish in profit this week if tonight goes according to plan.
We’ll zoom to the Canary Islands tonight, and land at Las Palmas. The club that has a pantheon including Vinny Samways and Kevin-Prince Boateng is taking on Tenerife in the Segunda Division, and my job is to show you that a price of 2.962/1 for Over 2.5 Goals is too big.
Las Palmas are currently closer to the dropzone than the promotion playoff spots, and that’s partially because they have the division’s joint-worst defence. Pepe Mel, formerly of West Brom, has seen his side leak 15 goals in 11 matches. They are no slouches in attack though – only the leaders Espanyol have scored more often. They are fourth in the Expected Goals table, and third if you just look at home form.
It’s no surprise to see that five of Las Palmas’ last six league games at the Estadio de Gran Canaria have featured at least three goals. Those matches have included a 5-1 win over Extremadura and a 3-3 draw with Fuenlabrada.
Tenerife are a bit more circumspect, and we could be put off by the fact that only one of their league games has seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land. However, it’s worth noting they have scored in seven of their 11 games, so they are more than capable of contributing to a decent game here. If you look solely at Tenerife’s away stats, they are second when it comes to Expected Goals, even though that hasn’t always translated to actual goals. In fact, Tenerife have the third-best overall xG figure in the division, so there’s a sense that a goal glut is coming soon.
I think there’s enough evidence here to allow us to take a swing at backing Over 2.5 Goals here at 2.962/1. If you want to be a bit more cautious, back Over 2.0 Goals in the Goal Lines market at 2.26/5. If the game has two goals, your stake is returned. If it has three or more, you get an odds-against winner.