Will Jared Goff and the Rams offense keep humming against Robert Saleh’s depleted defense?
Photo from @PFF (Twitter).
- The Los Angeles Rams could kill the San Francisco 49ers’ playoff hopes with a win tonight (8:20pm ET)
- Dalvin Cook was well on pace to make us money, but his injury left last week’s props 0-3
- See who we like to succeed in this crucial NFC West battle
The San Francisco 49ers snuffed out the Los Angeles Rams’ chances at the postseason with a 34-31 win in Week 16 last season. It may be early, but LA could essentially return the favor on Sunday Night Football this week. The Rams are favored by a field goal in this must-win game for the Niners.
Who will shine on the big stage this week? Let’s get into it.
Rams vs 49ers Player Props
|Passers||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TD|
|Jared Goff (LAR)||24.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||269.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||1.5 (Ov -196 | Un +152)|
|Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)||21.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||240.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||1.5 (Ov -128 | Un +100)|
|Rushers||Rush Attempts||Rush Yards||Rush + Receiving Yards|
|Darrell Henderson (LAR)||N/A||40.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||N/A|
|Malcolm Brown (LAR)||N/A||26.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||N/A|
|Raheem Mostert (SF)||N/A||72.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||86.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Receivers||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Robert Woods (LAR)||5.5 (Ov +124 | Un -158)||61.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)||22.5 (Ov -106 | Un -120)|
|Cooper Kupp (LAR)||5.5 (Ov +114 | Un -146)||65.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)||23.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)|
|Tyler Higbee (LAR)||3.5 (Ov +124 | Un -158)||34.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)||16.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)|
|George Kittle (SF)||5.5 (Ov -128 | Un +100)||65.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)||21.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)|
|Deebo Samuel (SF)||3.5 (Ov -150 | Un +118)||40.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||19.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)|
|Brandon Aiyuk (SF)||3.5 (Ov +126 | Un -162)||37.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||19.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)|
Odds taken Oct. 18 from DraftKings and FanDuel
Nothing To Goff At
Efficient Jared Goff has returned in 2020! The quarterback’s huge deal that seemed like an anchor around the Rams chances last season, suddenly doesn’t look so bad. Goff has the fifth-biggest contract AAV in the NFL this year and according to PFF, he’s playing up to that level.
Jared Goff top 5 QB via PFF https://t.co/mjMc9iyn4X
— ulises (@ulisesseses) October 16, 2020
The Rams quarterback has thrown for over 270 yards in three of five games this season, even though LA is the second-most run-heavy team in the NFL.
Jared Goff off play-action this season:
🔹 54 completions (1st)
🔹 690 yards (2nd) pic.twitter.com/NiH82aw3dc
— PFF (@PFF) October 18, 2020
But while he’s facing a 49ers defense that just got carved up for 350 yards through the air by Ryan Fitzpatrick, we’re going to short Goff in this spot, based on how this game-script should go.
We know Kyle Shanahan will be running the ball early and often to try and exploit the Rams’ weak run defense, and with that clock constantly moving, LA’s offense won’t get that many opportunities. Goff should have a fine night, I just don’t think he’ll be airing it out enough to hit his OVERs.
Pick: 1 unit on Goff UNDER 24.5 completions (-112)
Getting The Mostert Out Of This Matchup
Following that same game-script logic, the 49ers running backs should have a strong outing against that Rams D that ranks just 24th in DVOA vs the rush. Raheem Mostert showed no signs of rust in his return to action against Miami, turning 14 touches into 119 yards from scrimmage.
Raheem Mostert showed up for work yesterday: 11 rushes, 90 yards & 3 receptions, 29 yards. #49ers pic.twitter.com/WFP2aCxHaG
— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) October 12, 2020
Look for Mostert’s workload to increase this week as he gets back into the flow of things. Asking him to get 87 yards from scrimmage seems reasonable in this matchup, whether San Fran is leading or trailing.
Pick: 1 unit on Mostert OVER 86.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112)
Rams vs 49ers Scoring Props
|Team||Odds to Score 1st TD||Odds to Score Any TD|
|Raheem Mostert (SF)||+600||-148|
|Darrell Henderson (LAR)||+850||+100|
|Cooper Kupp (LAR)||+850||+105|
|George Kittle (SF)||+900||+120|
|Robert Woods (LAR)||+1000||+145|
|Cam Akers (LAR)||+1100||+150|
|Malcolm Brown (LAR)||+1200||+175|
|Deebo Samuel (SF)||+2000||+275|
|Tyler Higbee (LAR)||+2000||+300|
|Jerick McKinnon (SEA)||+2200||+300|
Put the Kittle On
Last time we had the 49ers in primetime, we won on George Kittle to score anytime. We’re going right back to that well tonight. The Rams have allowed three touchdowns to tight ends on the year, which is promising. But mostly, I’m making this play because it’s fun to have money on the best offensive player on the field to score at plus odds.
Rivalry games truly bring out the best in players:
George Kittle career stats against the Rams: 32 receptions, 537 receiving yards, & 3 TDs. | #49ers #FTTB pic.twitter.com/q0v9HbhS79
— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers) October 16, 2020
Kittle lit the Rams up for 13 catches, 182 yards and one score in their two meetings last year, so you may want to consider his other OVERs as well.
Pick: 1 unit on Kittle to score a TD anytime (+120)
Eric Thompson has been with SBD since 2015, serving as a sports betting expert in NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB. If you want someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes sports news and betting, Eric is your man. Having studied economics at university, he understands what value is and how to spot it.