Low-scoring encounter likely at Turf Moor


Burnley v Arsenal
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Burnley still need points for safety

Burnley continue to punch above their weight under the excellent leadership of Sean Dyche but his side still have work to do to secure their Premier League status. Sitting 15th in the table after 27 games, the Clarets have a six-point buffer over third-bottom Fulham but it is certainly not a comfortable advantage heading into the run-in.

Their attacking limitations have again been apparent with Burnley the second lowest scorers with just 19 goals this season. Dyche prides his teams on their solidity and a competitiveness which can trouble most of the teams in the competition. Burnley’s standards slipped last weekend after being thrashed 4-0 at Tottenham but Matej Vydra opened the scoring, with his first league goal since February 2020, as they earned a creditable 1-1 draw at home to third-placed Leicester on Wednesday night.

Improving Arsenal still targeting Europe

Arsenal endured a turbulent end to last year with Mikel Arteta facing intense pressure after a miserable run of results but recent signs have hinted the board was right to keep faith in the Spaniard. Defeats to Burnley and Everton left the team languishing in the bottom half and plenty were questioning Arteta’s position but his decision to put faith in his young players is starting to pay off.

The increased involvement of Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith Rowe has added an energy and enthusiasm to the side and Arsenal recently progressed in the Europa League after edging out Benfica in a dramatic tie. The Gunners also recovered from conceding an early goal to win 3-1 at Leicester in their last game. It was an impressive performance and a sign of the dynamism Arteta wants his side to produce on a consistent basis. Arsenal are currently tenth and the team will need a very strong end to the season to qualify for Europe via the league.

Aubameyang.jpg

Arsenal deserve to be favourites for this weekend’s game but their odds of just 1.664/6 look extremely skinny and the visitors are hard to trust at that price.

Arteta’s side have a solid away record with six wins but 11 victories from 26 matches overall is hardly a record to put your faith in.

Leicester went off a significantly bigger price at Turf Moor in midweek and Arsenal just do not have the results to back up their slender odds.

Burnley are 6.25/1 to claim a victory this weekend and this certainly offers a great deal more value. The Clarets have already beaten Arsenal once this season but this came at a time when their opponents, who were reduced to ten men after Granit Xhaka was sent off, were at a low ebb. One win in eight league games is enough to swerve taking a chance on the hosts.

The draw is available at 4.1 and this is the option that appeals the most at the odds. Burnley have drawn their last four matches and Dyche’s side will set out to make this awkward for their opponents. Last season’s game at Turf Moor ended in a goalless draw and the stalemate certainly warrants consideration.

Burnley’s home games have seen the joint fewest goals in the Premier League this season, with just 26 scored in 13 games at Turf Moor so far. It would be no surprise if this match followed suit with the hosts proving hard to break down.

There has been just one goal scored in the last two clashes between Burnley and Arsenal with another low-scoring contest expected this weekend.

Under 2.5 goals stands out at odds of 1.9420/21 in a match where Burnley will look to stifle their opponents.

Arsenal captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has a sensational record against this weekend’s opponents and can continue the scoring streak this weekend. Aubameyang has scored seven goals in six appearances against Burnley and the Arsenal striker even netted an own goal in December’s defeat. It is his best scoring record against any team in league. The striker has opened the scoring, at the right end, in three of those meetings and is a strong each way bet to be the first goalscorer at 7/2.

Opta Stat

Burnley are looking to complete their first league double over Arsenal since the 1962-63 campaign, following their 1-0 win at the Emirates earlier this season.

Follow Simon’s bets on Twitter @watfordtipster