LSU vs Alabama SEC Title Game Odds and Picks

Darius Miles and Herb Jones celebrate

Alabama forward Darius Miles (12) and Alabama forward Herb Jones (1) celebrate a dunk by Alabama forward Alex Reese (3) against LSU during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2021, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)

  • The Alabama Crimson Tide play the LSU Tigers in the SEC Tournament final on Sunday (1pm ET)
  • Alabama won both meetings in the regular season but anything can happen in March
  • See the odds, spread, analysis, and best bet, below

The SEC Conference Championship will be decided when the Alabama Crimson Tide (18-8, 12-6 SEC) meet the LSU Tigers (18-8, 12-6 SEC) Sunday. Tip-off is scheduled for 1pm ET at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. The game will be televised on ESPN.

The Crimson Tide has owned this series lately, winning eight of the last 11 meetings between the schools, including a 78-60 beatdown in the last one on February 3rd. Alabama is favored by 5.5 points in this matchup.

LSU vs Alabama Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
LSU Tigers +5.5 (-116) +190 U 157.5 (-110)
Alabama Crimson Tide -5.5 (-106) -230 O 157.5 (-110)

Odds as of March 13th at FanDuel

Alabama earned a spot in this game by beating the Tennessee Volunteers 73-68 on Saturday. They were 3.5-point favorites and only covered four points for the final 3.7 seconds of the game.ย LSU took out the Arkansas Razorbacks 78-71 on Saturday to land in the title game.

Alabama Survives

Being ranked number six in the country and finishing first in the regular season SEC standings will put a target on a team. The Crimson Tide passed their first test of the SEC Tournament by blasting Mississippi State. On Saturday, they got past the Tennessee Volunteers but the game didnโ€™t go exactly as planned. It took the full 40 minutes to beat the Volunteers.

Tennessee came out ready to go in this one, dropping 40 points on the Crimson Tide in the first half. They led by nine at halftime and appeared to be well on their way to an upset, but Alabama was having none of it.

The Crimson Tide have the top-ranked defense in terms of efficiency in the nation according to KenPom and thatโ€™s the one that showed up in the second half. They held the Volunteers to 28 second-half points en route to the win and cover for their backers.

LSU Might Be For Real

One team that slips through the cracks of the NCAA Basketball national landscape is the LSU Tigers. KenPom has them ranked 29th in the country but thereโ€™s only six offenses better in terms of efficiency. They average 82.4 points per game which is also good for sixth in the country. But for all the good their offense has done for them, their defense may be the reason they will play for an SEC title on Sunday.

Arkansas came into this one with the 34th-best offense and 15th-best defense in the land as far as efficiency. On the season, they averaged 82.8 points per game, so the fact that the Tigers held them to 71 was a major accomplishment. After taking the first half 40-37, LSU took the air out of the ball in the second half and the strategy worked brilliantly.

Cameron Thomas played the entire game for the Tigers and scored 21 points to go along with three steals and a block.

Best Betting Angle

Alabama and LSU played twice this season and the Crimson Tide slaughtered the Tigers both times. The first one was a 105-75 laugher, while the second one was a little closer at 78-60. Neither time did LSU look like a team that could beat Alabama.

LSU got past Arkansas in large part to 47% shooting from beyond the arc. That is highly unlikely to happen on Sunday, as Alabama has the 5th-best three-point defense in the country. They hold teams to an average of 28.2% from distance and if that holds true Sunday, they will roll LSU for the third time this season.

The pick: Alabama -5.5 (-110)

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John Hyslop