Lugo to bring goals to Gran Canaria

Las Palmas v Lugo
Segunda Division
Thursday 1 April, 20:00 BST kick-off

We’re off to the Canary Islands on Thursday (I know, if only!) with Gran Canaria side Las Palmas hosting Lugo in their Segunda Division match-up.

You’d think in these times that a trip to Gran Canaria would be a delight for anyone, but Lugo have a severe bout of travel sickness this season and struggle anytime they play away from their Galician home in the north west of Spain.

There’s only four points between them in the table, but Lugo have just two wins away from home, both against sides below them in the table, meaning they have it all to do to grab a result on Thursday.

Las Palmas are 2.01/1 straight up to win this one, which they should do given Lugo’s away day woes, but we’re talking about two mid-table sides in the second tier of Spanish football, playing in mid-week.

The warning signs are obvious, and it’s not that you could find a strong case for Lugo springing a 3.613/5 upset, it’s that you just can’t trust such a sketchy home side even against an outfit without an away win in the league since October.

What we can trust, hopefully, is that the goals will come – as they often do when Lugo come to town. Fourteen of Lugo’s 31 games this season have seen both teams score, but the contrast is dramatic between home and away with 10 of those coming on the road.

Las Palmas, for their part, have seen both teams score in eight of their 15 home league games this season – that’s just sixth best in the league but it’s happened in three of the last five and having such helpful opponents visiting boosts their chances further.

It’s 2.26/5 for both teams to score here, which is the outsider of the two but certainly backable given the stats.

The over 2.5 numbers are pretty good with Las Palmas being fourth overall and at home and Lugo being fourth away, but it’s landed in just two of seven in Gran Canaria and in three of seven for Lugo’s away league games.

It’s 2.56/4 but comes with more risk, and especially when Lugo have seen both teams score in their last five league games in a row, a goal at both ends looks the better route to profit.