Markets looking accurate for fourth round matches

Korda a winner as underdogs cause surprises

There was a fascinating day’s play on Monday with our pick, Sebastian Korda, not only covering the handicap but easing to a straight-set win over Aslan Karatsev. In other underdog wins, Marin Cilic also won 2-0 against Lorenzo Musetti, while Hubert Hurkacz prevailed over Denis Shapovalov by the same scoreline.

The three tournament favourites, Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas, are around or below 1.201/5 to get wins against Frances Tiafoe, Marin Cilic and Lorenzo Sonego, respectively, and the prices on these three players look about right – there are certainly no major discrepancies in my view.

Isner the best of a bad bunch for value today

Unfortunately, that’s a theme for today’s schedule with the markets looking pretty accurate with the current pricing and there aren’t any major value spots at all, or even, realistically, minor ones. The best of a bad bunch, in my opinion, would be John Isner at 2.767/4 for his meeting with Roberto Bautista-Agut.

Isner turns 36 next month but still retains a strong serve, holding almost 94% of the time on hard court in the last 18 months. Even in the later years of his career, Isner can still cause a shock simply by holding serve and winning tiebreaks, and this might have to be the route he takes against Bautista-Agut today.

The problem is in these slow conditions, and against an opponent who is above-average on return, tiebreaks are less likely. I have no breaks in the first set at around a 30% chance, which is pretty low for an Isner hard court match.

Ruusuvuori versus Sinner the match of the day

The opposite, return-orientated dynamic to Isner is Diego Schwartzman, and his match against Sebastian Korda looks to be the match which has the greatest potential to have breaks and in-play swings. Schwartzman is 1.715/7 to get the win, which looks very slightly short, but not abundantly so, against an opponent with extremely high potential and who is already an above-average hard courter at main tour level.

In other matches, the most fascinating match to me looks like the one between Emil Ruusuvuori and Jannik Sinner. Sinner edged Karen Khachanov several days ago, again winning a tiebreak, and meets Ruusuvuori who is a player of extremely high potential himself albeit one who is lower profile. Sinner is 1.4740/85, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this match was close.

With Taylor Fritz a marginal favourite over Alexander Bublik, it’s between these four young players to win quarter two and set up a semi-final probably against tournament favourite Medvedev. The door is open for one of these quartet to make big gains up the rankings this week.


Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings