Marlins vs Phillies Odds, Picks and Probable Pitchers


Andrew McCutchen celebrating with Bryce Harper

Philadelphia Phillies’ Andrew McCutchen (22) celebrates with Bryce Harper (3) after hitting a solo home run in the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Atlanta Braves, Saturday, April 10, 2021, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

  • The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies begin a four-game weekend series with a Friday doubleheader
  • Sandy Alcantara, Miami’s starter in the opener of the twinbill, is 5-2 with a 2.41 against the Phillies in his career
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction for the game

The Miami Marlins (39-50, 17-29 away) and Philadelphia Phillies (44-24, 24-16 home) begin a four-game weekend series with a Friday doubleheader at Citizens Bank Park.

For a team that seldom scores, the Marlins are sure stacking up runs when they face the Phillies this season. Averaging just 3.92 runs per game, the Marlins are the 28th most productive offensive in MLB.

However, put the Phillies in the opposing dugout and Miami starts producing runs like the Marlins were the 1927 Yankees. The fish are scoring 4.55 runs per game in nine meeting with Philadelphia during the 2021 season. They’ve enjoyed games with run production of 11 and 9 and two other contests in which they scored six times.

Marlins vs Phillies Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Miami Marlins -120 -1.5 (+145) O 6.5 (-105)
Philadelphia Phillies +100 +1.5 (-165) U 6.5 (-115)

Odds as of July 15th at DraftKings.

Overall, Miami holds a 5-4 edge straight up against the Phillies this season. The two teams have split six games at Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park.

Six of nine Philadelphia-Miami games this season have gone under. The underdog has proven to be the victor in all but three of those nine Marlins-Phillies games.

Launching a seven-game road trip, the Marlins are 5-5 over their past 10 games.

Alcantara vs  Moore

5-8 Record 0-1
3.09 ERA 5.40
3.23 xERA 5.93
1.12 WHIP 1.64
3.00 SO/W Ratio 1.41

2021 Cy Young Odds Tracker

Alcantara Excellent Against Philadelphia

The biggest difference between the Marlins and the Phillies is on the pitcher’s mound. Miami’s team era of 3.43 is fifth-best in baseball. Philadelphia owns a 4.43 team ERA. That’s 18th in the majors.

Alcantara is a big part of that pitching success story for Miami. His numbers don’t do justice to the type of season he’s enjoying. The right-hander is just 5-8. However, he shows a 3.09 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP through 116.2 innings of work.

Alcantara is in the top 5% of the NL in barrel percentage (3.6). Four of Alcantara’s five wins this season have been earned on the road. He’s 1-1 against the Phillies but again, is deserving of a better fate. In those two starts, Alcantara shows a 1.28 ERA.

In his most recent start against Philadelphia, Alcantara held Philadelphia batters to two earned runs over eight innings but was the victim of a 4-2 loss. In his last start at Philadelphia, the 6-foot-5, 200-pounder twirled six innings of two-hit shutout ball en route to a 6-0 victory.  He’s struck out 13 against four walks issued over those 14 innings pitched.

During his career when facing the Phillies, Alcantara is 5-2 with a 2.41 ERA over 52.1 innings pitched. He’s held the Phillies to a .228 batting average and a 1.06 WHIP.

In this season’s two starts, Alcantara has proven even more effective. He’s checked Philly hitters on a .167 batting average and 0.57 WHIP.

Best Bet for Marlins vs Phillies

Phillies southpaw Matt Moore, who’s facing Alcantara, has been every bit as inconsistent as his 5.40 ERA and 1.64 WHIP would indicate. Lately, though, he’s proven to be more effective.

In his last three starts, Moore has allowed two or fewer runs in each appearance. Over his last seven trips to the bump, the lefty shows a 3.20 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.  This will be his seventh start among 13 appearances.

Moore is 2-2 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.48 WHIP lifetime against the Marlins. In his lone appearance against Miami this season, Moore allowed two earned runs in two innings. That leaves him with a 9.00 ERA. He also shows a 2.00 WHIP while allowing Miami batters to hit off him at a .375 clip.

Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline (-120).

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Robert Duff

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