Matteo Berrettini vs Cameron Norrie Odds & Prediction


Matteo Berrettini vs Cameron Norrie

Matteo Berrettini of Italy celebrates winning a point against Alex de Minaur of Australia during their semifinal singles tennis match at the Queen’s Club tournament in London, Saturday, June 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)

  • Top seeded Matteo Berrettini is the favorite in Sunday’s Cinch Championships Finals
  • Cameron Norrie is seeking a third win over a top 5 seed at the Queens Club, and his first career singles title
  • How can we find betting value when Berrettini and Norrie meet for the first time?

While Matteo Berrettini and Cameron Norrie are both 25 years old, since turning pro they have starkly different results playing on sod. Though Berrettini has won a tournament and always been confident on grass, prior to this year Norrie had never flourished on the green stuff. That said, both are unbeaten in their first Wimbledon tune-up of the season, and they play for a title on Sunday.

Berrettini has looked every bit of the top seed at the Cinch Championships, winning each set he has played. Norrie lost his opening set of the tournament, but has won eight straight since.

Let’s look carefully at the final match-up and consider some of the betting options.

Matteo Berrettini vs Cameron Norrie Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Matteo Berrettini -3.5 games (+104) -278 Over 22.5 games (-118)
Cameron Norrie +3.5 games (-129) +220 Under 22.5 games (-106)

All odds as of June 19 at DraftKings

Berrettini vs Norrie History

This is the first meeting between the pair. Berrettini is 21-7 all time on grass courts and 16-2 since the start of 2019. He won on the sod two years ago in Stuttgart. Norrie is 12-18 all time on grass.

Berrettini vs Norrie Head-to-Head Stats

9 ATP Ranking 41
0-0 Head-to-Head 0-0
25 Age 25
21-6 2021 record 25-12
4 Career Singles Titles 0
0 Grand Slam Titles 0

Berrettini Is Doing an Awful Lot Right

Maybe Berrettini isn’t receiving the hype of other young players because he has yet to get over the hump, to make a major final. That said, his resume is improving by the tournament.

This year Berrettini has lost six times. Four of the setbacks are against top tier players. Recently, he fell to Novak Djokovic in five sets in the quarterfinals of the French Open, lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Rome, dropped a three set final to Alexander Zverev in Madrid, and won the Serbia Open.

Berrettini is the first Italian to reach the fourth round in every Grand Slam tournament. The Rome native has played at Wimbledon twice, winning one match in 2018 and prospering three times the following year.

In London Berrettini needed tiebreaks in each set against Stefano Travaglia, took out Andy Murray 6-3, 6-3, got by Daniel Evans, and in the semis clipped fourth seed Alex de Minaur 6-4, 6-4.

Has Norrie Figured Out Grass?

Norrie was born in South Africa but has lived in London for most of the last decade. Seeking his first career singles title, he is playing great right now in his home town.

After dropping the first set to Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the first round at the Cinch Championships, Norrie has been perfect. He took out fifth seed Aslan Karatsev in the second round, Jack Draper in the quarters, and beat second seed Denis Shapovalov 7-5, 6-3 on Saturday.

Norrie won two matches at Roland Garros before falling to Rafael Nadal. He lost to Tsitsipas in the Final at Lyon, and before that fell to Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the Final at Estoril.

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How to Bet the Final

Both players are playing very well right now. That said, Norrie really took advantage of the draw in the semifinals. Shapovalov failed to finish his quarterfinal match on Friday, had to turn around and play a set to begin Saturday, and just hours later go back on the court to face a rested Norrie.

Berrettini is ranked in the top 10 for a reason, and has done nothing to suggest he isn’t going to win this tournament and be a factor at Wimbledon. While hats off to Norrie who is both going good and has completely turned around his grass form, laying 3.5 games with Berrettini seems very reasonable for something like a 6-3, 6-4 result.


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Dave F.

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