Mets vs Phillies Odds, Lines, and Pick (April 5)


Jacob deGrom delivers a pitch

New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom (48) throws during the first inning of a spring training baseball game against the Houston Astros, Tuesday, March 16, 2021, in Port St. Lucie, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

  • The New York Mets open their season as underdogs on the road against Philadelphia on Monday night. (7 pm ET)
  • Mets ace Jacob deGrom will get his first start of the season against a Phillies team fresh off a three-game sweep of Atlanta
  • Read below for a preview and pick on the game

Through their first three games, the Philadelphia Phillies have made a compelling case to be considered the class of the National League East.

After smothering the Atlanta Braves in a sweep to start the season, the Phils are looking to continue their home momentum against the New York Mets. Philadelphia is the underdog on Monday to kick things off, as Jacob deGrom will take the mound for New York, and the Phillies are likely to start Matt Moore.

Mets vs Phillies Odds

Team Runline Moneyline at DraftKings Total
NY Mets -1.5 (-122) -225 O 7.5 (-113)
Phillies +1.5 (+104) +190 U 7.5 (-107)

Odds as of April 4th.

New York is just 4-6 overall in its last 10 games against Philadelphia, and the two sides combined to go over the projected run total half of the time in that stretch. All of the Phillies’ games this season have also finished under the projected total.

Phillies Bats Still Warming Up

Philadelphia’s most impressive offensive performance in its opening series came on Saturday with Zack Wheeler on the mound. Wheeler turned in a dominant pitching performance, but he also ended up having the best day of anyone on his team at the plate.

Wheeler slapped in two RBI in two separate plate appearances, while the rest of Philly’s lineup could only muster six hits. Prior to Sunday’s series finale, Phillies hitters had only been .228 at the plate, and even though they were better on Easter Sunday, the team only managed two runs in the win. Backup catcher Andrew Knapp hit the only home run for the Phils so far this season, but J.T. Realmuto should be back in the lineup on Monday.

Outside of one shaky performance against Toronto during the spring, Moore showed well for himself in three starts. As a team, the Mets hit left-handed pitchers reasonably well in 2020, so Moore is going to need to be sharp. The Mets were also one of the top-hitting teams in their first at-bats against relief pitchers last season, and in Moore’s most recent season as a full-time starter in 2017, he averaged just under 5.2 innings pitched per start.

Mets Career Stats vs Moore

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG.
Albert Almora Jr. 6 1 0 1 0 .167
Michael Conforto 4 1 0 0 2 .250
J.D. Davis 2 0 0 0 1 .000
Francisco Lindor 13 8 1 3 0 .615
James McCann 5 0 0 0 2 .000
Kevin Pillar 11 1 0 0 2 .091
Jonathan Villar 5 3 1 1 1 .600

deGrom’s New Opening Day

One of the most anticipated pitching matchups on Opening Day was set to be between deGrom and Washington’s Max Scherzer. The whole series with the Nationals was postponed the day before it was to start after the announcement that multiple Nats had tested positive for COVID-19 following their final spring training game.

Phillies Career Stats vs deGrom

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG.
Alec Bohm 4 0 0 0 3 .000
Didi Gregorius 19 3 0 1 4 .158
Bryce Harper 38 11 2 2 13 .289
Adam Haseley 2 0 0 1 1 .000
Rhys Hoskins 16 3 0 4 6 .188
Andrew McCutchen 22 5 1 1 7 .227
J.T. Realmuto 25 4 0 2 9 .160
Jean Segura 19 4 0 1 5 .211

The NL Cy Young favorite was as sharp as ever during Spring Training, and should be primed for a big debut. deGrom’s most recent outing against Philadelphia last September ended after just two innings, when a hamstring injury was too much to pitch through and he left with a no-decision.  Earlier in the month, he was the winning pitcher at home in a 14-1 rout of Philly.

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Fade the Phils

Without Aaron Nola or Wheeler on the mound against deGrom, Philadelphia isn’t likely to get out in front of the Mets early, but the Phillies have been sharp on defense to start the year. Moore pitched well enough last season in Japan, but between his time away from the majors and a bit of a layoff for the Mets since the end of Spring Training, there are more variables to consider than usual.

The total of 7.5 runs is the lowest projection among all games on Monday’s slate, but the Mets doing most of the scoring in this one is the most likely outcome. While the under provides the best value at -107, the combination of deGrom on the mound and the Mets’ offensive potential makes them a sound choice to clear the -1.5 runline.

Pick: New York Mets -1.5 (-122)


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Nick Krueger

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