Michigan State vs Purdue Odds and Picks

Tom Izzo sitting with mask on

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo watches before an NCAA college basketball game against Nebraska in East Lansing, Mich., Saturday, Feb. 6, 2021. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

  • The Michigan State Spartans (10-8, 4-8 Big Ten) take on the Purdue Boilermakers (13-8, 8-6 Big Ten) on Tuesday, February 16th 
  • Each team is looking to get back into the win column after taking losses their last time out
  • See the odds, spread, analysis, and best bet below

Two middle-to-bottom of the pack Big Ten teams will do battle when the Michigan State Spartans head to West Lafayette, Indiana to play the Purdue Boilermakers on Tuesday night.

The Spartans had won two games in a row before getting boat raced by the Iowa Hawkeyes 88-58 on Saturday.

Purdue is still in the AP Top 25 but is likely to drop out after losing two of their last three games, the latest a 71-68 setback to the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

The Boilermakers are in complete command of this series recently, winning and covering each of the last three meetings. The current odds for this matchup are showing Purdue as a 6.5-point favorite.

Michigan State vs #24 Purdue Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Michigan State Spartans +6.5 (-110) +200 Over 134.5 (-115)
Purdue Boilermakers -6.5 (-110) -265 Under 134.5 (-105)

Odds as of Feb 15th at FanDuel.

Michigan State Needs to Respond

The Spartans seemed to have turned a corner heading into last Saturday’s game with the Iowa Hawkeyes. They had won two straight games, holding both teams to under 60 points. The defensive effort didn’t last long because the skies opened up and the Hawkeyes made it rain from opening tip until final whistle.

Iowa is a good three point shooting team, connecting on 39.6% of their attempts but they shifted into another gear for this one. Led by Joe Wieskamp’s 5-for-7 day, the Hawkeyes went 13-of-15 overall from long range.

They pulled away in the first five minutes and never looked back, taking a 46-27 lead into halftime. The second half was more of the same, leading to three of five Spartan starters not even cracking 20 minutes of playing time.

Purdue Flies Under the Radar

The Boilermakers are currently sixth in the Big Ten with six losses in conference, yet they are ranked 24th in the AP Top 25 Poll. The voters seem to give credence to the strength of Purdue’s schedule which has been the sixth toughest in the country in terms of opponent efficiency according to KenPom. They had another tough opponent in Minnesota the last time they played.

Purdue could have and should have won this game with a five-point lead with two minutes to play. They had multiple opportunities to put the game away but Minnesota’s Marcus Carr would not go away. The guard scored eight of his 19 points in the final 1:08 and Sasha Stefanovic sailed a would be game-tying three at the buzzer to secure the win for the Golden Gophers.

Best Betting Angle

The last time these two teams met the total was set at 141.5 and they didn’t come close to that number, combining for 109 points as  both offenses stalled. Neither team cracked 40% shooting from the field and only went over 100 points because they combined to take 44 free throws.

The first game was played at a snail’s pace and this one could be just as slow. The Boilermakers play at the 286th fastest pace in the nation and they’ve played at a slightly slower pace in their last three contests. The Spartans may have had troubles with Iowa’s offense, but Purdue is in no way comparable to Iowa offensively.

If this game is played at Purdue’s normal pace, it will be hard for them to cover anything over six. Michigan State is likely to be able to score into the 60’s while keeping Purdue in that same range. The Spartans and the points seem to be way to go in this one.

The pick: Michigan State +6.5 (-110) 

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John Hyslop