MLB Player Award Futures Odds


Los Angeles Angels' Mike Trout watches a home run

Los Angeles Angels’ Mike Trout watches his two-run home run during the sixth inning against the Texas Rangers in a baseball game Sunday, April 7, 2019, in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Michael Owen Baker)

  • The 2021 MLB season starts on April 1st and will consist of the usual 162 regular-season games, if all goes according to plan
  • Oddsmakers and bettors have had a couple months to set the market for the six main player-award odds
  • See who is favored in the preseason futures for MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year before Opening Day

The 2021 MLB season starts Thursday, April 1st, with all 30 teams in action.

Sportsbooks have had player-award futures open for a couple months and sharps have had a chance to put their money down and move the odds.

The tables below show the odds to win AL and NL MVP, AL and NL Cy Young, and AL and NL Rookie of the Year on the eve of Opening Day.

AL and NL MVP Odds

AL Players Odds Odds NL Players
Mike Trout (LAA) +225 +750 Mookie Betts (LAD)
Alex Bregman (HOU) +1200 +750 Juan Soto (WSH)
Aaron Judge (NYY) +1200 +800 Ronald Acuna (ATL)
Jose Ramirez (CLE) +1200 +800 Cody Bellinger (LAD)
Matt Chapman (OAK) +1500 +850 Fernando Tatis Jr (SD)
Anthony Rendon (LAA) +1500 +1200 Nolan Arenado (STL)
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) +2000 +1200 Freddie Freeman (ATL)
Jose Abreu (CHW) +2500 +1200 Francisco Lindor (NYM)
Tim Anderson (CHW) +2500 +1200 Christian Yelich (MIL)
Vlad Guerrero Jr (TOR) +2500 +1500 Bryce Harper (PHI)
Yoan Moncada (CHW) +2500 +1500 Corey Seager (LAD)
Luis Robert (CHW) +2500 +2200 Manny Machado (SD)
Gleyber Torres (NYY) +2500 +2500 Trevor Story (COL)
Rafael Devers (BOS) +3000 +3000 Ozzie Albies (ATL)
Yasmani Grandal (CHW) +3000 +3000 Kris Bryant (CHC)
Bo Bichette (TOR) +3300 +3000 Ketel Marte (ARI)
Xander Bogaerts (BOS) +3300 +3000 JT Realmuto (PHI)
DJ LeMahieu (NYY) +3300 +3000 Anthony Rizzo (CHC)
George Springer (TOR) +3300 +3300 Pete Alonso (NYM)
Jose Altuve (HOU) +4000 +3300 Javy Baez (CHC)

Odds as of March 30th at DraftKings.

For the 35th straight season, Mike Trout is the AL MVP favorite on day one. Alex Bregman, Aaron Judge, and Jose Ramirez are tied for a distant second. In terms of probability, Troutโ€™s +225 odds give him a 30.8% implied probability (โ€œIPโ€).ย  The +1200 odds for the trio of second-favorites carry an IP of just 7.7%, meaning the betting market says Trout is about four-times as likely to win MVP as any other player in the AL.

The NL odds areย much tighter, with five players between +750 and +850. Two have won MVPs before (Betts and Bellinger). Betts also finished second last year.

Curiously, Freddie Freeman, who took home 28 of 30 first-place votes in 2020, trails at +1200.

[crossspost]

AL and NL Cy Young Odds

AL Players Odds Odds NL Players
Gerrit Cole (NYY) +350 +425 Jacob deGrom (NYM)
Shane Bieber (CLE) +400 +700 Trevor Bauer (LAD)
Lucas Giolito (CHW) +450 +950 Max Scherzer (WSH)
Tyler Glasnow (TB) +950 +1000 Walker Buehler (LAD)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (TOR) +1300 +1200 Yu Darvish (SD)
Jose Berrios (MIN) +1700 +1200 Aaron Nola (PHI)
Lance Lynn (CHW) +1700 +1200 Blake Snell (SD)
Kenta Maeda (MIN) +1700 +1500 Luis Castillo (CIN)
Corey Kluber (NYY) +1800 +1500 Jack Flaherty (STL)
Dallas Keuchel (CHW) +2200 +1700 Max Fried (ATL)
Marco Gonzales (SEA) +2500 +2000 Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
Jesus Luzardo (OAK) +2500 +2000 Stephen Strasburg (WSH)
Luis Severino (NYY) +3000 +2200 Charlie Morton (ATL)
Zack Greinke (HOU) +3300 +2200 Brandon Woodruff (MIL)
Andrew Heaney (LAA) +3300 +2500 Dinelson Lamet (SD)
Nate Pearson (TOR) +3300 +2800 Patrick Corbin (WSH)
Frankie Montas (OAK) +3500 +3000 German Marquez (COL)
Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) +3500 +3000 Michael Soroka (ATL)
Dylan Bundy (LAA) +4000 +3300 Sonny Gray (CIN)
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) +4000 +3300 Sixto Sanchez (MIA)

Odds as of March 30th at DraftKings.

The AL Cy Young odds see the two most-obvious candidates at the top in Cole and Bieber. Bieber won unanimously last season and Cole lost a razor-close race to Justin Verlander the year before.

Close behind is young Lucas Giolito, whoโ€™s never finished higher than sixth in Cy Young voting.

The NL odds are telling recency to take a hike. Jacob deGrom is considerably shorter than anyone else despite finishing third last season with zero first-place votes. At +425, the 2018 and 2019-winner has an IP of 19.1%. Reigning Cy Young-winner Trevor Bauer has odds of +700, which is just a 12.5% IP.

AL and NL Rookie of the Year Odds

AL Players Odds Odds NL Players
Randy Arozarena (TB) +350 +350 Keโ€™Bryan Hayes (PIT)
Wander Franco (TB) +1000 +500 Sixto Sanchez (MIA)
Jarred Kelenic (SEA) +1000 +700 Dylan Carlson (STL)
Andrew Vaughn (CHW) +1100 +750 Ian Anderson (ATL)
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) +1200 +1200 Nick Lodolo (CIN)
Adley Rutschman (BAL) +1200 +1200 Cristian Pache (ATL)
Bobby Dalbec (BOS) +1500 +1500 Joey Bart (SF)
Casey Mize (DET) +1500 +1800 Spencer Howard (PHI)
Nate Pearson (TOR) +1500 +1800 Tyler Stephenson (CIN)
Garrett Crochet (CHW) +1800 +1800 Ha-Seong Kim (SD)
Luis Patino (TB) +1800 +2000 MacKenzie Gore (SD)
Alex Kirilloff (MIN) +2000 +2200 Miguel Amaya (CHC)
Nick Madrigal (CHW) +2000 +2200 Seth Beer (ARI)
Brendan McKay (TB) +2000 +3000 Jazz Chisholm (MIA)
Triston McKenzie (CLE) +2000 +3000 Adonis Medina (PHI)
Bobby Bradley (CLE) +2200 +3000 Seth Romero (WSH)
Deivi Garcia (NYY) +2200 +3300 Lewin Diaz (MIA)
Nolan Jones (CLE) +2500 +3300 Josiah Gray (LAD)
Michael Kopech (CHW) +2500 +3300 Pavin Smith (ARI)
Taylor Trammell (SEA) +2500 +3500 JJ Bleday (MIA)

Odds as of March 30th at DraftKings.

The Rookie of the Year odds in both leagues have relatively short favorites for notoriously hard-to-predict awards. But thatโ€™s somewhat justified this season. Both Randy Arozarena and Keโ€™Bryan Hayes already have a track record of success at the major-league level, though still qualify as rookies.

Arozarena took the postseason by storm in 2020, setting new MLB records for home runs, hits, and total bases in a single playoffs.

Hayes actually received some ROY votes last year despite only playing in 24 games for the Pirates. Why? Because he hit a preposterous .376 with five homers, seven doubles, and 11 RBI in just 85 at-bats.

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Sascha Paruk

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