MLS Cup Eastern Conference Semifinals

Carles Gil of the New England Revolution

New England Revolution midfielder Carles Gil (22) during the second half of an MLS soccer match against the Montreal Impact, Friday, Nov. 20, 2020, in Foxborough, Mass. The Revolution won 2-1. (AP Photo/Stew Milne)

  • Orlando City SC will host the New England Revolution at 3:00 pm EST on Sunday, November 29, 2020
  • The total goals scored between Orlando and New England has gone OVER 3.5 goals in nine of their past 11 all-time MLS matches
  • Read our Eastern Conference Semifinals preview and best bet below

After a play-in round win over Montreal and a first-round upset over Supporters’ Shield winners Philadelphia, the eighth-seeded New England Revolution travel to Orlando to face the fourth-seeded Lions in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

Orlando now has MLS Cup odds of +430, while New England is still a lengthy +2300.

Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution  ORL -0.75 (+170) | NE +0.75 (-205) ORL +120 | NE +210 | DRAW +245 Ov 2.5 (-132) | Un 2.5 (-103)

All odds taken Nov 26 at DraftKings

Orlando Advance in Wild Round One Game Over NYC

In maybe the craziest MLS experience you’ll get, Orlando City advanced past New York City FC in Round One during a penalty shoot-out. The match began and ended with PKs and offered plenty of talking points in between.

Nani opened the scoring early with a PK just five minutes in, however, New York was quick to draw level just three minutes later with a headed goal from Maxime Chanot off a corner kick. It looked like we may see a track meet, but despite many attempts from both sides, no more goals were scored during regulation.

Orlando’s task was made harder when Ruan took a red card in the 87′ minute, forcing Orlando to play out ten minutes of stoppage time as well as extra-time down a man.

After New York’s Maxi Moralez missed his first kick in PKs, all the following shooters on both sides would score heading into round five. And while Orlando thought they had won when keeper Pedro Gallese stopped Valentin Castellanos, replays showed he had come off his line early to make the save. The infraction gave him his second yellow card of the match, forcing what everyone thought would be an appearance by Brian Rowe.

Not so. After a very lengthy debate, it was decided Orlando was out of subs and needed to send right-back Rodrigo Schlegel between the sticks. Not surprisingly, Castellanos would finally shoot again and wound up scoring. After all this, it still came down to Nani being able to win the match with the final shot for Orlando, which he missed.

So it was off to sudden death where both teams scored in round six, before Schlegel came up huge with a save in round seven. Unsure if they thought they won or if they were just excited by the defender’s heroics, the Lions’ players had to be cleared from the field for celebrating. This, before Benji Michel finally scored the ultimate game-winning goal to send Orlando to the semis. Wow. Just another day in MLS.

The win gives Orlando four wins in their past five matches.

New England Finally Defeat Philadelphia

Bruce Arena, the winningest coach in MLS playoff history, ensured his Revolution side didn’t lose to the Union for the fifth time this season. On Tuesday, they went to Philadelphia in Round One and came away as 2-0 victors. The teams had met on five occasions this season with Philadelphia dominating with four wins and a draw.

However, Carles Gil missed some of those meetings and on Tuesday he was back and made a huge impact. Gil assisted on both Revolution goals setting up Adam Buksa and Tajon Buchanan in the 26′ and 30′ minutes.

The Revolution are now on a small roll having also won last Friday in the play-in round defeating the Montreal Impact 2-1. Another match where Gil had an impact with the game’s opening goal.

They lost to Philadelphia on Decision Day, but beat DC United 4-3 the game prior, now giving them three wins in four.

Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution

11-8-4 Regular Season Record 8-8-7
40 / 32 Goals For / Expected Goals 26 / 33
25 / 25.7 Goals Against / Expected Goals Against 25 / 27
261 / 95 Shots / Shots on Target 332 / 102
252 Crosses 331
50.3% Average Possession 51.2%

Orlando City vs New England Best Bet

At home at Exploria Stadium, the Lions have been money going 7-3-1 (WDL) with that lone defeat coming on Decision Day to Nashville. At home, Orlando was usually able to find their scoring boots, tallying 24 goals in 11 matches, while only conceding 12, an average of 3.3 GPG in their home matches.

But if any team could be up for the challenge of taking on Orlando on the road it could be New England. The Revs collected the most road points of any team in the league this year with 21 points. They were 6-3-4 (WDL) on their travels keeping things generally tight with 7/13 matches falling UNDER 2.5 total goals. They scored 16 while conceding 14, seeing their road matches averaging 2.3 GPG.

No doubt Orlando had a much stronger season. Though New England is rounding into form and with Gil back in the lineup they should match up well against the Lions. Knocking off the Supporters’ Shield champs in Philly will also fill them with plenty of confidence.

This one should be tight and there is value in the draw. With eight draws each, Orlando and New England were tied with Nashville and Chicago for the second-most draws in the league, only behind Houston’s nine. Should the match be drawn at half-time, it may also very well end drawn as well. Seven times this year when drawn at the half, the Revs have gone on to draw at the end of regulation.

While for Orlando, that number is six. Both near the top of the league with only Nashville (seven) and Dallas (six) having similar figures.

2020 MLS Cup Odds Tracker

These teams didn’t meet in 2020, but historically speaking, goals come aplenty when they meet up. Last year the teams drew 3-3 in Orlando and New England won 4-1 at home. They also met in the US Open Cup where Orlando won 2-1 in extra-time at home. In 11 all-time MLS meetings, both teams have scored in eight, while the total has gone OVER 2.5 in ten matches. In fact, the total has also gone OVER 3.5 on nine occasions. That combination of both teams scoring and OVER 2.5 goals has also cashed on eight occasions. You could bet that at Bet365 at +105 odds.

Orlando at home is tough to bet against. But down a starting defender and keeper against a New England side that’s starting to click gives some upset potential on the Revs. I’ll settle though for a tight first half and both teams scoring.

Pick: 1st Half Draw (+123), Both Teams to Score (-159)

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Ryan Metivier

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