Napoli vs AC Milan Play for Top Spot


AC Milan

Can AC Milan continue their undefeated streak in Serie A when they face a huge clash with Napoli on Sunday? Photo by @acmilan (Twitter).

  • Serie A Week 8 will be played out over Saturday and Sunday this weekend
  • Can AC Milan’s undefeated streak in Serie A continue against another side in strong form in Napoli?
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Week 8 here

With another international break wrapped up, the attention returns to domestic league play. Serie A Round 8 will see three matches played on Saturday, followed by another seven on Sunday.

Round 7 was a bit of an anomaly in Serie A with only 18 goals being scored overall. Totals went 7-3 to UNDER 2.5 goals, both teams scored in only four matches and home teams only won one game last round. While goalscoring was way way down for a typical week in Italy, home teams haven’t been particularly strong of late as more than four home wins haven’t been recorded during a round since Round 3.

Read on as we break down the weekend card with some of our best bets from Serie A Round 8.

Serie A Week 8 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Crotone vs Lazio +333 +300 -138
Spezia vs Atalanta +500 +400 -225
Juventus vs Cagliari -300 +450 +650
Fiorentina vs Benevento -188 +350 +425
Inter Milan vs Torino -300 +475 +650
Roma vs Parma -200 +350 +500
Sampdoria vs Bologna +145 +250 +170
Verona vs Sassuolo +200 +280 +110
Udinese vs Genoa -120 +270 +300
Napoli vs AC Milan +125 +250 +200

All odds taken Nov 19 at Bet365

Spezia vs Atalanta

Spezia, in 13th place, will host Atalanta, sixth-place at 12:00 pm EST Saturday afternoon.

The Aquile went into the break with their second win of the season, a 3-0 road win over fellow newcomers Benevento. That snapped a run of four winless matches. It was also their first clean sheet of the Serie A season, having previously conceded multiple goals in each match.

After three-straight wins to start the year, Atalanta entered the break with just one win in four and that came against the lowly Crotone. They shared the points with Inter Milan in a 1-1 draw in Round 6.

Spezia are allowing the second-most expected goals allowed at 15.3, only better than Benevento. That could be trouble against a potent Atalanta attack. While Spezia has held their own in Italy’s top-flight thus far, against the top sides the scores have been lopsided.

Spezia has lost 4-1 to Juventus, 3-0 to AC Milan and 4-1 to Sassuolo. Atalanta is plenty capable of putting up a similar scoreline and should win by at least two goals.

A smaller, yet maybe safer outcome of an Atalanta win, where they score at least two goals in the match can be had at -163 odds.

Pick: Atalanta -1.5 (+108)

2021 Serie A Odds Tracker

Sampdoria vs Bologna

It’s tenth-place Sampdoria (10 pts) hosting 14h-place Bologna (6 pts) at 9:00 am EST Sunday morning in Serie A.

Sampdoria had been undefeated in four (3-1-0) prior to Round 7 when they went to Cagliari and lost 2-0. A first-half red card to Tommaso Augello did them no favors which aided in Cagliari scoring twice in the second half.

Meanwhile, Bologna had lost three-straight prior to defeating Cagliari 3-2 at home in Round 6. In Round 7, they managed to contain a potent Napoli attack yet still fell 1-0 at home.

Each team has seen plenty of goals scored at both ends of the pitch this Serie A season. Sampdoria has both scored and conceded 11 times in seven matches while Bologna has scored 11 and allowed 13. All that sees Bologna matches averaging 3.4 GPG and Sampdoria matches averaging 3.1.

This is a fixture that heavily favors whichever side is playing at home over the years. In their past 23 head-to-heads in Serie A dating back to 2004, the home team is 15-7-1 (WDL). That lone road win actually came last season when Bologna was 2-1 winners on June 6. Bologna also won on their home ground by the same scoreline on October 19 and have now won the past three meetings between the teams.

Despite keeping things close, Bologna still conceded versus Napoli in their last match, stretching their streak to 40-straight league matches allowing a goal. There’s little reason to bet against Sampdoria keeping that crazy record going against Bologna this weekend.

However, Sampdoria themselves have kept just a single clean sheet this season and are winless in two. They have though, scored in each of their home matches.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-110)

Napoli vs AC Milan

The Round 8 schedule ends with the match of the weekend when third-place Napoli hosts first place AC Milan at 2:45 pm EST. The teams are separated by just three points and have both conceded just seven goals on the season. Milan has a slight edge in goals scored at 16-15.

When we last left Serie A, AC Milan drew 2-2 at home with Verona, while Napoli were 1-0 winners away to Bologna.

A road team rarely gets a win historically when these sides meet up. Going all the way back to April 1998, the teams have met across all competitions a total of 30 times and a road team has won just four. Even a smaller, more recent sample size tells a similar story, with home teams going 2-4-0 (WDL) in the past six and 7-5-2 in the past 14. Last season’s results saw two draws, 1-1 in Milan in November and 2-2 in Naples in July.

Given the porous history of road teams in this matchup, I’d be wary of backing an outright Milan win. However, while Milan’s epic undefeated run across all competitions finally came to an end against Lille in the Europa League, they are still undefeated in 19-straight Serie A matches. Incredibly they’ve also scored at least once in each of those matches and at least twice in 18/19.

Gennaro Gattuso’s Napoli are in fine form themselves. Napoli has just four losses in their past 12, with one coming from a defaulted loss to Juventus. Only one of those losses came at home, where they are 8-1-1 in their past ten.

Napoli did suffer a blow to their attack during the international break, with Victor Osimhen sustaining a dislocated shoulder while away with Nigeria.

While Napoli are not a team that often draws, having only done so twice in their past 30 Serie A matches, this could be a game where the teams cancel each other out. A straight draw at +250 is already a good price. But a scored draw at +333 adds extra value. If you just want to bet the ‘both teams to score’ market that pays out at -175.

Pick: Draw + Both Teams to Score (+333)

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Ryan Metivier

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