Napoli vs Inter Milan Odds & Prediction


Dries Mertens, Napoli, Celebrates

Napoli’s Dries Mertens celebrates after scores against Roma during the Italian Serie A soccer match between Roma and Napoli at Rome’s Olympic stadium, Sunday, March 21, 2021. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

  • Napoli and Inter Milan meet in Serie A on Sunday April 18th
  • League leaders Inter can take another step towards the title with victory
  • Read below for the latest odds, preview and betting pick

Napoli and Inter match up on Sunday April 18th in a game which will have a massive impact on the top four race in Serie A. With Atalanta facing Juventus this weekend, this is an opportunity for Napoli to put the pressure on, but they face league-leading Inter, who have lost just two league matches this term.

The club from Naples are winless in their last three matches against Inter. They are on a great run at home, however, winning their last six Serie A matches, including a 4-3 thriller against Crotone on April 3rd.

Inter’s form is strong too. Antonio Conte’s team have won five in a row on the road, helping them build an 11-point lead atop the Serie A table.

Napoli vs Inter Odds

Matchup Spread at DraftKings Moneyline Total
Napoli vs Inter NAP +0.5 (-159) | INT -0.5 (+133) NAP +200 | INT +133 | DRAW +245 Ov 2.5 (-113) | Un 2.5 (-110)

Odds as of Apr 17

Conte’s Winning Machine

Just as was the case at Juventus and Chelsea, Conte has built a winning machine. Inter have won 11 consecutive league matches. Much of this success is built on an immensely resilient defense, which ranks top of the league in expected goals conceded since the turn of the year.

Andrea Bastoni returns to the back three for this match, and the experienced Marcelo Brozovic will sit in the center of the midfield three. Conte has constructed the perfect springboard for Inter to attack from, which has led to Lautaro Martinez and Romelu Lukaku becoming one of the most fearsome attacking duos in world football. Across club and international action, Lukaku has 15 goal involvements in his last 11 matches.

The +132 price on Lukaku to score anytime represents great value. Napoli like to press high (ranking third in attacking third pressures this season), which will give Inter ample opportunity to play through the press and give Lukaku room to attack. Per Who Scored, Inter lead Serie A in counter-attack goals this season with six.

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Napoli’s Potent Attack

Only Atalanta have scored more Serie A goals in 2021 than Napoli. They haven’t failed to score in a league match since December. Inter shut Napoli out earlier in the season, but they rode their luck to get that clean sheet, and this Napoli team is a much scarier opponent than the one they faced in December.

Lorenzo Insigne has 15 goals this term, already the second-best mark of his career. He’s the center of so much of what Napoli do in attack, ranking in the top 10 in key passes per match. Their intensity and energy is a reflection of Gennaro Gattuso’s playing days. They are the clear leaders in shots created from defensive actions, and whichever combination of attacking players Gattuso starts, they will make Inter work to keep possession.

Big-money signing Victor Osimhen has hit some form with four goals since the start of March. He could prove to be the wildcard in Saturday’s match, and perhaps the difference maker as Napoli look to break down an Inter defense which hasn’t conceded two goals in a match since February 2nd.

Napoli vs Inter Serie A Statistics

5th Position 1st
65 Goals scored 69
54.4% Average possession 51.6%
53 yellows, 3 reds Cards 51 yellows, 1 red
16.9 Shots per match 14.5
54% Shots inside the area 61%
56.88 Understat expected points 61.75

Napoli Continue Home Form

Betting Napoli’s moneyline is a difficult concept. Inter haven’t lost in Serie A since January 6th. As good as Napoli’s form has been, the moneyline would need to be a slightly better price to represent value.

Still, though, the recent performances from Gattuso’s side make it hard to bet against them. Inter are a juggernaut, but Napoli are fiercely motivated by the top four battle, and they showed in the previous meeting that they can create chances against Conte’s defense.

Lukaku to score anytime and Napoli to avoid defeat are the two best bets for this game. The +450 on Napoli to win and both teams to score is tempting, too.

Pick: Napoli to win or draw (-159)


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Sam Cox

NBA MLB Soccer Sports Writer

NBA MLB Soccer