The Milwaukee Bucks are 9-1 at home in this year’s playoffs. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
- Game 6 of the NBA Finals goes Tuesday (July 20th) at 9 pm ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
- The Milwaukee Bucks can clinch the NBA Title with a victory, after a 123-119 victory in Game 5
- Read below for opening odds analysis and a prediction on which way the line will move leading up to tip-off
The Larry O’Brien Trophy will be in the building on Tuesday in Milwaukee, as the Bucks look to snap a 50-year championship drought. Milwaukee claimed a crucial 123-119 victory on the road in Game 5 of the NBA Finals over the Phoenix Suns, and now own a 3-2 series lead.
Game 6 is set for 9 pm ET at Fiserv Forum, a building in which Milwaukee sports a 9-1 record at during this year’s playoffs.
Suns vs Bucks Opening Odds – Game 6
|Team||Spread||Moneyline at DraftKings||Total|
|Phoenix Suns||+4.5 (-105)||+165||O 222.5 (-110)|
|Milwaukee Bucks||-4.5 (-115)||-195||U 222.5 (-110)|
Odds as of July 17th.
The Bucks opened up as a 4.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 222.5. The winner of Game 5 of the NBA Finals when the series has been tied 2-2 has gone on to win the title 72.4% of the time (21-8).
DraftKings Sportsbook Promo for NBA Finals – Get Insane 150-1 Odds on Either the Suns or Bucks
Jrue To the Rescue
Giannis Antetokounmpo had been a one-man show for Milwaukee through three games of the NBA Finals, but he’s received plenty of help from his supporting cast over the past two contests. Khris Middleton poured in 40 in the Bucks’ Game 4 win, while Jrue Holiday literally saved the day on Saturday.
Another look at that Jrue steal to Giannis slam.
WOWWW 😱 pic.twitter.com/LXFHA1ylj4
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) July 18, 2021
With Milwaukee clinging to a 1-point lead in the dying seconds of Game 5, Holiday stole the ball from Devin Booker and delivered a dime to Giannis to put the Bucks up 3. The potential series defining play helped cover up an awful night at the line for Antetokounmpo (4-of-11), and was one of many brilliant efforts from Holiday.
The Bucks overpaid to make sure they could get Jrue Holiday, the best defensive PG in the league, to make sure Giannis would be there long term.
On the biggest play the franchise has had in 50 years, Jrue ripped Booker & trusted Giannis.
What an iconic moment.
— nick wright (@getnickwright) July 18, 2021
The 31-year-old finished with 27 points, 13 assists, and 3 steals. Middleton splashed 29, and Giannis added 32. The three became just the fifth trio in NBA Finals history to each shoot 50% or better and score 25 points, and the first since 1985.
Booker meanwhile, became the first Suns player with 40 points in consecutive playoff games. Chris Paul finished with 21 points and 11 assists, while Deandre Ayton added a double-double of his own.
DEVIN BOOKER! pic.twitter.com/9L3hij3zjh
— ESPN (@espn) July 18, 2021
Both teams shot above 55% from the field, and 50% from beyond the arc. Phoenix knocked down 68.4% of its long distance looks, which was one of the main reasons they were nearly able to erase a 14-point 4th quarter deficit.
Expect Minimal Line Movement
Despite Milwaukee’s excellent track record at home during the regular season and playoffs, we shouldn’t expect the Game 6 opening odds to shift more than half a point in either direction. The Bucks closed as 4.5-point home favorites in both Games 3 and 4 in Milwaukee, and while they covered in each outing, the 3.5 to 4.5-point range has been the number the home side has been favored by in all five Finals contests.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, one win away from his first NBA title: “We kept our composure, we kept fighting. This is the NBA Finals, so you got to give everything you got. And that’s what the team did tonight.” pic.twitter.com/zgXjYyWQw5
— Malika Andrews (@malika_andrews) July 18, 2021
The early juice is shaded towards the Bucks which makes sense. They’ve won three straight and casual bettors will want to get down on the home team with a chance to win the title. However, if the line gets pushed up to -5, money is bound to come back in on Phoenix.
Chris began his career at Hockey Night in Canada over 15 years ago. He has since worked at TSN for over 12 years as a writer, line-up producer, field producer, newsroom supervisor for Sportscentre, and presently as a promotions producer.