Has Kyle Lowry played his last game as a Raptor? (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)
- The NBA trade deadline is on Thursday, March 25th
- Kyle Lowry tops the list of players who could be traded before Thursday
- Which trade odds represent the best betting value? See the betting markets on all players available below
The NBA trade deadline is on Thursday. March 25th signals the final opportunity for teams to recoup assets for expiring players or to bolster their rosters ahead of the playoff push (aside from any major buyouts, of course). Kyle Lowry is the biggest name circulating the NBA trade rumor cycle along with former All-Star Victor Oladipo.
Introducing the play-in tournament has impacted the trade deadline significantly. There are fewer sellers than ever before. Only a handful of teams are out of postseason contention at this stage, and a couple of those have either little to sell or are looking to keep players for next season.
Starting with Lowry, here’s a run through of NBA trade betting ahead of the deadline.
Odds on Kyle Lowry Next Team If Traded
|Los Angeles Clippers||+325|
All odds within as of March 23rd
Championship Contenders Hunting for Lowry
Fan bases of contenders across the league are dreaming up ways to get Kyle Lowry on their team. He’s been a frequent name in the trade machine all season, though it’s still unclear if the Raptors will deal their franchise icon. Lowry rumors have ramped up in recent days, however, and the Heat have been at the center of it once again.
It’s easier for Miami to put a package together than it is for the Clips or Sixers. Kelly OIynyk and Andre Iguodala gets the deal done financially, then it’s a question of which young players and/or picks Toronto would want. Tyler Herro is unlikely to be included, but perhaps the Raps could land Precious Achiuwa or Kendrick Nunn.
Kyle Lowry liking Allen Iverson’s latest Instagram picture 🤔 pic.twitter.com/pwQv6UG9gh
— Kevin McCormick (@KevinMcC973) March 22, 2021
While Olynyk and Iguodala are in the rotation, trading their salaries for Lowry is a no-brainer. The Clippers need Lowry most of all, but putting a deal together would be incredibly complicated. Sending Ivica Zubac, Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams is unlikely to interest Toronto, and it would leave Ty Lue without a backup center.
Returning Lowry to Philadelphia makes sense on court. He would be the ideal player to pair with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, but the Sixers would have to gut the roster. Danny Green plus salary filler would be required, probably along with Tyrese Maxey and a pick.
- Best bet: Miami Heat (-175)
Odds on John Collins Next Team If Traded
Collins and Hawks in a Stalemate
Where Lowry’s salary could be a barrier to trades, Collins’ situation is different, though clearly money related. The Hawks were unable to agree an extension in the offseason, and Collins is destined for a max deal as a restricted free agent this offseason. There’s no issue matching his salary for a deal before Thursday, but any team swinging a Collins trade will need to be comfortable maxing him this summer.
With a salary of around $4 million, any of the teams can construct a Collins trade easily. Dallas are an interesting landing spot, though. Collins and Kristaps Porzingis is a good frontcourt fit, but this trade would effectively be committing to Collins and Porzingis as Luka Doncic’s co-stars long-term.
Minnesota have been rumored as a Collins landing spot too. Again, this would be locking into D’Angelo Russell, Karl-Anthony Towns and Collins. If they’re that keen on him, the T-Wolves might as well wait until the offseason.
John Collins today 😤😤
Monster on the glass. pic.twitter.com/cAGnk4JOko
— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) March 20, 2021
Boston swinging a Collins trade makes perfect sense short-term, and as a shooter and roll threat, he’d be an ideal five alongside their talented wings, but a trade and max contract would mean an enormous tax bill for the Celtics. It’s hard to see that happening.
This is where we can talk ourselves into the Kings. Sacramento could well part ways with Marvin Bagley. Maybe a trade built around Collins for Bagley appeals to Sacramento. This feels like a trade the Kings could convince themselves is a good idea, particularly as they recklessly pursue the playoffs.
- Best Bet: Sacramento Kings (+400)
Odds on Andre Drummond Next Team If Traded
|New York Knicks||+200|
Will Drummond See a Meaningful Move?
Andre Drummond’s salary is almost $29 million this season. He’s a free agent this summer, which helps any team considering a trade, but matching the salary is tricky. It’s easy to see why the Dallas Mavericks are favorites.
Although they’ve got plenty of frontcourt depth, they could view Drummond as a complementary piece for Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic. Dallas has James Johnson’s expiring $15 million to trade, and they could add Willie Cauley-Stein and Boban Marjanovic to make the deal work.
Short of title contention and limited on tradeable picks, a Drummond trade could be a good compromise for the Mavs. A second or two should be enough to secure the two-time All-Star.
Report: The Cavs and Mavs have had trade talks around Andre Drummond, via @KevinOConnorNBA. pic.twitter.com/RDvwHijZba
— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) March 21, 2021
New York has plenty of cap space. The salaries of Frank Ntilikina and Nerlens Noel plus some filler would be enough to acquire Drummond. Maybe Mitchell Robinson’s injury motivates them to make this move, but Noel has been playing solidly, and this seems like an unnecessary trade.
Although linked with Drummond in the past, the Raptors don’t look like a good bet to trade for him at this stage. Matching salary would require giving up too many key pieces, and Toronto is more likely to be sellers than buyers.
- Best Bet: Dallas Mavericks (+150)
2021 NBA MVP Award Odds Tracker
Odds on Victor Oladipo’s Next Team If Traded
|New York Knicks||+200|
|Los Angeles Lakers||+350|
|Golden State Warriors||+750|
Oladipo’s Market Murky to Predict
Victor Oladipo has a $21 million salary. He’s a free agent this offseason. Reports have been plentiful of his desire to go to Miami, but with cap space this summer, the Heat may wait and add the former Pacer in free agency.
Oladipo’s performance levels have not exactly been convincing since returning from injury. He’s been up and down since getting traded to the Rockets too, but the combination of an expiring contract and flashes of his All-NBA best will likely tempt a contender into a deal.
Houston’s price remains high, however. According to Shams Charania, the Rockets want a quality first-round pick or a good young player for Oladipo. A couple of seconds seems like a more probable return for Houston.
There’s still mutual interest between the Miami Heat and Victor Oladipo, per @davidaldridgedc
“The shaky play of Bubble Giants Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson so far this season makes a wing upgrade alongside Jimmy Butler worth exploring.” 😅
(Via https://t.co/Gl9iVRIru7) pic.twitter.com/qqB26LgQVC
— NBA Central (@TheNBACentral) March 23, 2021
Andre Iguodala and Maurice Harkless works for Oladipo’s salary. With so few picks to trade, though, the Heat aren’t going to be in a rush to make a deal like this with how Oladipo has been playing. It might make more sense for the Knicks to make a low-cost trade for Oladipo if they are interested in signing him in free agency.
Golden State is the outsider here, but they’re a team to watch. The Warriors are likely to make a move before the deadline, and they could build an Oladipo trade around Kelly Oubre’s expiring. Extending the Rockets guard is tricky with their committed money, but their struggles offensively might tempt them into a big move.
- Best Bet: Golden State Warriors (+750)
Odds on Norman Powell Next Team If Traded
|New York Knicks||+150|
|Los Angeles Clippers||+300|
|Golden State Warriors||+450|
Powell’s Value Has Never Been Higher
Norm Powell is playing the best basketball of his life. He’s also on a tradeable contract at under $11 million. For any potential suitors, though, his upcoming free agency could be a concern. Scoring almost 20 per contest, shooting over 43% from three and almost 50% from the field, Powell is going to get paid this offseason.
The Knicks have the space to pay Powell. They can absorb him into cap space, and have picks to trade. If New York is desperate to make the playoffs this year, adding some extra scoring punch is a must, and there are few better non-All-Star scorers in the league than Powell at the moment.
Leading Scorers By Zone. pic.twitter.com/AyZGwEYSXO
— Kirk Goldsberry (@kirkgoldsberry) March 16, 2021
Dallas could either use James Johnson’s contract or move on from Josh Richardson, who has been a disappointment since arriving from Philadelphia. Powell doesn’t really answer any of the Clippers’ main concerns, but just like Oladipo, he would be an awesome fit on the Warriors. Oubre and a pick and/or young player for Powell would give Golden State another go-to scorer alongside Steph Curry.
If made available, Powell is going to be highly desired around the league. Caution over his next contract could limit the interest of some front offices, however.
- Best Bet: New York Knicks (+150)
Odds on Nikola Vucevic Next Team If Traded
|San Antonio Spurs||+175|
Would Orlando Trade Their Cornerstone?
Aaron Gordon has submitted a trade request. Evan Fournier is on an expiring. The Magic are likely to be active ahead of the trade deadline, but a Nikola Vucevic deal is going to be tricky. According to The Athletic, Orlando wants a package comparable to what the Pelicans received for Jrue Holiday. Only a handful of teams can pull off such a deal.
Owning their future picks, Boston is one such team. The C’s have the assets to make a Vucevic trade, but the same can be said of the Hornets and Spurs. Charlotte were poised to be aggressive at the deadline, though their plans may have been altered by LaMelo Ball’s season-ending injury.
The Magic are only interested in dealing Nikola Vucevic for multiple first-round picks and pick swaps, via The Athletic.
— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) March 22, 2021
San Antonio traditionally does very little at the deadline. Swinging a Vucevic trade before Thursday would be a massive shock. Maybe they get more aggressive as Gregg Popovich chases another playoff run, but this sort of all-in deal is incredibly risky for a small-market franchise.
The Celtics are the most reasonable of the trio, though even that is a longshot. A Vucevic trade may well include multiple teams, and perhaps the Celtics could send fewer picks by adding Marcus Smart and Payton Pritchard.
- Best Bet: Boston Celtics (+120)