New England vs Toronto, Montreal vs NYCFC & More

MLS Week 12

Toronto FC forward Ayo Akinola (20) reacts during a play during the second half of an MLS soccer match against FC Cincinnati, Saturday, June 26, 2021, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

  • MLS Week 12 features eight matches on Wednesday, two on Thursday and one on Friday
  • Sporting Kansas City and Seattle lead the Supporters’ Shield race
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from MLS Week 12

It’s a busy week in MLS with 11 midweek games for MLS Week 12 beginning on Wednesday. At the top of the table SKC and Seattle are now tied on 26 points in the West, with New England sitting right behind in the Supporters’ Shield race with 24 points in the East. For Seattle, they can set  league record for starting a season undefeated in 13 games on Wednesday against Houston.

Unsurprisingly those teams have all been some of the hottest in the league heading into the round. But on the other end of the table teams like San Jose (8 points) and Vancouver (6) in the West and Miami (8), Chicago (7) and Toronto (5) are all struggling to pick up points in the past ten form guide.

For Toronto, their struggles resulted in the dismissal of Chris Armas as head coach after last weekend’s loss.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the MLS Week 12 schedule below.

MLS Week 12 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
New England vs Toronto -200 +375 +425
Montreal vs NYCFC +290 +265 -115
Chicago vs Orlando +145 +280 +155
Seattle vs Houston -177 +340 +410
Colorado vs Minnesota +100 +280 +235
Austin vs LAFC +215 +235 +125
Vancouver vs RSL +235 +250 +108
LA Galaxy vs Dallas -118 +300 +255
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia +118 +235 +225
Nashville vs Atlanta -157 +310 +380
Cincinnati vs Columbus +150 +230 +175

Odds as of July 6 at DraftKings

New England Revolution vs Toronto FC Prediction

After Saturday’s 7-1 massacre defeat to DC United, Toronto could not be facing a worse opponent on a short turnaround. TFC are last in the East and the league overall, while New England are first in the East and just two points away from SKC and Seattle in the West.

They’ll kick off MLS Week 12 at 7:00 pm EST on Wednesday. After TFC’s defeat, head coach Chris Armas was shown the door and assistant Javier Perez will take over on an interim basis.

Toronto still has a a strong lineup and this could be the rock-bottom moment which spurs a turnaround. In any sport, after such a lopsided defeat, there is generally some sort of rebound from the losing team in their next match. This is still a team that was second in the Supporters’ Shield standings last season. Much of that roster remains and includes proud players, like captain Michael Bradley and others who know they have not played up to expectations this season.

The Revs have cooled off just a bit after five-straight wins, now coming off a 2-1 loss to FC Dallas and 2-2 draw with Columbus on Saturday. Both of those recent matches came on the road, while Wednesday against TFC will be back at home where the Revs are a perfect 5-0-0 with ten goals scored and only four allowed.

It’s unlikely TFC suffers another heavy-handed defeat in back-to-back games. But against an opponent in the form of New England right now, you still have to side with the Revs. A New England win at -200 won’t offer much value but the Revs at -1 (-118) will net you a better return.

Pick: New England -1 (-118)

Montreal Impact vs New York City FC Prediction

Now undefeated in four matches, CF Montreal are tied for the final playoff spot in the East after Saturday’s 1-0 win over Inter Miami.

Their games have been tight. In those past four, a total of four goals have been scored combined. Those results have been two 1-0 wins, as well as 1-1 and 0-0 draws. Overall Montreal matches have seen the most UNDERs in the league at 8-3 to 2.5 totals—only Austin at 9-3 have played to more UNDERs.

Recent form aside, let’s look at where the points have come from for Montreal so far. They have four wins and four draws. Their wins have included two over Inter Miami, one over Toronto and one over Chicago. Those teams are 12th, 13th and 14th in the East and a combined 5-6-22 (WDL).

NYCFC will travel to Florida to meet Montreal at 7:30 pm EST in MLS Week 12.

They’re coming off back-to-back wins, 2-1 over DC and 1-0 over Atlanta. NYCFC will be the more rested side having not played on the weekend. Their win over DC came on June 27.

The Citizens are right around where they should be from an expected goals (xg) standpoint. They’ve scored 18 and have an xG of 18.6. At just 9.5, they have the best expected goals against (xGA) in the East and the league, though they’ve conceded 11 times.

Montreal is currently far exceeding their xGA. They’ve allowed just ten goals, however, their xGA is 16.0. Offensively Montreal is not creating the most chances. Only two teams have put fewer shots on target (38)—their Canadian counterparts in Vancouver and Toronto.

NYCFC have allowed right around that number. Just 37 shots on target, among the league’s best.

I see Montreal struggling to create much in this one and will side with a New York win and or the UNDER.

Pick: NYCFC to win (-139), Under 2.5 (+128)

2021 MLS Cup Odds Tracker

Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United Prediction

Two Western Conference foes will meet Wednesday at 9:00 pm EST with fourth place Colorado hosting sixth place Minnesota.

The Rapids held the co-Supporters’ Shield leading Seattle Sounders to a 1-1 draw on the weekend, giving them points now in three of four. Colorado has only lost two of their past eight and have now scored in each of their ten matches this year.

In seven of those matches they’ve also conceded. The three where they didn’t, came against Vancouver, Cincinnati and Dallas, none of the league’s more prolific attacks.

Both teams have scored in three of Minnesota’s last three matches. One of those came on the weekend in a 2-2 draw with San Jose. They won 2-0 over Austin the match prior and had two 1-1 draws leading up to that. It’s now six undefeated on the bounce for Adrian Heath’s side, after going winless in their opening four. The Loons have scored in seven-straight and in eight of ten on the season. They’ve also conceded in seven of ten.

Minnesota should be the team who creates more chances here. They hold a higher average possession (50.4% – 47.6%) and they have the third-highest attacking third touches in all of MLS. Colorado ranks just 21st in that category.

However, neither team ranks high in actual shots on target, Colorado has 42 and Minnesota 41.

These teams have already met once back on May 8 and it was the highest scoring game for either team this season, a 3-2 home win for the Rapids. Minnesota took a 2-0 lead into the half, but three Rapids’ second half goals completed the unlikely comeback.

While we may not see another five-goal thriller, backing both teams to score at least once looks to be a good bet.

Pick: Both to Score (-148)

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Ryan Metivier

Sports Editor