NFL Playoffs Wild Card Weekend Odds to Lead in Passing, Rushing, and Receiving

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) rushes for a gain against the Houston Texans during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Jan. 3, 2021, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

  • Oddsmakers are expecting dominance from the Buffalo Bills during NFL Wild Card weekend
  • Bills QB Josh Allen (+200) is favored to lead the weekend in passing yardage, while WR Stefon Diggs is the +400 favorite to post the most receiving yards
  • Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry is the +100 chalk to lead Wild Card weekend in rushing yardage

The wildest Wild Card weekend in NFL history is upon us. A record six games are on tap as the NFL kicks off the 2020-21 postseason.

Those are the biggest numbers ever in terms of playoff participation. On Saturday in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks are playing host to the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Washington to face the Football Team. The Indianapolis Colts are at the Buffalo Bills in the lone AFC contest on Saturday.

Sunday’s AFC action sees the Baltimore Ravens traveling to Tennesse to face the Titans, while the Cleveland Browns are at the Pittsburgh Steelers. The New Orleans Saints play host to the Chicago Bears in the lone NFC game.

Prop bets are out asking which quarterback will lead the Wild Card weekend in passing yardage. There is similar action offered on running backs (rushing yardage) and wide receivers (reception yardage).

Most Passing Yards

Most Receiving Yards

Most Rushing Yards

Most NFL Wild Card Weekend Passing Yards

Player (Team) Odds
Josh Allen (Bills) +200
Tom Brady (Buccaneers) +300
Drew Brees (Saints) +600
Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) +700
Russell Wilson (Seahawks) +725
Philip Rivers (Colts) +800
Ryan Tannehill (Titans) +1000
Baker Mayfield (Browns) +1400
Lamar Jackson (Ravens) +1600
Mitch Trubisky (Bears) +1600
Los Angeles Rams QBs +1800
Alex Smith (Washington) +2000

Odds taken from PointsBet on Jan 7

When it comes to pass, in terms of raw numbers, Brady is the guy at the top of the list. The Tampa Bay quarterback threw for 4,633 yards, the most of any QB involved with the Wild Card round.

However, Brady is coming up against Washington’s pass defense, ranked #2 in the NFL. Likewise, Russell Wilson of the Seahawks is tangling with the #1 pass defense of the Los Angeles Rams.

Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield (#3 Pittsburgh), Chicago’s Mitch Trubisky (#5 New Orleans) and Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill (#6 Baltimore) also figure to find the air taken out of the ball by the defenses they must face.

On the flip side, the Rams get a chance to pick apart Seattle’s #31-ranked pass defense. The problem being, Rams coach Sean McVay won’t reveal whether Jared Goff (broken thumb) or backup John Wolford will be under center for his team.

Lay the Favorite

There’s a couple of reasons why going with the favorite makes sense here. Buffalo’s Josh Allen is at +200. He’s facing an Indianapolis defense that rated 20th overall at stopping the pass.

Allen passed for 4,544 yards this season, good for fifth among NFL QBs. He threw for over 300 yards in three of his last five games.

If it’s value you seek, maybe take a chance on Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger (+700). Big Ben gets Cleveland’s #22 pass defense and a Browns team in disarray due to a COVID-19 outbreak. But he was only good for 162 yards through the air during a 38-7 win over Cleveland earlier this season.

Pick: Josh Allen (Bills) +200

Super Bowl 55 Odds Tracker

Most NFL Wild Card Weekend Receiving Yards

Player (Team) Odds
Stefon Diggs (Bills) +400
AJ Brown (Titans) +650
DK Metcalf (Seahawks) +650
Allen Robinson (Bears) +1100
Terry McLaurin (Washington) +1500
Mike Evans (Buccaneers) +1500
Chris Godwin (Buccaneers) +1600
JuJu Smith-Schuster (Steelers) +1600
Diontae Johnson (Steelers) +1600
Tyler Lockett (Seahawks) +1600
Antonio Brown (Buccanneers) +1600
Cooper Kupp (Rams) +1800
Robert Woods (Rams) +1800
TY Hilton (Colts) +1800
Emmanuel Sanders (Saints) +1800
Alvin Kamara (Saints) +2000
Chase Claypool (Steelers) +2000
Corey Davis (Titans) +2000
Jarvis Landry (Browns) +2200
Mark Andrews (Ravens) +2500
Marquise Brown (Ravens) +2500
John Brown (Bills) +2500
Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers) +3500

It’s going to be difficult to pass up a chance to lock in Stefon Diggs at +400. The Bills wideout led the NFL with 1,535 yards in receptions this season.

That works out to an average of 95.9 yards per game. No other receiver involved in Wild Card weekend is averaging better than 81.4 ypg. Diggs is averaging 14 yards per catch during his career in postseason play.

If someone can get him the ball, Washington’s Terry McLaurin might be worthy as a value play. He’s going up against Tampa Bay’s #29 pass defense.

Unfortunately, Washington QB Alex Smith is listed as questionable due to a calf injury

Pick: Stefon Diggs (Bills) +400

Most NFL Wild Card Weekend Rushing Yards

Player (Team) Odds
Derrick Henry (Titans) +100
Nick Chubb (Browns) +400
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) +450
David Montgomery (Bears) +1100
Alvin Kamara (Saints) +1600
Chris Carson (Seahawks) +1800
Lamar Jackson (Ravens) +1800
JK Dobbins (Ravens) +1800
Antonio Gibson (Washington) +2000
Cam Akers (Rams) +2000
Ronald Jones II (Buccanneers) +2200
James Conner (Steelers) +2500
Gus Edwards (Ravens) +2800
Kareem Hunt (Browns) +2800
Zack Moss (Bills) +3000
Devin Singletary (Bills) +4000
Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers) +4000

Earlier this season, Tennessee’s Derrick Henry went for 133 yards in a 30-24 overtime victory over the Ravens. In last season’s NFL Divisional Round playoffs, he sliced and diced Baltimore for 195 yards during a 28-12 triumph.

Yes, Baltimore was #8 in the NFL at stopping the run this season. No matter. Tennessee has the power offense to match the Ravens’ strength.

Henry (+100) rambled for a league-leading 2,027 yards this season, so no team was really successful at containing him. He’s rushed for over 200 yards twice in the past four games and topped 100 yards in six of his last eight games.

If you must play a sleeper, consider Jonathan Taylor (+450) of the Colts. He stormed through Jacksonville for 253 yards last week. It was his second time to 150 yards rushing in the past month.

Buffalo rates #18 in the NFL at stopping the run.

Pick: Derrick Henry (Titans) +100

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Robert Duff