Nitto ATP Finals November 17


Rafael Nadal hitting a backhand. Can he win on Tuesday at the Nitto ATP Finals?

Rafael Nadal is looking to do something he’s never done before, win the ATP Finals. Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire.

  • The group stage of the Nitto ATP Finals continues on November 17th with two more matches
  • Nadal and Thiem are both coming off big wins as they look to face each other this round
  • See below for current odds, preview, and best bet of each match

In a continuation of one of the most exciting tournaments of the year, where the top eight players face off against each other, two more matches will be played in the Nitto ATP Finals on Tuesday.

Nadal’s coming off a dominant performance and looks to continue to show up at a tournament that isn’t typically his strong suit. His +550 odds to win it all coming into the tournament were higher than most expected them to be, but he’s never won the ATP Tour Finals and has something to prove.

Nadal vs Thiem Nitto ATP Finals Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[2] Rafael Nadal -2.5 (-112) -177 O 23.5 (+100)
[3] Dominic Thiem +2.5 (-110) +145 U 23.5 (-122)

Odds taken Nov. 16 from DraftKings

Nadal Looks to Win

Nadal is looking for his first ATP Finals title, and after a comfortable win against Andrey Rublev, he will take on World No. 3 Dominic Thiem. Rafa dominated Rublev in a 6-3, 6-4 win where he didn’t give up a single breakpoint and won 82-percent of his first service points in just 77 minutes.

Nadal refuses to call it a perfect match, but it was fairly close to one. He broke Rublev three times and followed up with a consistent 120 mph first serve. Rublev did commit more than his usual amount of unforced errors, that Nadal was able to take advantage of. Combining that with his dominant serve on the indoor hard surface, it made it difficult for Rublev to gain momentum.

Thiem’s Rematch

In a rematch of last year’s Nitto ATP Finals, US Open champ Dominic Thiem is coming off a three-set win over Stefanos Tsitsipas winning 7(7)-6(5), 4-6, 6-3.

In the second set, Tsitsipas was leading when he had the opportunity to break back, but his backhand found the net. Thiem held serve in that second set after a game went six deuces, and Tsitsipas was never able to come back.

Head-to-Head & Best Bet

These two players have seen each other a number of times, with Nadal leading with nine wins. Two of their matches have been played on outdoor hard courts, where both of them have taken a win. But they’ve actually never played each other on an indoor hard court, which is worth noting.

Nadal vs Thiem Stats

2 ATP Standing 3
9 Head-to-Head Wins 5
25/5 2020 W/L 22/7
2 2020 Titles 1

The last time these two played each other was earlier this year in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open where Thiem was the winner of a hard-fought match, winning 7-6(3), 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6). Something that might be a little different for Thiem this time, is the aggression that Nadal is playing with. For the first time ever, Nadal has come into this tournament fresh.

To break Nadal’s confidence right now, which is pretty hard to do, Thiem is going to have to mix up his shots and his serves. Keeping Nadal on his toes will be the biggest thing to watch out for. Nadal has shown that he’s adapted to the conditions, and has been very strong not just with his serve, but on the return as well.

This is going to be the match of the day and has every ingredient for an epic battle. But I’m going to go in favor of Nadal for this one, he’s just playing a bit more aggressive and dominant than Thiem, and if he gets in a rhythm, it might be game over.

Best Bet: Nadal in three sets

UEFA Euro 2021 Odds Tracker

Tsitsipas vs Rublev Nitto ATP Finals Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[5] Stefanos Tsitsipas -1.5 (+110) -118 O 23.5 (-108)
[6] Andrey Rublev +1.5 (-136) -103 U 23.5 (-114)

Defending Champion

Defending Nitto ATP Finals champ Stefanos Tsitsipas will look to bounce back after an opening round loss, and take on Andrey Rublev. He’s had a decent season, but not the one people expected him to have after his win here last year.

Despite the loss to Thiem, if he makes a few adjustments and limits the amount of unforced errors, he can still defend his title.

The Newcomer to Nitto ATP Finals

22-year-old Rublev has earned his way here. After winning five titles this year, Rublev just had a tough go against Nadal. He couldn’t find a way to record a single breakpoint, and ultimately fell to Nadal.

Tsitsipas will be more up Rublev’s speed, and it won’t be an easy task for either player. If Rublev can control any nerves he may have, and shake his last match, it’ll be interesting.

Head-to-Head & Best Bet

These two have met four times before. Tsitsipas took their first meeting back in 2018, and they’ve seen each other twice this year on clay. Seeing that both players lost their first match, this is basically a must-win for both. Both players actually play fairly similar tennis, have a strong serve, a good forehand and do a really good job at covering the entire court.

Tsitsipas vs Rublev Stats

6 ATP Standing 8
2 Head-to-Head Wins 2
28/12 2020 W/L 40/8
1 2020 Titles 5

I think this match might just come down to experience. Tsitsipas was here last year and won. Rublev is considered a newcomer. It will definitely be a close match, and will most likely go the distance, but I’m going to give Tsitsipas the edge.

Best Bet: Tsitsipas in three sets

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Hayley Graham

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