Nitto ATP Finals Odds, Picks & Predictions – Djokovic Looking for Sixth Title


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Novak Djokovic tops the final eight at the ATP Tour Finals in London next week. Photo by: Wonderhatch/ATP Tour

  • The Nitto ATP Finals begin Sunday, in London one final time before moving to Turin, Italy for 2021
  • First-timers Diego Schwartzman and Andrey Rublev join former champions Djokovic, Zverev and Tsitsipas
  • Djokovic’s group features the most in-form players indoors. Can he get through pool play?

Novak Djokovic hasn’t won the ATP Tour Finals in five years. But prior to 2016, he won it four straight times.

This year, he comes in having guaranteed a year-end No. 1 ranking for the record-tying sixth time.

He’s a massive favorite to win it, also for the record-tying sixth time.

Nitto ATP Tour Finals Odds

Player Odds
[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) +140
[4] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) +450
[2] Rafael Nadal (ESP) +550
[3] Dominic Thiem (AUT) +700
[6] Alexander Zverev (GER) +800
[7] Andrey Rublev (RUS) +900
[5] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) +1200
[8] Diego Schwartzman (ARG) +4000

All odds as of Nov. 13 at DraftKings

Nadal Leads London 2020 Group

Rafael Nadal has never won the ATP Tour Finals.

And he has only made the final twice, most recently in 2013.

There are a lot of reasons. The Majorcan has won very few titles post-US Open titles overall, and only two indoor titles in his career.

Nadal is going to have work hard to get out of his round-robin pool in London. Photo montage by ATP Tour

Generally, he’s spent physically by November. But with the shortened season in 2020, he’s much fresher coming in.

Bad news: Nadal drew Dominic Thiem in his pool instead of Daniil Medvedev on the 3-4 coin flip. Thiem is by far his toughest opponent in the field (after Djokovic).

It’s surprising his odds (+550) are as high as they are.

Rublev a Tough No. 4

Assuming he doesn’t get the first-time jitters, Rublev is a formidable No. 4 in that group. On a given day, he can literally be unplayable on a hard court.

He is a completely different player now than the kid who took a whooping from Nadal at the 2017 US Open, in their only meeting (6-1, 6-2, 6-2).

And his head-to-head against the other two are even; the Russian rookie could be the shocker out of this group.

Given how the draw shook out, defending champion Tsitsipas looks to be a non-factor.

Group London 2020 Head-to-Heads

Player Nadal Thiem Tsitsipas Rublev
[2] Rafael Nadal X 9-5 5-1 1-0
[3] Dominic Thiem 5-9 X 4-3 2-2
[5] Stefanos Tsitsipas 1-5 3-4 X 2-2
[7] Andrey Rublev 0-1 2-2 2-2 X

Djokovic Leads Group Tokyo 1970

Schwartzman will have a shot to catch Djokovic a little cold because they’ll meet in the opening match. It’s probably his best shot. But it’s not a great shot.

Djokovic’s head-to-heads with Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev are much closer, and both are in better recent form than he is.

But he probably only has to beat one of them.

Team Tokyo 1970 seems more balanced on the head-to-head side. Photo montage by ATP Tour

Zverev has two titles and a final on the indoor circuit this fall.

Medvedev played vintage tennis last week in winning the Paris Masters title.

2021 Australian Open Odds Tracker

It’s Going to Take Two Wins to Advance

It’s hard to see someone advancing out of this pool with a 1-2 record and a favorable tiebreaker. And it’s entirely possible to see Schwartzman coming out 0-3.

Zverev showed in Paris that he was able to shut out his off-court drama and thrive.

He is capable of beating Djokovic. And he holds a 5-2 head-to-head against Medvedev despite the loss in Paris. Zverev was dealing with a nagging leg injury he says is better now.

All of which to say – getting out of the pool is going to be no picnic. But that’s as it should be.

Group Tokyo 1970 Head-to-Heads

Player Djokovic Medvedev Zverev Schwartzman
[1] Novak Djokovic X 4-2 3-2 5-0
[4] Daniil Medvedev 2-4 X 2-5 4-0
[6] Alexander Zverev 2-3 5-2 X 2-2
[8] Diego Schwartzman 0-5 0-4 2-2 X

Just like in Paris, Medvedev is the second favorite – even with a poor priors.

Medvedev had just one career win in Paris going in – and he won it.

A year ago in London, Medvedev lost all three of his round-robin matches. And yet he’s right behind Djokovic at +450.

Nitto ATP Tour Finals – Previous Champions

Year Champion 2020 Finish
2019 Stefanos Tsitsipas Qualified – No. 5 seed
2018 Alexander Zverev Qualified – No. 6 seed
2017 Grigor Dimitrov Did not qualify
2016 Andy Murray Did not qualify
2015 Novak Djokovic Qualified – No. 1 seed
2014 Novak Djokovic Qualified – No. 1 seed
2013 Novak Djokovic Qualified – No. 1 seed
2012 Novak Djokovic Qualified – No. 1 seed

Expect Djokovic to make it out of pool play. The second player? Medvedev, in part because he has a better head-to-head record against Schwartzman than Zverev does.

Nadal? That’s a tougher ask. We give all four players in the London 2020 pool pretty even shots at making it to the weekend.

Pick to win: Djokovic (+140)

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Stephanie Myles

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