Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Berrettini Odds & Prediction


Serbia’s Novak Djokovic celebrates after defeating Canada’s Denis Shapovalov during the men’s singles semifinals match on day eleven of the Wimbledon Tennis Championships in London, Friday, July 9, 2021. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)

  • The Wimbledon Men’s Singles Final will take place Sunday, July 11th
  • This will be the third meeting between Novak Djokovic and Matteo Berrettini
  • Continue below for odds and our best bet analysis for this final match

The finals have been set in London, and Novak Djokovic and Matteo Berrettini will go head-to-head on Sunday. The two have played each other a couple of times, including earlier this year in the quarterfinals of the French Open.

You have to think that there’s one major thing on Djokovic’s mind, and that’s tying the Grand Slam record. Well, he enters the match at the favorite once again, making it feel very possible. Not to mention if he were to capture the title, he’ll have won all three Grand Slams so far in 2021. Berrettini himself will look to spoil that as he’s on an 11-match win streak on grass. If there was going to be someone this tournament to end Djokovic’s run, it would be him

Take a look at the odds below, as well a breakdown of how each player made it to the finals at The Championships.

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Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon Men’s Singles Final Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[1] Novak Djokovic -5.5 (+102) -480 Ov 38.5 (-107)
[7] Matteo Berrettini +5.5 (-122) +380 Un 38.5 (-114)

Odds as of July 9th from DraftKings

Defending Champion

Five-time Wimbledon champion, Djokovic will look to continue his success 2021 season as he takes on Berrettini in the final. The Serb has won 20 consecutive matches here, and has shown little indication of really being challenged. He hasn’t lost a set since losing the first set of his first round match last week.

His semifinal match against 22-year old Denis Shapovalov was a battle that looked like it could’ve been either players match at certain points, but Djokovic managed to close that out in straight sets, winning 7-6(3), 7-5, 7-5. The 34-year old saved 10 of 11 break points he faced, and recorded an 81 win percentage when landing his first serve.

He now has an opportunity to be written in the history books once again, with his tying 20th Grand Slam title on the table. The only person standing in his way is 25-year old Berrettini.

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Berrettini Unbeatable On Grass?

The 25-year old is has been on a tear the past two tournaments, improving to 11-0 on grass in 2021. And the way he’s been playing has earned him a spot in a Grand Slam final for the first time in his career.

The Italian took on 14th seed Hubert Hurkacz in the semifinals earlier today in four sets, winning 6-3, 6-0, 6-7(3), 6-4 in just over two and a half hours. Berrettini went on to not lose a single serve over the course of the four sets, and managed to save both break points he faced.

Once again his serve was on display as he dealt out 22 aces with only one double fault, while recording 60 winners.

The World No. 9 will now have a day to rest before taking on the best in the world on one of the biggest stages.

Head-to-Head

We’ve seen these two play against each other twice before, but never on grass. Their last match was just earlier this year in the quarterfinals of The French Open, where Djokovic went on to win 6-3, 6-2, 6-7(5), 7-5, and eventually the tournament itself. The Serb currently holds the edge with a 2-0 head-to-head record.

Djokovic vs Berrettini Head-to-Head Stats

1 ATP Standing 9
34 Age 25
84 Career Titles 5
961/195 Career W/L 97/57
3 YTD Titles 2
27/3 YTD W/L 26/6
2 Head-to-Head Wins 0

Best Bet

As we see in the odds, Djokovic is the favorite, hands down. And there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be. We did see him get tested in his semifinal match against Shapovalov, which ultimately I think came down to a difference in experience that allowed Djokovic to come away with it. The opportunity to beat the best in the world is there. But we have also seen Djokovic bring a lot of variety into his game, which can be scary for an opponent, when he can seemingly beat you in all parts of the court.

Berrettini is so strong, and he relies on his serve quite a bit. His strong offensive way of playing has done him well on grass, which includes both his serve, and his forehand.

What Djokovic has against all of these younger opponents, which sometimes gives him the slight edge that’s necessary, is experience. He’s been here before, he’s knows the feeling, he knows what to expect. At the end of the day, that’s no fault of Berrettini, but he’s going to be battling the unknown, which can sometimes affect a player.

It’ll be a huge surprise if this is a straight set win for Djokovic, but I still expect him to come away with his 20th Grand Slam at the end of the weekend.

Best Bet: Djokovic 3-1 (+260)

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Hayley Graham

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