Odds and Best Bets for Giro d’Italia Stage 14


Filippo Ganna head on during a time trial

Filippo Ganna won the Giro d’Italia’s first time trial this year and has a good chance at the second on Saturday. Photo by @PezCycling (Twitter).

  • Stage 14 of the Giro (Saturday, October 17th) is the second of three individual time trials this year
  • Filippo Ganna is favored to lay down the fastest time
  • Who are the best bets to win Stage 14’s ITT? 

João Almeida continues to lead the 2020 Giro d’Italia heading into Stage 14’s individual time trial (Oct. 17th) – the second of three in this year’s Giro.

Saturday’s ITT is on a hilly course with one short, steep climb early on. Filippo Ganna, who won the first ITT in Stage 1, is the betting favorite, but the secondary contenders include some excellent TT riders.

The table below shows the odds to win Stage 14 for the top-12 favorites.

Giro d’Italia Stage 14 Odds

Rider Odds
Filippo Ganna +125
Rohan Dennis +550
Victor Campenaerts +900
Mikkel Bjerg +1300
Brandon McNulty +2100
João Almeida +2100
Jonathan Castroviejo +2300
Alex Dowsett +3400
Thomas De Gendt +3400
Chad Haga +4100
Pello Bilbao +4100
Wilco Kelderman +4100

Odds as of Oct. 16th.

Almeida extended his overall lead on Friday by finishing second and earning a time bonus on a route that seemed like it would benefit sprinters and punchers.

Almeida leads Wilco Kelderman by 40 seconds and Pello Bilbao by 49. Five other riders are with a minute-and-a-half of the lead: Domenico Pozzovivo (1:03), Vincenzo Nibali (1:07), Patrick Konrad (1:17), Jai Hindley (1:25), and Rafal Majka (1:27).

Almeida finished behind Diego Ulissi on Friday, who claimed his eighth career Giro stage victory. Ulissi was able to create a small split on the final climb, eliminating several sprinters, and then nipped Almeida with a bike throw at the line.

Saturday’s time trial is a 34.1 kilometres test from Conegliano to Valdobbiadene. There is a 1.1 km section with a 12% gradient early on. The rest of the course is hilly. The finish line is slightly uphill.

Because this year’s Giro has three time trials, there are several cyclists in the lineup specifically for these days. Ganna is a reasonable favorite, but he has legitimate competition.

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Ganna Is the Deserving Favorite

Ganna started the race with a victory, and added Stage 5 to his portfolio too. The reigning World Time Trial Champion is very dangerous.

Ganna was second in the Vuelta a San Juan this year. He is a four-time world champ in the individual pursuit. On three occasions, he set the individual pursuit world record.

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Contenders

Rohan Dennis has won stages on each grand tour and captured the World Time Trial title in 2018 and 2019.

Dennis last earned a victory in the Giro when he took the Stage 16 time trial in 2018.

Two-time European Time Trial champ Victor Campenaerts crashed in the first ITT at this year’s Giro and his criticism of the course was scathing. He suggested the bumpy, off-road-style trek at high speeds in windy conditions was dangerous.

Campenaerts has never won a stage in a grand tour.

Alex Dowsett won Stage 8 this year, his second career Giro victory.

Dowsett is a former Hour-Record holder. He finished fourth this year in the European Road Championships.

Longshots

In one of the most dramatic ITTs of all time, this year’s Tour de France was won by Tadej Pogačar when he made up more than a minute deficit on Primož Roglič on a time trial on the penultimate stage.

That means the current GC leaders, and those who think they can make a move should be all out to gain time on Saturday and certainly included among the contenders.

Wilco Kelderman, João Almeida, and Pello Bilbao are all capable. Kelderman won the 2015 Dutch National Time Trial Championship. Almeida won the 2019 Portuguese U23 Road Championships Time Trial. Bilbao is the reigning Spanish National Time Trial champ.

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Dave F.

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