Odds Favor Taysom Hill Being Saints Starting Quarterback in 2021, Brees Retiring After 2020 Season


Taysom Hill running

Taysom Hill is listed as the -170 favorite to be the starting quarterback for the New Orleans Saints in 2021. Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire)

  • Taysom Hill is listed as the -170 favorite to be the starting quarterback for the New Orleans Saints in 2021
  • Hill started in place of the injured Drew Brees in Sunday’s 24-9 win over the Atlanta Falcons
  • Odds are -190 favoring Brees to retire at season’s end

Oddsmakers are anticipating that Taysom Hill being under center for the New Orleans Saints instead of Drew Brees will be a future trend.

Hill started Sunday for the New Orleans Saints in a 24-9 victory over the Atlanta Falcons. Brees, the regular starter for the Saints, is out with fractured ribs and a punctured lung.

It’s the second season in a row that Brees, 41, has suffered a significant injury, and the betting markets are leaning toward him deciding that’s enough.

Odds are favoring Brees opting for retirement following the 2020 NFL season at odds of -190. In a related prop, sports betting sites are listing Hill as the -170 chalk to be the starting QB for New Orleans in the 2021 NFL season opener.

Odds Taysom Hill is Saints QB to Start 2021 NFL Season

Props Yes Odds No Odds
Taysom Hill is Game 1 Starter in 2021 -170 +125

Odds from Nov. 24th

A Hill of a Debut

For most of Hill’s first four seasons with the Saints, New Orleans head coach Sean Payton has been deploying him as a jack of all trades. He’s played QB, wide receiver, tight end and running back.

Sunday, Payton surprisingly decided that it was time to find out if Hill could be master of one position. It was expected that NFL veteran Jameis Winston, a longtime starter for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, would get the nod to step in when Brees was injured.

Instead, Payton turned to Hill. Making his first career start at QB, Hill, 30, compiled 284 yards of total offense.

He competed 18-of-23 passes for 233 yards. Hill was only the seventh QB since 1950 to compete over 78% of his passes in his first NFL start. He was just the second to average over 10 yards per completion.

Hill’s passer rating was 108.9. He tossed nary a TD pass or interception. He also ran for 51 yards and two TDs. Hill joined Daunte Culpepper as the only NFL QBs to rush for over 40 yards and two TDs in their debut.

The Future Is Now

Hill, 30, is signed for one more year. The Saints made a $16-million commitment to him. They need to find out if he can be a starter, or if he’s destined to be nothing more than a gadget player, much like Kordell Stewart was for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

He certainly fits the modern-day style of NFL QB. Hill is able to gain yards with both his arm and legs. Brees is an old-school drop back QB.

With Hill at the helm, New Orleans deployed significantly more play action than when Brees is under center. Some 40% of Hill’s calls were play action. Brees has gone with play action on just 17% of snaps this season.

Also of note – All-Pro wideout Michael Thomas enjoyed his best game of the season, catching nine passes for 104 yards. A worrisome point, though, was that Hill underthrew receivers on deep balls, leaving questions about his arm strength.

Pick: Yes, Hill to be Saints starting QB in 2021 (-170)

2020 NFL MVP Odds Tracker

Winds of Change for Brees?

A prop issued at the start of the NFL season was listing Brees at odds of -150 to retire following the 2020 season.  It was good bet then. It’s an ever stronger play now at  -190.

The Saints are 8-2 and the #1 seed in the NFC. After playoff stumbles in each of the past three seasons, if they don’t get over the hump now, change could be in the offing regardless.

Odds Drew Brees Retires After 2020 NFL Season

Props Yes Odds No Odds
Drew Brees to retire following 2020 season -190 +160

At the start of the season, Brees admitted that he was playing on borrowed time. He recognizes that the end of his playing days are near.

If the Saints were to win the Super Bowl, Brees could walk away a champion like Peyton Manning did with Denver following Super Bowl 50. On the other hand, if they come up short again, the Saints may opt to walk away from Brees.

Pick: Brees to retire (-190)

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Robert Duff

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