Odds Favor Trump Being Impeached (Again); Odds Trump Pardons Himself Shorten to -145


Bill de Blasio

Congressional members Hakeem Jeffries D-NY, left, and Gregory Meeks D-NY, center, listens as Mayor Bill de Blasio speaks during a news conference at City Hall, Jan. 9, 2021, in New York. The Mayor and members of New York’s Congressional delegation called for swift impeachment of President Donald Trump following the violent siege of the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters that left five dead. (AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews)

  • Odds are -650 that US President Donald Trump will be impeached a second time prior to the conclusion of his term in the White House
  • A betting line of -145 is also favoring Trump pardoning himself before the end of his term
  • Trump’s time in the Oval Office will be officially concluding at 12pm EST on Jan. 20

Is being impeached better the second time around? Donald Trump may soon be finding out.

Might it be enough for Trump to beg his pardon? That factor would also appear to be in play.

Following Tuesday’s insurrection at the US capitol that saw several pro-Trump protesters forcibly invade Congress, there’s a groundswell of support to again impeach Trump. The viewpoint is he’s the person whose words and actions encouraged Tuesday’s attempt to  overthrow the process of officially declaring Joe Biden as 46th President.

A prop wager is favoring a second impeachment of Trump prior to the Jan. 20 conclusion of his term at -650. Another prop is also liking Trump to attempt to seek protection from conviction of any federal crimes by pardoning himself.

That betting line is at -145.

Donald Trump Impeached/Pardoned Odds

Prop Yes Odds No Odds
Will Donald Trump be impeached before the end of his term? -650 +400
Will Donald Trump pardon himself in his first term as President? -145 +110

Odds as of Jan. 9.

He might not be done as a Presidential candidate. Trump remains third in the 2024 Republican nomination odds at a betting line of +500.

A Quickie Impeachment?

Several major news outlets are reporting that articles of impeachment against Trump will be submitted to the US House of Representatives on Monday. Democratic lawmakers Jamie Raskin, Ted Lieu and David Cicilline are the ones writing the articles of impeachment. It’s already gained support from 176 House members.

However, there’s been no indication that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will be endorsing this call to impeach Trump. On Friday, Pelosi offered suggestions that the House will move to impeach the President if he does not resign willingly.

South Carolina Senator and prominent Trump sycophant Lindsey Graham believes that an impeachment effort would prove unsuccessful. Graham is the Senate Judiciary Committee chair.

Trump was impeached by the House in December 2019 on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The outcome of a February 2020 Senate trial resulted in Trump’s acquittal on both charges.

This time around, Trump’s actions were threatening to the lives of both Republicans and Democrats. It might be enough to sway a few more Republican Senators. They could cast their votes in favor of his conviction this time around.

Pick: Yes, Trump will be impeached (-650).

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Pardon Him

There’s no doubt that Trump is considering pardoning himself. He’s discussing the idea with White House aides. The question remaining in need of answer is whether he can actually legally do so?

A pardon would create insulation for Trump from investigation and prosecution for federal crimes. If he were to do it, however, he would be entering uncharted legal territory.

The Constitution offers the President broad pardoning powers, but they are not without limits. For example, Trump can’t pardon himself from impeachment.

Some Constitutional scholars are arguing that a pardon is about offering mercy and grace, insisting that a President can’t deliver that to himself. It’s considered to be the same as presiding as judge over their own case.

The opposition viewpoint is that Presidential pardon power is absolute.

What’s known for certain about Trump is that he’s not someone given to belief that in his case, the rules are ever applicable. He’s all about pushing the envelope, especially when it’s beneficial to him.

Pick: Yes, Trump will pardon himself (-145).

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Robert Duff

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