Odds Trump Is Removed From Office Are at +500; Chances of 25th Amendment Vote at +400


Donald Trump gesturing on stage

Calls for Donald Trump to be removed from office via the 25th Amendment heightened on Thursday after pro-Trump rioters stormed the Capitol. Photo by Michael Vadon (creative commons).

  • Betting odds of -900 are favoring that Donald Trump will complete his term as President of the United States
  • No is the -700 chalk as to whether there will be a 25th Amendment vote in Congress in order to remove Trump from office
  • Trump’s term in the White House concludes at 12:00 pm ET on Jan. 20th

A series of prop wagers regarding Donald Trump’s future as President of the United States favor him finishing out his term in the Oval Office. Yes is the -900 favorite when it comes to the question of whether Trump will complete his term as President.

Meanwhile, no is the -700 chalk when it comes to the possibility that Congress will vote to invoke the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution in order to remove Trump from office.

On Tuesday, with the encouragement of the President, Trump supporters stormed Congress, entering the chambers of the House and the Senate and temporarily halting Tuesday’s official confirmation of Joe Biden as the next POTUS.

Donald Trump Removal Odds

Prop Yes Odds No Odds
Will Donald Trump still be POTUS on Jan. 19, 2021? -900 +500
Will there be a 25th Amendment vote in Congress to remove Trump? +400 -700
Will @RealDonaldTrump be permanently removed from Twitter? +200 -300
Will Donald Trump create a Parler account before Jan. 20, 2021? +200 -300

Odds as of Jan. 7.

Trump’s term as President officially concludes Jan. 20th at 12:00 pm ET. That’s when the inauguration of Biden as the 46th President of the United States will be taking place.

Is There Enough Time For Trump To Go?

Tuesday’s insurrection, which forced Senators and members of Congress to take emergency measures for their safety, apparently was a bridge too far for some Republicans.

A number of Republican members of Congress and even some members of Trump’s cabinet offered off-the-record opinions to major television networks that the process to remove Trump should be undertaken immediately.

Time, though, is not on their side. Trump’s term in the Oval Office ends in 13 days. It’s unlikely that the impeachment process would be completed prior to the expiration of his term.

On top of that, Congress is not scheduled to be in session again until Jan. 20, the date of Biden’s inauguration.

Pick: Will Donald Trump still be POTUS on Jan. 19, 2021? Yes (-900)

2024 Republican Party Presidential Nominee Odds Tracker

The 25th Amendment Is On The Table

A President who is deemed to be unfit for office may be removed via the 25th Amendment. For this to occur, it requires two-thirds of the President’s cabinet, as well as the Vice-President, to vote in favor of the removal of a sitting President.

After Tuesday’s insurrection, there appears to be a groundswell of support backing this option to get rid of Trump. Word of discussions about the 25th Amendment amongst Trump’s cabinet reached Capitol Hill.

Even some of Trump’s most staunch allies, people like Republican Senators Tom Cotton and Lindsey Graham, called on Trump to accept the results of the election and to stop inciting mob violence.

Adam Kinzinger, a Republican member of Congress from Illinois, went one step further. He posted a video online calling for the 25th Amendment to be invoked.

Again, time is running out for this option. It’s also not certain whether there would be two-thirds support among the cabinet for the 25th Amendment.

One advantage to pursuing this option, or indeed a second impeachment of Trump, would be that if either measure succeeded, he’d be ineligible to ever run for office again.

Trump is currently the third betting choice in the 2024 election odds at +867.

Pick: Will there be a 25th Amendment vote in Congress to remove Trump? No (-700)

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Robert Duff

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