Ole Miss vs Missouri Odds, Lines, and Spread


Dru Smith

Missouri guard Dru Smith (12) shoots during an NCAA college basketball game against Georgia forward Toumani Camara (10), Tuesday, Feb. 16, 2021, in Athens, Ga. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

  • #24 Missouri is a 4-point home favorite over Ole Miss on Tuesday (Feb. 23rd, 9 pm EST)
  • The over is 8-1-1 in the Tigersโ€™ last 10 games
  • See below for analysis, odds and a betting prediction

Revenge will be on the minds of #24 Missouri when it hosts Ole Miss on Tuesday (Feb. 23rd) at 9 pm EST. The two teams met two weeks ago in Oxford, and it was the Rebels (12-9, 7-7 SEC) who pulled off the upset win.

The Tigers (14-6, 7-6 SEC) enter play fresh off a much needed victory over South Carolina, which snapped a three-game losing streak, their longest of the season.

Ole Miss vs #24 Missouri Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Ole Miss Rebels +4.0 (-110) OFF Over 134.5 (-110)
Missouri Tigers -4.0 (-110) OFF Under 134.5 (-110)

Odds taken Feb. 22nd.

Ole Miss meanwhile, fell 66-56 to Mississippi State last time out, and are 4-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 134.5.

2021 NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship Odds Tracker

Rebels Running Out of Time

The Rebels need a win this matchup to maintain its position on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Wins over #25 Tennessee and this Missouri program put them in the March Madness conversation, but another loss could derail their tournament dreams.

KJ Buffen led the way against the Bulldogs with 13 points, the only Ole Miss player to reach double figures. Devontae Shuler, who averaged 21.8 points in the previous four outings, was limited to just 4 points, on an ugly 1-for-15 shooting performance.

The Rebels shot a woeful 38% from the field as a team, knocking down only 5-of-19 looks from beyond the arc, and dishing out just 10 assists.

Ole miss ranks 12th out of 14 SEC teams in points per game, ninth in field goal percentage, and 14th in 3-point efficiency.

Defensively, they limit enemy shooters to the second lowest field goal percentage in the conference, but a lack of size hurts them down low. Mississippi State scored 36 points in the paint versus them on Sunday, and only one SEC team allows more offensive rebounds than Ole Miss.

Thatโ€™s What Tigers Do Best

Missouri meanwhile, rebounded nicely against South Carolina in their last contest, defeating the Gamecocks 93-78. Dru Smith paced the offense with 17, while Jeremiah Tilmon chipped in 17 off the bench in his first action in three games.

Mizzou shot 57.6% from the field and produced five double-digit scorers, en route to sweeping the season series with South Carolina.

The Tigers were widely considered one of the best teams in the SEC and were in contention for a top seed in the upcoming conference tournament before their recent slide. Now, they project as a middling seed in the 4-6 range at NCAA Tournament next month, a position they can solidify with a win on Tuesday, and two more versus Texas A&M and Florida down the stretch.

Missouri ranks third in the SEC in field goal percentage, fifth in opponent field goal percentage and fourth in defensive rebounding. Their games tend to be high scoring affairs, and theyโ€™ve allowed an average of 81 points over their past four outings.

Offensive Fireworks

As a result, betting the over in Tigersโ€™ contests has been very profitable. Eight of their past 10 games have eclipsed the total, including three of the past five. Their previous matchup with the Rebels cleared the number by 6 points, and the over is 5-2 when theyโ€™re favored at home.

Ole Miss on the other hand, had been an under machine until recently. The over is 3-1 in their last four contests, clearing the total by an average of 17 points when the over hits. Oddsmakers have been slow to increase the total in their games, and this appears to be another instance of that.

The Rebels have allowed over 68 points in four straight, which is 5 points higher than their season average. Combine a regressing defense against a strong offensive opponent and I like this game to clear the number as well.
Picks: Missouri -4 (-110), Over 134.5 (-110)

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Chris Amberley

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