Opening Final Four Odds – Gonzaga Favored Big Over UCLA


Drew Timme and Jalen Suggs slap hands

Gonzaga forward Drew Timme (2) celebrates with teammate Jalen Suggs (1) after an Elite 8 game against Southern California in the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium, Tuesday, March 30, 2021, in Indianapolis. Gonzaga won 85-66. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

  • Opening odds have been released for the Final Four games at the 2021 NCAA Tournament
  • Undefeated Gonzaga is the third team to bring a perfect record to the Final Four since the bracket expanded in 1985
  • See below for opening odds analysis ahead of the Final Four

The Final Four is set, and thanks to UCLA, March Madness once again lived up to its name on Day 2 of the Elite Eight. The Bruins, who had to win a First Four game just to advance to the First Round, shocked 1-seed Michigan and will now face another 1-seed in Gonzaga.

The Bulldogs meanwhile, continued their dominant season by waxing USC on Tuesday, and have opened up as a big favorite in Saturdayโ€™s Final Four (April 3rd).

Final Four Opening Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total at DraftKings Date / Time
(2) Houston +5.0 (-107) +185 Over 134.5 (-110) Sat. 5:14 pm ET
(1) Baylor -5.0 (-113) -225 Under 134.5 (-110)
Team Spread Moneyline Total Date / Time
(11) UCLA +14.0 (-107) +750 Over 146.0 (-110) Sat. 8:34 pm ET
(1) Gonzaga -14.0 (-113) -1250 Under 146.0 (-110)

Odds as of March 30th.

Zags a Double-Digit Favorite Once Again

Gonzaga opened up as a 14-point favorite over 11-seed UCLA, marking the 22nd time in its past 23 games that theyโ€™ve been favored by at least 11 points. The lone time they were a single-digit favorite during that stretch was in the Elite Eight versus the Trojans, and they emerged with an 85-66 victory.

The win was the Zagsโ€™ 27th straight by double-digits and 29th victory in 30 games by 10 or more points. Drew Timme led the way with 23 points, while Jalen Suggs and Corey Kispert each splashed 18.

Gonzaga shot 50% from the field, a number theyโ€™ve now hit in three of four tournament games, and are averaging 88.3 points per contest heading into the Final Four. Theyโ€™re a perfect 4-0 ATS, covering closing lines of 33, 15.5, 12.5 and 9, and are just the third team since the bracket expanded in 1985 to bring a perfect record into the Final Four.

The Bruins meanwhile, shocked the college basketball world again on Tuesday, knocking off a top seed just two days after upsetting 2-seed Alabama.

Johnny Juzang led the Bruins with 28 points, helping them become the first team since VCU in 2011 to advance to the Final Four after winning a First Four game. UCLA has held three of its past four opponents to 62 points or less and are 5-0 ATS at March Madness, covering by an average of 12.7 points per outing.

The total opened at 146, which is the fourth lowest over/under for a Bulldogsโ€™ game this season, and a number that only one of their past 12 contests has failed to exceed.

2021 NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship Odds Tracker

Baylor Big Favorites

The other Final Four matchup pits 1-seed Baylor against 2-seed Houston. The Bears have been one of the best programs in the nation since 2019, and boast unquestionably the best backcourt in the country. Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell and Macio Teague are all stars, and proved that once again in the Elite Eight.

The trio combined for 48 points, 11 assists and 9 boards, helping Baylor topple 3-seed Arkansas 81-72. The Bears are back in the Final Four for the first time since 1950, and have covered in three straight outings. Theyโ€™ve limited their opposition to an average of 60 points through four games, and their 9 point win over the Razorbacks was the closest any team has come to them all tournament.

The Cougars meanwhile, have had by far the easiest road of any team to the Final Four. Theyโ€™ve played four straight double-digit seeds, beating 12-seed Oregon State by 6 in the Elite Eight. Baylor will be their first top-10 opponent all season, and the first top-30 program theyโ€™ve faced since a win over Texas Tech in November.

Houston has covered in just two of four tournament games, but like the Bears boast a stingy defense. The Cougars held opponents to 58 points per outing in the regular season, and have allowed 61 points or fewer in each of its March Madness contests.

Not surprisingly, given the defensive prowess of both programs, the total for this matchup opened at just 134.5.


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Chris Amberley

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