Israel Adesanya opened as a sizeable favorite over Jan Blachowicz. Photo @theScore (Twitter)
- Dana White announced Israel Adesanya will move up in weight to fight Jan Blachowicz
- Will Adesanya become a champ-champ and set up the Jon Jones fight?
- See the opening odds for the super fight that will take place in 2021
Israel Adesanya is looking to become a champ-champ in the UFC.
During his run up the middleweight division, Adesanya had said in 2021 he would move up in weight to fight Jon Jones for the light heavyweight title. However, with Jones vacating the belt, many wondered if “The Last Stylebender” was still interested in moving up. Yet, it appears he is as White revealed on Saturday he would be fighting Jan Blachowicz sometime in the early parts of 2021, with many hinting at a March date.
Now, with the fight targeted to take place, odds have been released on the fight.
Israel Adesanya vs Jan Blachowicz Odds
Odds taken Nov. 2
What Led To The Fight Being Made?
The fight being made was due to a couple of reasons.
First off, when Jared Cannonier lost to Robert Whittaker at UFC 253, Adesanya had no clear-cut contender to fight. This is because a rematch with Whittaker didn’t make too much sense. Blachowicz also showed interest in the fight happening in March as he wants to build up his name by being the first person to beat Adesanya.
The Last @Stylebender is heading to 205lbs!@DanaWhite confirms that Israel Adesanya will fight Jan Blachowicz for the light-heavyweight title in 2021. pic.twitter.com/5moJ9wrfng
— UFC on BT Sport (@btsportufc) November 1, 2020
The UFC and Dana White were both fully in on Adesanya taking on Jon Jones in 2021 before Jones vacated the belt. So, if Adesanya wins the belt in March, a fight between Adesanya and Jones taking place late next year would be likely and would be a massive fight.
Is Adesanya Too Big Of A Favorite?
Israel Adesanya is definitely too big of a favorite, but that is partly due to the fact Jan Blachowicz gets no respect from bettors.
Blachowicz has only been the betting favorite twice in his UFC career and won both times. Ever since he lost back-to-back fights to Alexander Gustafsson and Patrick Cummins, he has been the betting underdog in seven of his past eight fights and has won six times as the underdog. This includes being over +200 three times against Dominick Reyes, Corey Anderson, and Luke Rockhold.
Adesanya is also a smaller middleweight, while Blachowicz has also talked about making a move to heavyweight eventually. So, the size and power will be on the Pole’s side with the speed and footwork on Adesanya. However, whether or not Adesanya will be able to take a punch from Blachowicz is a big question entering this fight.
To me, Adesanya should be favored but only slightly as he should be around -160.
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How Will The Odds Move?
We have already seen the odds move to -300 for Adesanya at some books, which makes no sense. Adesanya is a fan-favorite, while Blachowicz is not known to the casual bettors. So, it shouldn’t be surprising to see The Last Stylebender at this price.
So, if you like Adesanya to win this fight, I think this line is way too high to bet straight up and you will have to find unique ways to bet him like parlays or props. For Blachowicz backers, I would continue to wait as I wouldn’t be surprised if you eventually get +300 closer to fight time.
Cole graduated from Sheridan College in April of 2019 with a diploma in journalism. He now is a full-time freelance writer, focusing on MMA for sites like BJPENN and MMA News, while also covering the Toronto Blue Jays as a credentialed media member. At SBD, Cole covers the four major sports and MMA.