Opening Spread in Kansas City vs Tampa Bay in Week 12 Favors Chiefs By 3

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will put their 5-game winning streak on the line in Week 12 versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Photo by @Chiefs (Twitter).

  • The Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)  in Week 12 (Nov. 29, 4:25 pm EST)
  • KC beat Las Vegas 35-31 in Week 11, while Tampa Bay fell to the LA Rams 27-24
  • Read below for analysis on which way the line will move ahead of kickoff

The biggest game on the Week 12 slate features a pair of top-four Super Bowl contenders in South Florida. The 9-1 reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs will take on the 7-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, looking to rack up a sixth straight victory.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Opening Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-110) -174 N/A
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-110) +146 N/A

Odds taken Nov. 23rd at FanDuel.

KC opened up as a 3-point road favorite, while the total is currently off the board. The Chiefs have failed to cover in each of their last two victories, but prior to that were 6-2 against the number. Tampa Bay meanwhile, was upset 27-24 by the LA Rams on Monday Night Football, and has now covered just once in its last four outings, and is 5-6 ATS this season.

Super Bowl 55 Odds Tracker

Mahomes Magic

On paper, Kansas City’s Week 11 win came down to the wire, but you’d be hard pressed to find someone watching the game who didn’t think the Chiefs were going to pull out a victory.

Patrick Mahomes effortlessly orchestrated a game-winning TD drive in the final two minutes, hitting a wide open Travis Kelce in the end zone to secure the win.

Mahomes threw for 348 yards and two scores, while both Kelce and Tyreek Hill exceeded 100 receiving yards. KC outgained Las Vegas by 96 yards, and got a pair of rushing touchdowns from Clyde Edwards-Helaire and one from Le’Veon Bell.

If there’s one area of concern, it’s that the defense generated few stops. They allowed 30+ points for the second consecutive game, and are now surrendering over 355 yards of total offense per outing.

Brady and Bucs Fail in Primetime Again

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers meanwhile, failed to show up in a nationally televised game yet again. Tampa Bay is now 1-3 under the lights this season, and Brady looked about as bad as possible versus the Rams.

The future Hall-of-Famer averaged a measly 4.5 yards per attempt, was picked off twice and took a sack. He completed just 54.1% of his passes, and has now thrown more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (5) against top-10 defenses this season.

Aside from a victory over Green Bay, who proved yet again in Week 11 that they don’t belong among the NFL’s elite, the Bucs don’t have a single win versus a team ranked inside the top-13 by DVOA.

To make matters worse, Tampa Bay’s defense, which entered the week ranked second by DVOA, is also trending down. The Bucs surrendered 413 yards to LA on Monday Night, and have now allowed an average of 29.3 points over their last three outings. Tampa Bay will need a much better performance against KC’s juggernaut offense if they have any hopes of hanging with the champs.

Expect Movement in KC’s Favor

Few teams draw as much money as the Chiefs week in and week out, and bettors will be lining up to bet them at this short number versus the Buccaneers.

KC’s offense has yet to be slowed down all season, and the general consensus will be that Tampa Bay won’t be able to keep pace. The fact that the Buccaneers underwhelmed for the fourth straight time in a nationally televised game on Monday Night Football, will only encourage more Chiefs support.

I’d expect this number to reach -4 or -4.5 before there is a buy back on Tampa Bay.

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Chris Amberley

NFL NBA MLB NHL Golf Sport Writer & Editor