More promise on debut than bare result suggests
Bath 14:05: Bella’s Pearl 1pt win w/o the favourite 50/1
Peggoty is the odds-on favourite for this fillies’ maiden and she’s shown plenty of promise on both starts. She raced too keenly early on last time at Newbury and the drop back to five furlongs should suit her.
Rather than take her on, I prefer the focus on the without the favourite market. Pure Charmer heads that market and this is already her seventh start. Blinkers going on for the first time and a drop back to five furlongs might spark her up after a disappointing run last time but I think she’s one to take on in this market.
Me Next initially looked appealing but the early market has taken care of the value in her price. She finished ahead of Pure Charmer on debut at Yarmouth, travelling well for a long way before not quite seeing out the six furlongs so the drop back in trip will suit.
Regal Rhapsody and Kensington Agent raced against each other at Windsor on debut. The hood coming off Regal Rhapsody could help her chances while Kensington Agent looked quite green so she could improve from that.
However, it’s the only other horse in the field with experience who appeals at the prices as her chance has been completely ignored.
Bella’s Pearl made her debut over this C&D and she showed more promise than the fifteen-length margin of defeat suggests.
Having been bumped coming out of the stalls, she soon recovered to track the leaders and was travelling better than most of her rivals with three furlongs to go. She was in a close fourth with two furlongs to go but gradually started to fade from that point and was held together under hands and heels, eventually finishing in eighth.
The winner of that race went on to contest a Listed race next time and is now rated 89 while the second, third and fifth are all now rated 75+.
Coup De Force won on her second start for Stuart Kittow this season when making significant improvement from her debut so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Bella’s Pearl confirmed the promise she showed on debut and took a big step forward from that today.
The ground is a slight concern as her action suggests she wouldn’t want any cut but a dry day is forecast so it may quicken slightly by the time of her race. She has also has to prove that she isn’t just a three-furlong filly and finish the race off much stronger.
However, given the potential for improvement I think her chance has been quite significantly underestimated in the without the favourite market and any 14/1 or bigger appeals.
More suitable test for him than testing ground points
Downpatrick 17:05: Pass The Bucket 1pt win 33/1
Pass The Bucket had two starts in the Irish pointing field last Autumn and showed enough promise in those to suggest that he can run better on rules debut than the market suggests.
He made his debut at Tattersalls Farm and, although he could never get competitive, he wasn’t disgraced in a good maiden having not been given a hard time once he had no chance of reaching the leaders. The winner was Dunboyne, who is now rated 129 over hurdles, while the second and third have since won a maiden hurdle and bumper respectively.
He was beaten further on his second start at Tinahely in awful conditions when his jumping cost him all chance. He was still travelling well going out on to the final circuit and made very bad mistakes at 4 and 3 out and lost touch with the leading group. He rallied to close on them a little on the long run to 2 out but had nothing left in the straight and was beaten 33 lengths.
Pass The Bucket’s action suggests he wants good ground so the ground today will be far more suitable for him than what he raced on in points. His jumping was also clearly an issue in points so the lack of obstacles will help his chance and I think the sharper test could suit too.
It may be that he just doesn’t have much ability but given the potential for improvement in these circumstances and that this is far from a strong bumper, any 20/1 or bigger appeals.
Jockey switch signals intent
Killarney 17:55: High Altitude 1pt win 12/1
Four of High Altitude’s five successes in his career have come at Killarney and I think he has a good chance of adding to that tally today.
After winning a rated race at the track last August, he found life a bit tough for the rest of the season off marks in the mid-high 80s.
His mark has continued to drop this season but in three of his four runs this season he’s been ridden by Shelley Brickley, whose only rides under rules have been the three on High Altitude. Her inexperience has understandably shown on those occasions and High Altitude has been well held in those races.
Mikey Sheehy rode High Altitude in his other race this season at the Curragh and that was a more promising effort off a 6lb higher mark than he races off tonight.
He was better away from the stalls than he has been on other occasions this season before being restrained to race in midfield. He travelled well and made headway under driving to be just behind the leaders with two furlongs to go before steadily fading to finish thirteenth.
That was a very strong handicap. The winner went on to finish second in a handicap at Royal Ascot, the third won last night, the fourth has won a Listed race since and the sixth won next time.
Robbie Colgan is in the saddle today which suggests that a better performance can be expected from High Altitude than has generally been the case this evening.
There is a chance that High Altitude is just not as good as he was as even allowing for the jockey’s inexperience he ran badly last time but given the potential for bounce back, any 10/1 or bigger appeals.