Peru vs Paraguay Odds & Prediction


Andre Carrillo, Peru, celebrate

Peru’s Andre Carrillo, left, celebrates with teammate Renato Tapia after scoring his side’s opening goal against Venezuela during a Copa America soccer match at National stadium in Brasilia, Brazil, Sunday, June 27, 2021. (AP Photo/Bruna Prado)

  • The Copa America quarter-finals kick off in Goiania, Brazil at 5:00pm ET on Friday with Peru taking on Paraguay
  • Peruvians finished second in Group B while Paraguayans came in third in Group A
  • See all odds, best bets and prediction for Peru vs Paraguay

Paraguay is favored to beat Peru in the Copa America quarter-finals in Brazil on Friday despite having the lesser of the two records coming out of the group stage.

In Group A, Paraguay finished third of the five nations with two wins and two defeats.

Meanwhile, Peru was second in Group B with two wins, one draw and one defeat – with that setback against table-toppers Brazil.

Peru vs Paraguay Copa America Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline at DraftKings Total
Peru vs Paraguay PER +0.75 (-305) | PAR -0.75 (+240) PER +200 | PAR +165 | DRAW +190 Ov 1.5 (-190) | Un 1.5 (+150)

Odds as of July 1

However, it is fair to argue that Paraguay had the tougher section in which to compete – with Argentina finishing first and Uruguay second.

Each of Paraguay’s defeats came against those two powerful sides – both times by 1-0 scores.

Furthermore, both those fixtures were keenly contested and that has swung the oddsmakers at DraftKings in favor of the Paraguayans.

Paraguay is rated as a favorite for a win at +165 which looks to be the best value here.  Peru is at +200. The draw after 90 minutes is +190.

Impressive Win Against Chile

Paraguay’s 2-0 defeat of a tough Chile outfit will also have impressed the analysts.

Peru has not lost against Paraguay in the last seven encounters – with its last defeat back in 2014. That record includes six straight wins for Peru before a 2-2 draw last time out in a World Cup qualifying tie last October. They were also able to make it all the way final in 2019 before losing to Brazil.

Paraguay, meanwhile, has won only two of its last 13 games in the competition – with only five wins from 20 matches in all competitions.

The Group A campaign opened for Paraguay with a 3-1 defeat of Bolivia which eventually finished bottom of the table and was eliminated.

Then, subsequently, there was a tight 1-0 defeat by the Argentines.

The further 2-0 defeat of Chile put Paraguay in a good position to reach the knockout stage. And that proved to be the case despite another narrow 1-0 defeat by Uruguay in the final group game.

Peru, meanwhile, began its tournament with a 4-0 thumping by an in-form Brazil side. Things certainly picked with a 2-1 defeat of Colombia. They followed those results with a tough 2-2 draw against Ecuador before beating Venezuela 1-0 to second second place.

Peru vs Paraguay Statistics

2 Wins 2
1 Draws 0
1 Losses 2
5 Goals 5
7 Goals Against 3
6 Yellow Cards 7
0 Red Cards 0
1 Clean Sheets 1

Tactically, Paraguay’s coach Eduardo Berizza is a disciple of the much-revered Argentinian coach Marcelo Bielsa, who is currently in charge of Leeds United in England’s Premier League.

It means they play with a quick-attacking, high press while also maintaining their strong defensive traditions.

Paraguay May Lose Key Man Almiron

However, the team is likely to be without its key man – Newcastle United midfielder Miguel Almiron, who has a muscle strain.

Furthermore, the quick wide man Antonio Bereiro will certainly be missing.

Peru’s coach Ricardo Gareca likes to play with a tightly-drilled 4-2-3-1 formation.

The leading scorer, from the Saudi Arabian club Al-Hilal is Andre Carillo. He scored in both of the final two group games against Ecuador and Venezuela.

The Italian-born forward Gianluca Lapadula of the Serie B side Benevento – formerly with AC Milan – has also become a key man since opting last October to play for the land of his mother’s birth.

Paraguay’s leading scorer at the competition is the 28-year-old forward Angel Romero who struck twice in the opening game win against Bolivia. They are solid defensively and there have now been 22 games without it conceding more than two goals.

In fact, Paraguay’s racked up seven fixtures in the Copa America without conceding more than one.

Furthermore, the current standings in the South American World Cup qualifying group may provide some pointers to how this last-eight tie may turn out.

Paraguay is in sixth place after one win, four draws and only one defeat.

Peru. meanwhile, is bottom of the 10-team section with only one win. One draw and four defeats.

That could be significant. And in conclusion, it points towards a win for Pagauay this time around.

Pick: Paraguay +165


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John Dillon

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