PSG celebrate after scoring their team second goal during the French Cup soccer match between PSG and Lille at the Parc des Princes stadium in Paris, France, Wednesday, March 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Thibault Camus)
- PSG and Lille matchup on April 3, 2021 in Matchday 31 of the Ligue 1 season
- Level on points atop the table, this is a potentially decisive match in the title race
- Get the latest odds, betting preview and a pick below
PSG and Lille meet on April 3, 2021, in what could prove to be the definitive moment of Ligue 1’s title race. Ahead of Matchday 31, the two teams are level on points at the top of the table. Following two losses in their last five league matches, only goal difference is keeping PSG top of the table.
Unsurprisingly, the latest Ligue 1 odds favor PSG to win this one. The reigning champions have won three of four against Lille, and haven’t conceded to their weekend opponents since April 2019.
PSG vs Lille Odds
|Matchup||Spread||Moneyline||Total at DraftKings|
|PSG vs Lille||PSG -1 (+118) | LIL +1 (-148)||PSG -155 | LIL +430 | DRAW +270||Ov 2.5 (-110) | Un 2.5 (-113)|
All odds as of Apr 2
Marco Verratti and Alessandro Florenzi are unavailable for Saturday’s match. They join Juan Bernat on the sidelines, while Mauro Icardi is a doubt. There’s a suspicion the Parisians could rest Kylian Mbappe after a heavy workload through the international break, too. Mauricio Pochettino will have one eye on the midweek Champions League clash with Bayern Munich.
Pochettino isn’t exactly short of options, of course, with Neymar in line to start if Mbappe is given a rest. The midfield is markedly weaker in Verratti’s absence, however, which could enable Lille to get a bit more control of the match. Their league meeting earlier this season finished 0-0, but PSG had almost 70-percent possession. While a similar pattern is probable this weekend, Lille will hope their midfield can take advantage with Verratti sitting out.
The visitors have no major injury concerns. Jeremy Pied, the backup right-back, is the only absentee. Christophe Galtier has options with both personnel and system. He will probably stick with the 4-4-2, but he could opt to drop another player into midfield.
🔜 #PSGLOSC, Round 3️⃣ … just two more sleeps ! pic.twitter.com/GRMG7TNWTo
— LOSC Lille EN (@LOSC_EN) April 1, 2021
Lille have picked up just nine of the last 18 available points. Scoring goals has been a problem – only three teams have generated fewer expected goals over that span. Their defense remains resilient with just 19 goals conceded all season, but they have failed to score in two of their last six. Dropping points to Strasbourg, Brest and Nimes was a major blow to their title credentials.
🆕📸☀️ A lovely day for training!
🔜 #PSGLOSC pic.twitter.com/7Yga2THxhi
— Paris Saint-Germain (@PSG_English) March 31, 2021
PSG have had their fair share of slip-ups, too. This match and the title race are beautifully poised because of it. While the 4-2 win over Lyon before the break was a massive boost for Pochettino’s team, their loss to Nantes was indicative of the sloppiness which has riddled their domestic campaign. The defense has simply not been good enough. They are second in Ligue 1 in errors leading to an opponent shot attempt.
2021 Ligue 1 Odds Tracker
Despite leading the league with over 60-percent average possession, PSG is nowhere near the best defensive team by expected goals against. They are fortunate to have only conceded 21 – Keylor Navas has frequently bailed them out. Advanced numbers make him the best goalkeeper in the division by a distance.
Between 1️⃣ and 🔟, how excited are we for #PSGLOSC tomorrow ? pic.twitter.com/GOcOIYf4IZ
— LOSC Lille EN (@LOSC_EN) April 2, 2021
Lille rank in the top half in completed long passes, and just behind PSG in progressive passes on the season. PSG lead the league in pressures in the attacking third, but Lille are well-equipped to play through it. The visitors will get chances against this PSG defense. Mistakes are possible if they are put under pressure.
PSG vs Lille Ligue 1 Stats
|56 yellows, 5 reds||Cards||50 yellows, 1 red|
|14.6||Shots per match||13.2|
|61%||Shots inside the area||53%|
|60.89||Understat expected points||55.49|
Lille Keep It Close
Given the inconsistency from PSG this season, the +430 straight up on Lille to win should tempt some bettors. Lille’s form hasn’t been great, but their attack should have chances to generate some better chances with the space PSG will leave behind.
The form of Lille is a worry too, though. They haven’t been playing like title contenders of late. Eight teams have picked up more points since March 8th.
Sitting on the fence with a draw could be a good value option here given the stalemate earlier in the campaign. With PSG clearly focused on their Champions League match in midweek, however, Lille to cover at +1 is probably the best bet.
Pick: Lille +1 (-148)
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Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.