PSG vs Lille Odds & Prediction

PSG vs Lille

PSG celebrate after scoring their team second goal during the French Cup soccer match between PSG and Lille at the Parc des Princes stadium in Paris, France, Wednesday, March 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Thibault Camus)

  • PSG and Lille matchup on April 3, 2021 in Matchday 31 of the Ligue 1 season
  • Level on points atop the table, this is a potentially decisive match in the title race
  • Get the latest odds, betting preview and a pick below

PSG and Lille meet on April 3, 2021, in what could prove to be the definitive moment of Ligue 1โ€™s title race. Ahead of Matchday 31, the two teams are level on points at the top of the table. Following two losses in their last five league matches, only goal difference is keeping PSG top of the table.

Unsurprisingly, the latest Ligue 1 odds favor PSG to win this one. The reigning champions have won three of four against Lille, and havenโ€™t conceded to their weekend opponents since April 2019.

PSG vs Lille Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total at DraftKings
PSG vs Lille PSG -1 (+118) | LIL +1 (-148) PSG -155 | LIL +430 | DRAW +270 Ov 2.5 (-110) | Un 2.5 (-113)

All odds as of Apr 2

Selection Issues

Marco Verratti and Alessandro Florenzi are unavailable for Saturdayโ€™s match. They join Juan Bernat on the sidelines, while Mauro Icardi is a doubt. Thereโ€™s a suspicion the Parisians could rest Kylian Mbappe after a heavy workload through the international break, too. Mauricio Pochettino will have one eye on the midweek Champions League clash with Bayern Munich.

Pochettino isnโ€™t exactly short of options, of course, with Neymar in line to start if Mbappe is given a rest. The midfield is markedly weaker in Verrattiโ€™s absence, however, which could enable Lille to get a bit more control of the match. Their league meeting earlier this season finished 0-0, but PSG had almost 70-percent possession. While a similar pattern is probable this weekend, Lille will hope their midfield can take advantage with Verratti sitting out.

The visitors have no major injury concerns. Jeremy Pied, the backup right-back, is the only absentee. Christophe Galtier has options with both personnel and system. He will probably stick with the 4-4-2, but he could opt to drop another player into midfield.

Form Concerns

Lille have picked up just nine of the last 18 available points. Scoring goals has been a problem โ€“ only three teams have generated fewer expected goals over that span. Their defense remains resilient with just 19 goals conceded all season, but they have failed to score in two of their last six. Dropping points to Strasbourg, Brest and Nimes was a major blow to their title credentials.

PSG have had their fair share of slip-ups, too. This match and the title race are beautifully poised because of it. While the 4-2 win over Lyon before the break was a massive boost for Pochettinoโ€™s team, their loss to Nantes was indicative of the sloppiness which has riddled their domestic campaign. The defense has simply not been good enough. They are second in Ligue 1 in errors leading to an opponent shot attempt.

2021 Ligue 1 Odds Tracker

Despite leading the league with over 60-percent average possession, PSG is nowhere near the best defensive team by expected goals against. They are fortunate to have only conceded 21 โ€“ Keylor Navas has frequently bailed them out. Advanced numbers make him the best goalkeeper in the division by a distance.

Lille rank in the top half in completed long passes, and just behind PSG in progressive passes on the season. PSG lead the league in pressures in the attacking third, but Lille are well-equipped to play through it. The visitors will get chances against this PSG defense. Mistakes are possible if they are put under pressure.

PSG vs Lille Ligue 1 Stats

1st Position 2nd
67 Goals scored 50
60.2% Average possession 53.1%
56 yellows, 5 reds Cards 50 yellows, 1 red
14.6 Shots per match 13.2
61% Shots inside the area 53%
60.89 Understat expected points 55.49

Lille Keep It Close

Given the inconsistency from PSG this season, the +430 straight up on Lille to win should tempt some bettors. Lilleโ€™s form hasnโ€™t been great, but their attack should have chances to generate some better chances with the space PSG will leave behind.

The form of Lille is a worry too, though. They havenโ€™t been playing like title contenders of late. Eight teams have picked up more points since March 8th.

Sitting on the fence with a draw could be a good value option here given the stalemate earlier in the campaign. With PSG clearly focused on their Champions League match in midweek, however, Lille to cover at +1 is probably the best bet.

Pick: Lille +1 (-148)

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Sam Cox

NBA MLB Soccer Sports Writer

NBA MLB Soccer