Rafael Nadal vs Diego Schwartzman Odds & Prediction

Rafael Nadal vs Diego Schwartzman

Argentina’s Diego Schwartzman celebrates after defeating Germany’s Jan-Lennard Struff during their fourth round match on day 9, of the French Open tennis tournament at Roland Garros in Paris, France, Monday, June 7, 2021. (AP Photo/Thibault Camus)

  • This French Open quarterfinal meeting between Rafael Nadal and Diego Schwartzman is their first of 2021
  • The two met eight times over the previous two-plus seasons, with Nadal winning all but one of their matches
  • In five previous Grand Slam meetings, Schwartzman has taken just two sets. We break down the matchup

Rafael Nadal remains the overwhelming favorite to win his 14th French Open title, as he was before the tournament began. On Wednesday, June 9, 2021 at 7:30 am EST he’ll face the tenth seed in the tournament in a quarterfinal match featuring Rafael Nadal vs Diego Schwartzman.

Rafael Nadal vs Diego Schwartzman Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[3] Rafael Nadal (ESP) -8.5 (-143) -2000 O 29.5 (+100)
[10] Diego Schwartzman (ARG) +8.5 (+116) +1100 U 29.5 (-125)

Odds as of June 8 at DraftKings

The man from Mallorca remains at -305 to reach the final. That means that he is expected not only to beat Diego Schwartzman Wednesday, but also to defeat the winner of the other quarterfinal in his half of the draw between Novak Djokovic and Matteo Berrettini.

2021 French Open Odds Tracker

One Victory in 11 Attempts for Schwartzman vs Nadal

Schwartzman will always be able to boast that he once beat the greatest clay-court player of all time on his favorite surface.

But while no victory comes with an asterisk, the Argentine’s upset win in the quarterfinals of Rome last fall came in Nadal’s first tournament in nearly seven months.

Nadal did not travel to the US to play the Cincinnati-US Open double in the bubble at Flushing Meadow. He cited concerns over traveling during the pandemic as the reason.

Going into Rome, Schwartzman had already played three events after the restart, including a tuneup in Kitzbuhel. So he was more match-ready.

Still, a win is a win.

For a host of reasons, including that shocker of a loss, Nadal downplayed his chances in Paris last fall.

Of course, he rolled through and won his 13th French Open without dropping a set.

Rafael Nadal vs Diego Schwartzman Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2020 French Open (SF) Outdoor Clay 6-3, 6-3, 7-6 (0) Nadal
2020 Rome Masters (QF) Outdoor Clay 6-2, 7-5 Schwartzman
2019 Davis Cup Finals (QF) Indoor Hard 6-1, 6-2 Nadal
2019 US Open (QF) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 7-5, 6-2 Nadal
2019 Indian Wells (R32) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 6-1 Nadal
2018 French Open (QF) Outdoor Clay 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 Nadal
2018 Madrid Masters (R16) Outdoor Clay 6-3, 6-4 Nadal
2018 Australian Open (R16) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 6-7 (4), 6-3, 6-3 Nadal
2017 Monte Carlo Masters (QF) Outdoor Clay 6-4, 6-4 Nadal
2015 US Open (R64) Outdoor Hard 7-6 (5), 6-3, 7-5 Nadal
2013 Acapulco (R32) Outdoor Clay 6-2, 6-2 Nadal

No Sets Lost for Nadal or Schwartzman

Nadal has played 12 sets through his first four rounds, the minimum required as he hasn’t dropped one.

In only two did Nadal lose more than four games.

Schwartzman also hasn’t dropped a set. He appeared to be headed towards that against Jan-Lennard Struff of Germany in a tricky round of 16 match. But then he turned it around magnificently.

Meanwhile, Nadal thumped rising young Italian Jannik Sinner Monday in much the same way he did a year ago when they met in the quarterfinals. A tight first set – and then Nadal rolled.

Coincidentally, after that win over Sinner in 2020, Nadal’s semifinal opponent was … Schwartzman.

Same scenario, just one round earlier.

Nadal won 6-3, 6-3, 7-6 (0) last October. And you’d expect a similar scenario to play itself out Wednesday.

Rafael Nadal vs Diego Schwartzman Head-to-Head

35 (June 3, 1986) Age 28 (Aug. 16, 1992)
Manacor, Mallorca Birthplace Buenos Aires, Argentina
6-1 Height 5-7
88 Career ATP Singles Titles 4
No. 1 (Aug. 18, 2008) Career High Ranking No. 8 (Oct. 12, 2020)
No. 3 Current Ranking  No. 10
$124,480,032 Career Prize Money $9,673,777
22-3 2021 Won/Loss record 16-10
10 Career Head to Head 1

A Return to Form for Schwartzman

If people thought this French Open was going to mark the return to form of former finalist Dominic Thiem, that proved wishful thinking.

It turns out it marks a return to form for Schwartzman.

The Argentine has struggled in 2021 after going 16-7 after the 2020 restart and qualifying for the ATP’s year-end finals.

Other than his title at home in Buenos Aires in February, Schwartzman has struggled to put together wins. He lost in the first round of his last three clay-court tuneups coming into Paris.

But this is likely where it will end.

Some Value, Despite Overwhelming Odds for Nadal

Given the prohibitive odds, a Schwartzman upset win is somewhat of a foolhardy risk. But there are other prop values worth looking at.

If Schwartzman can do even a little bit better than the 31 games played last fall against Nadal (caveat: the conditions this week suit the 13-time champion far better), the total games goes into plus-money at 29.5 games (+108).

Nadal winning in straight sets offers far more interesting odds than the outright win, and is the better play. 

Best Bet: Nadal in three sets (-200)

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Stephanie Myles

Sports Writer