Red Sox vs Yankees Odds, Picks, Predictions, and Probable Pitchers


Jameson Taillon throws pitch

New York Yankees starting pitcher Jameson Taillon delivers during the first inning of a baseball game against the Houston Astros, Sunday, July 11, 2021, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

  • The New York Yankees are -115 favorites to defeat the Boston Red Sox in Sunday’s American League game at Yankee Stadium
  • Boston roughed up New York starter Jameson Taillon for six hits and three earned runs in 5.1 innings during a 7-3 loss on June 5
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction for the game

The Boston Red Sox (56-37, 28-18 away) and New York Yankees (47-44, 24-23 home) complete a four-game weekend series with a Sunday night clash at Yankee Stadium. The first pitch is slated for 7:08pm ET.

Of late, when the Red Sox and Yankees get together on the baseball diamond, one of the teams is going streaking. Prior to Saturday’s rain-shortened 3-1 New York victory, the BoSox were the winners of all seven meetings with the Bronx Bombers this season. Taking it back to 2020, Boston had won eight in a row from the Yankees.

Prior to that stretch, the Yanks put together a 12-game winning streak against the Red Sox. They won 18 of 19 overall.

Red Sox vs Yankees Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Boston Red Sox -105 -1.5 (+160) O 9.5 (-105)
New York Yankees -115 +1.5 (-190) U 9.5 (-115)

Odds as of July 17th at DraftKings.

The Yankees are 1-5 straight up as a betting favorite against the Red Sox this season. That includes an 1-3 slate at Yankee Stadium. Five of the eight BoSox-Yanks games this season have gone under.

New York is 3-5 straight up in the last eight games played at Yankee Stadium. The Red Sox are 4-1 there in the last five visits.

Perez vs Taillon

7-5 Record 4-4
3.09 ERA 4.90
5.36 xERA 4.03
1.48 WHIP 1.27
2.38 SO/W Ratio 3.58

Taillon Finding His Game

Yankees right-hander Jameson Taillon (4-4, 4.90 ERA) is hitting his stride, even if he isn’t piling up the wins. The 29-year-old Canadian is 3-0 over his past four starts. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of those four starts.

Taillon is unbeaten since a May 31 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. However, that’s a deceptive statistic.

He’s 3-0 over his past seven starts. At the same time, Taillon’s ERA over that span is 4.93, above his season total. He’s allowed 36 hits over 35 innings pitched, also a higher total than his season rate (81 hits in 82.2 innings). His WHIP over the last seven starts is 1.29, higher than his season average of 1.25.

This unbeaten stretch included a June 5 start against the Red Sox. Taillon surrendered six hits and allowed three earned runs over 5.1 innings. He didn’t figure in the decision of a 7-3 Yankees loss.

During the month of June, Taillon’s ERA was 6.43. However, in two July starts, he’s posting an ERA of 2.08. He’s also recorded six-plus innings pitched in consecutive starts for the first time this season.

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Best Bet for Red Sox vs Yankees

Lefty Martin Perez, who takes the hill for the Red Sox, is 3-1 in his last four starts. However, he’s been erratic since working a season-high 7.2 innings during a 5-1 win over the Houston Astros on June 3.

In three games since, he’s worked five or more innings and got the win in each outing. On the other hand, Perez has lasted just 3.2 innings or less in his four other starts since June 3. He’s 0-3 with one no-decision in those starts.

The no-decision came against the Yankees on June 25. Perez was chased after 3.2 innings. He allowed six hits and three runs, albeit all unearned runs. Boston rallied for a 5-3 victory.

 

His six starts of 3.2 innings or fewer this season are tied for second-most in the majors. Boston has scored 46 runs in the seven games won by Perez this season. That’s an average of 6.57 runs per game. During his five losses, they’ve allowed 45 runs. That works out to nine runs surrendered per game.

Perez has won his last four road starts, though. His road splits are far more impressive than his work at Fenway Park. He’s 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA. At home, he’s 3-4 with a 5.80.

Perez shows a 1.10 WHIP on the road and a 3.33 strikeouts to walks ratio. At Fenway, he’s 1.80 and 1.95 in those statistical departments. Perez has been touched for nine home runs in 11 Fenway starts. He’s only given up two long balls over seven road starts.

Pick: Boston Red Sox (-105).

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Robert Duff

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