Roger Federer vs Hubert Hurkacz Odds & Prediction

Roger Federer vs Herbert Hurkacz

Switzerland’s Roger Federer celebrates winning a point against Italy’s Lorenzo Sonego during the men’s singles fourth round match on day seven of the Wimbledon Tennis Championships in London, Monday, July 5, 2021. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)

  • Roger Federer is the -278 favorite to defeat Hubert Hurkacz in their Wimbledon men’s singles quarterfinal on Wednesday, July 7
  • Federer is the winner of a record eight Wimbledon men’s singles titles
  • Hurkacz is through to the Wimbledon quarterfinals for the first time in his career

Is history on the way to repeating itself for Roger Federer? Hubert Hurkacz certainly hopes that isn’t the case.

Five years ago, knee and back injuries halted Federer’s 2016 tennis campaign. The Swiss star came back with a vengeance in 2017, winning both the Australian Open and Wimbledon.

This time, Federer, 39, is coming back from knee surgery that ended his 2020 season. And he’s looking more like the Roger of old than an old Roger on the grass courts of the All England Lawn Tennis Club. Federer has captured a record eight men’s singles titles at Wimbledon.

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He’s the heavy favorite to dispatch Hurkacz in this match. Federer has been established as the -278 chalk.

Roger Federer vs Hubert Hurkacz Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
Roger Federer -278 -4.5 (-120) O 37.5 (-139)
Hubert Hurkacz +215 +4.5 (+250) U 37.5 (+110)

Odds as of July 5 at DraftKings

Wednesday’s match is slated for a 6:00 am ET start. The broadcast is being carried by ESPN.

Federer In 18th Quarterfinal

There was serious reason to doubt that Federer could deliver the goods at Wimbledon this year. The Swiss star underwent two arthroscopic right knee surgeries in 2020 and was only recently back on court. Prior to launching this run at the All England Club, he was a middling 5-3 for the 2021 season.

Federer, who turns 40 in a month, frankly admits he didn’t know what to expect from his performance when he was arriving at Wimbledon a little over a week ago.

In the opening round against Adrian Mannarino, Federer had won the fourth set to pull even at 2-2 when a back injury forced Mannarino to retire from the match. Fast forward to the round of 16, where Federer dispatched Lorenzo Sonego in straight sets 7-5, 6-4, 6-2 in two hours all 11 minutes.

Federer has dropped just one set since the first round. With the win over Sonego, he improved to 105-13 all-time at Wimbledon.

Hurkacz Upends Medvedev

In a marathon match that lasted five sets and two days due to a rain delay, Poland’s Hurkacz overcame world #2 Daniil Medvedev. The three hour, two-minute tilt finished 2-6, 7-6(7-2), 3-6 6-3, 6-3.

Hurkacz won 50 of 69 net points. He also converted 3-of-4 break opportunities. Medvedev fell to 2-8 all-time in fifth sets.

Playing in Wimbledon’s main draw for the third time, the world #18 is through to his first quarterfinal appearance. He’d never been beyond the third round of a Grand Slam even previously. That third-round showing was at Wimbledon in 2019.

Like Federer, Hurkacz’s arrival at Wimbledon was shrouded in uncertainty. He’d gone 1-6 over his previous seven matches. He did win his first ATP Masters 1000 crown earlier this year at the Miami Open, though.

Hurkacz is just the fifth Polish player to reach the Wimbledon quarterfinals. Of that group, only Jerzy Janowicz (2013) was able to move on to make a semifinal appearance.

2021 Wimbledon Odds Tracker

Federer Holding the Edge

Both of these players will be facing a seeded opponent for the first time in the tournament. Hurkacz is the 14th seed, while world #8 Federer is seeded sixth.

Their only previous on-court meeting came at Indian Wells in 2019. Federer won in straight sets 6-4, 6-4.

Both players are performing solidly on grass courts this season. Federer is 5-1, while Hurkacz is 4-2. However, Hurkacz is just 10-10 lifetime on grass, whereas Federer is 181-20.

Roger Federer vs Hubert Hurkacz Stats

8 WTA Ranking 18
103 WTA Titles 3
157 WTA Final Appearances 3
9-3 W-L (2021) 19-11
73% Service Games Won 73%
16% Return Games Won 18%
66% Break Points Saved 63%
67 Aces 210

Federer is looking to break the tie for most Grand Slams won by a men’s player. Both he and Rafael Nadal own 20 Grand Slam singles titles.

At 24, the 6-foot-5 Hurkacz is 15 years Federer’s junior. However, he’s played now for three straight days. Federer is well-rested following his routine dispatching of Sonego. How much will Hurkacz have left in the tank to face a player he admits is his idol?

Pick: Roger Federer -275; Federer 3-1 (+300)

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Robert Duff

Sports Writer