Sassuolo vs Inter Milan, AC Milan vs Fiorentina & More

Sassuolo in Serie A

Sassuolo’s Giacomo Raspadori, right, celebrates after scoring his side’s opening goal during the Serie A soccer match between Lazio and Sassuolo at the Rome Olympic Stadium Saturday, July 11, 2020. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino)

  • Serie A Week 9 features three games on Saturday, followed by five on Sunday and two more Monday afternoon
  • Bologna’s streak of conceding goals rages on as they’ve now allowed a goal in 41-straight matches
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Week 9 here

Sandwiched between two more Champions League rounds, domestic league play takes place this weekend as well. For Italy, that’s Round 9, which will be played over Saturday-Monday.

After a blazing start to the season which saw average goals per game topping 4.1 in three of the opening five rounds, the scoring has cooled off just a bit amidst a heavy fixture congestion.

In what looks to be a cracking match between Sassuolo and Inter on Saturday, the Neroverdi have a chance to at least temporarily take over top spot in the table. While Roma will also being eyeing the summit when they travel to Napoli on Sunday, and others, like Crotone, are still searching for their first win of the campaign.

Total goals scored have been just 24 and 18 the past two rounds. While both teams scoring has cashed in only 7/20 matches and UNDER 2.5 totals are 13-7. A home team has also only won four times in the past 20 matches.

Serie A Week 9 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Sassuolo vs Inter Milan +350 +320 -143
Benevento vs Juventus +850 +475 -350
Atalanta vs Verona -300 +450 +750
Lazio vs Udinese -143 +300 +375
AC Milan vs Fiorentina -143 +280 +400
Bologna vs Crotone -163 +320 +425
Cagliari vs Spezia +115 +240 +240
Napoli vs  Roma +110 +280 +220
Torino vs Sampdoria +150 +250 +175
Genoa vs Parma +162 +250 +162

All odds taken Nov 26 at Bet365

I’m not one to make a case for too many UNDERs in Serie A, but if there was to be one this round, it could come on Monday afternoon when Genoa hosts Parma. Genoa in 19th, have scored just six goals so far, while Parma, 17th have eight. That’s a point towards a low-scoring match.

Though a counter-point is that both defenses are poor having allowed 16 times each. Parma, on the road, has also seen no fewer than three goals in each of their four. Furthermore, last year Parma ran out as 5-1 and 4-1 winners in this matchup. Tough to call.

Seven teams are currently 6-2 to OVER 2.5 totals, and two will meet when Torino hosts Sampdoria on Monday. Between them, each has kept just one clean sheet over eight rounds.

Read on as we break down the weekend card with some of our best bets from Serie A Round 9.

Sassuolo vs Inter Milan

Now eight rounds into Serie A play and these two teams have just a single defeat between them. That goes the fifth-place Inter Milan at 4-3-1 who will travel to face Sassuolo, second-place at 5-3-0 at 9:00 am EST Saturday morning.

If the last two meetings between these teams are any indication of what we may see this weekend, we could be in for a goal-fest. Last season there were a combined 13 goals scored over two games. Inter won 4-3 on the road last October before the teams split the points during a 3-3 draw in June with Inter at home.

In that first meeting, two goals each by Romelu Lukaku and Latauro Marinez gave Inter a 4-1 lead, before Sassuolo clawed back with late goals by Filip Duricic and Jeremy Boga, to add to an earlier goal from Daniel Berardi. Inter’s second two goals did come from penalties though. In the 3-3 draw, Sassuolo struck early but fell behind 2-1 at the half. The score remained that way until Berardi leveled in the 81st and the teams exchanged goals in the 86′ and 89′ minutes to end level.

Last year’s high-scoring results were actually out of the norm for meetings between Sassuolo and Inter as four of the previous six matches saw just a single or zero goals scored.

This season, Sassuolo are still undefeated and have alternated wins and draws in their past five. After drawing 0-0 with Udinese in Round 7, they were 2-0 road winners against Verona last weekend. They’ve scored in all but that Udinese match which is no surprise given their attacking style. But what is a surprise is that they’ve tightened up defensively with three-straight clean sheets, including against a strong Napoli side on the road.

Inter, like Sassuolo, have scored 20 goals on the season which is the highest total in the division. They’re currently undefeated in four after last weekend’s 4-2 win over Torino. With 13 goals conceded they have struggled on the back though, having kept only one clean sheet so far.

On Wednesday, they hosted Real Madrid in Champions League play and suffered a 2-0 defeat. The match saw Inter behind the eight-ball early conceding a penalty in the seventh minute and being reduced to ten men when Arturo Vidal was sent off in the 33′.

To me, everything here points to a high-scoring affair with both teams scoring and OVER 2.5 goals looking to be a solid investment at -138 odds. Given Sassuolo’s form, improved defense and Inter’s short week, I actually also see some upset potential with a straight Sassuolo win, double chance (-110) or draw no bet (+240) wager as well.

But for a best bet, I’m going to look to the team total market and back Sassuolo to score at least twice in the match.

Pick: Sassuolo Over 1.5 Team Goals (+150)

2021 Serie A Odds Tracker

Bologna vs Crotone

If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Bologna haven’t kept a clean sheet in 41 matches.

Now if there was a game where that streak could come to an end, it would have to be this one when they face Crotone at 9:00 am EST on Sunday.

Crotone has found life hard in Italy’s top-flight and find themselves at the foot of the table at 0-2-6 (WDL).

Last weekend they were defeated 2-0 by Lazio, their second-straight game where they were held off the scoresheet. Overall they have just six goals on the year but did manage to find the back of the net in five of their opening six matches. That included goals against Sassuolo, Juventus and Atalanta.

These teams last met in the Coppa Italia in 2018 where Bologna won 3-0 at home. In Serie A, the teams played in the 2017/18 season and Crotone won both meetings, 3-2 on the road and 1-0 at home.

The odds for a high-scoring match with goals at both ends are favorable. However, I don’t think the oddsmakers are fully taking into account how leaky Bologna’s defense has been, despite how poor Crotone has been offensively.

Conceding in 41-straight games is no easy feat. This season Bologna has conceded multiple goals in four of eight. With a 1-0 defeat to Napoli and 2-1 win over Sampdoria, there are some signs that they could keep a clean sheet somewhere on the horizon, but for now I’ll need to see it to believe it.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-105)

AC Milan vs Fiorentina

Table-toppers AC Milan will host the 15th place Fiorentina on Sunday at 9:00 am EST.

Milan remain one of only three teams to still be undefeated on the year and lead second-place Sassuolo by two points. They’ve alternated wins and draws in their past five matches, coming off a 3-1 win over Napoli in Round 8 and a 2-2 draw with Verona in Round 7.

On Thursday, Stefano Pioli’s Milan were in action in the Europa League and took a point off Ligue 1 side Lille. The French side had brought Milan’s incredible undefeated streak to an end with a 3-0 victory on Italian soil during Matchday 3. On Thursday in France, the teams canceled each other out in a 1-1 draw.

Milan are due to be without Zlatan Ibrahimovic who scored two goals in the Napoli win last weekend. The influetial Swede limped off with a thigh injury, which he has insisted will not keep him out for too long.

Meanwhile, Fiorentina are stumbling with no wins in their past three matches, and furthermore, no goals scored either. Last weekend’s loss was especially concerning considering it came at home and was to newly-promoted Benevento (1-0).

They failed to score against a usually leaky Parma backline as well in the match prior. On the road they are still winless at 0-2-2, scoring five and conceding eight. And while they drew 0-0 with Parma, they allowed multiple goals away to Roma, Spezia and Inter Milan.

It’s been a long time since Milan has tasted defeat in Serie A and I don’t see it happening here either.

Pick: AC Milan Win (-143)