Sassuolo vs Roma, Napoli vs Crotone & More


Serie A Matchday 29

Napoli’s Dries Mertens celebrates after scores against Roma during the Italian Serie A soccer match between Roma and Napoli at Rome’s Olympic stadium, Sunday, March 21, 2021. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

  • Serie A Matchday 29 sees all ten matches of the round taking place on Saturday, April 3, 2021
  • Napoli will have an opportunity to move into third place with a win and other results falling in their favor
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Matchday 29 here

Italy’s Serie A Matchday 29 offers a full slate of matches this Saturday. AC Milan vs Sampdoria will kick off the round at 6:30 am EST and seven matches will follow in the 9:00 am EST timeslot afterward.

Later on, the Derby della Mole sees Torino hosting Juventus at 12:00 pm EST, a matchup that has been dominated by Juventus of late. Across all competitions against Juventus, Torino is winless in the last 13 meetings. The round concludes with leaders Inter Milan traveling to face Bologna at 2:45 pm EST.

Looking forward, next week will include a big make-up match coming in midweek when Juventus hosts Napoli on Wednesday, a match that was rescheduled from earlier this year.

Roma will also be looking forward to a Europa League Quarterfinals match next Thursday against Ajax.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Matchday 29 schedule below.

Serie A Matchday 29 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
AC Milan vs Sampdoria -182 +300 +540
Atalanta vs Udinese -230 +335 +650
Benevento vs Parma +165 +230 +165
Cagliari vs Verona +165 +215 +175
Genoa vs Fiorentina +230 +195 +148
Lazio vs Spezia -245 +360 +650
Napoli vs Crotone -500 +600 +1300
Sassuolo vs Roma +290 +325 -129
Torino vs Juventus +510 +340 -195
Bologna vs Inter Milan +600 +350 -230

Odds as of Apr 1 at DraftKings

Napoli vs Crotone Prediction

Napoli will be looking to move into the top four, while Crotone looks to scratch and claw for any points possible to get out of the basement when the two meet on Serie A Matchday 29 at 9:00 am EST.

Just two points back of both fourth and third-placed Atalanta and Juventus, Napoli could potentially find themselves as high as third by day’s end if results go their way. Meanwhile, with just 15 points, Crotone are four points back of 19th Parma and an even further eight back of safety in 17th, where Torino currently resides.

With three-straight wins and no losses in five in the league, Napoli entered the break in fine form. A 2-0 road win to Roma in their last match was their second-straight clean sheet and their third over those five matches. In four of those five matches, they’ve scored multiple goals. They’ve also been performing well against the top sides, as evidenced by their aforementioned win over Roma, as well as wins over Milan and also Juventus in February.

 

Napoli gets up on their opponents early. Only four teams have scored more first-half goals than the Gli Azzurri. With only ten goals conceded in the first half (tied-first with Milan), they have the third-best goal-differential in the first half according to SoccerStats. Additionally, when Napoli gets up at the half, they have thus far been perfect at 12-0-0.

That could be bad news for a Crotone side which unsurprisingly (given their table position) has the worst first-half record at 3-9-16 (WDL), and worst first-half goal-differential at -17. When Crotone falls behind after the opening 45 minutes, they are actually winless and pointless at 0-0-16—also a league-worst.

 

If we look at some home-away splits, the numbers look even worse for Crotone in this one. They’ve scored just eight first goals when traveling while conceding 22. Whereas Napoli has scored 14 against just two conceded at home in the first-half.

Crotone has conceded multiple goals in each of the past ten matches while going 1-0-9 (WDL). They’ve been outscored in that stretch 29-11 and this looks to be another long night at the office for Sere Cosmi’s men.

Pick: Napoli Half-time/Full-time (-150 t Bet365)

Sassuolo vs Roma Prediction

These teams are only separated by two spots in the table heading into Serie A Matchday 29. However, Roma, sixth, has collected 11 points more than eighth place Sassuolo. The two meet in Reggio Emilia at 9:00 am EST.

Neither side entered the international break in the best of form. So the stoppage may have come at a good time for both to regroup. Sassuolo has just a single win to their name in their past five. Their last match saw them cough up a two-goal lead to Torino, conceding three goals from the 77th minute on, to lose 3-2. Conceding against Torino, stretched the Neroverdi’s streak to 17-straight matches allowing a goal.

Each of their past four matches have seen them concede more than their expected goals allowed (xGA) totals. They’ve allowed three, two, two and three goals, while their xGAs have read 2.3, 1.1, 1.4 and 2.4 respectively according to FBRef. In those same 17 matches though, Sassuolo have scored themselves on 15 occasions.

If Roberto De Zerbi hasn’t found a way to tighten things up defensively, we could be in for a thriller in this match. However, Sassuolo will be weakened by the likely absences of players like Domenico Berardi and Francesco Caputo, both injured during the international break. Roma though too, will be missing several players, through injury and suspension heading into this clash.

Despite being sixth in the table, Roma sits mid-pack in goals allowed, (42), ranking as the tenth-most goals allowed in the league. They’ve far underperformed their xGA of 31.1, but have gotten by with goal-scoring, tallying the sixth-most goals at 51.

Roma went into the break suffering a 2-0 loss to Napoli. Given how they’ve performed against top opponents this season the result wasn’t too surprising. Roma is now 0-4-6 (WDL) against teams ranked in the top eight—exactly the position where Sassuolo sits. They’ve conceded goals in four of their past five and that includes two against a typically goal-starved Parma side.

Results between these two have been all over the map of late. In 2018/19 Roma won 3-1 at home and the teams drew 0-0 at Sassuolo. Last season, both matches ended 4-2, with the home team winning each. And earlier this season it was another 0-0 draw in Rome.

This match looks to have goals, likely at least one from both sides (-182), but the better value will be backing one of the teams to find a second as well.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-120 at Bet365)

2021 Serie A Odds Tracker

Benevento vs Parma Prediction

While this may be a bottom-table matchup for Serie A Matchday 29, it’s an important match for 16th-placed Benevento versus 19th-placed Parma at 9:00 am EST. Benevento is clear of relegation danger, for the time being, however, they are only seven points above the drop zone and Cagliari, who are 18th. Parma is four points from safety of the 17th place, which is currently occupied by Torino. Positive results for Parma, Cagliari, and or Torino, could all greatly tighten up the relegation battle.

One team will be forced to do something they aren’t accustomed to, and that’s dictating the pace of play. Parma hold an average of 47.4-percent of average possession, while Benevento holds just 42.2-percent, a league-worst.

Both nets are typically under siege for each of these teams. Benevento ranks 14th in opponents’ shots on target, while Parma is 17th. Parma gives up 2.93 goal creating actions per 90 minutes of play (GCA90) which ranks 15th, while Benevento is slightly worse, allowing 3.14 (GCA90) ranking 17th.

And when it comes to xGA, it’s Parma in 14th and Benevento in 17th.

Benevento went into the break off a highlight result in their club’s history, a 1-0 road win over reigning champs Juventus. That broke a streak which saw them winless in their previous 11.

In dreadful form for much of the season, Parma may have lost 2-1 in their last match to Genoa, but they are at least 1-3-2 (WDL) in their past six. That is still just a single win in that span, and a single win in their past 19 Serie A matches, but they’ve now scored in seven straight. Considering their goal has been breached in 15/16 recent matches, it’s likely they’ll need to score maybe twice to have any chance of securing all three points.

One match that didn’t see goals scored for Parma, was when these sides met earlier this season in December, a 0-0 draw.

I think Parma is in slightly better form of late and leaning Parma on the ‘Draw No Bet’ market at -109 could be a safe play. I prefer to expect a goal from each side though and will bet both teams scoring at -148.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (-148)


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