Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction


Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev

Russia’s Daniil Medvedev plays a return to Chile’s Cristian Garin during their fourth round match on day 8, of the French Open tennis tournament at Roland Garros in Paris, France, Sunday, June 6, 2021. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)

  • Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev meet Tuesday in a French Open Quarterfinal
  • The winner is likely to draw Alexander Zverev in the semifinals
  • Where can we find betting value when a pair of top 5 players meet?

In the old man half of the French Open draw, legends Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are in action on Tuesday. Both are heavily favored to win and earn their way to a matchup in the semifinals.Β The more interesting quarterfinal is in the bottom half the draw. The future of the sport meets with Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev getting together.

Though Medvedev has dominated their head-to-heads, and both have been impressive thus far in Paris, Tsitsipas is a fairly significant favorite.

Let’s look closely at the quarterfinal faceoff and ponder some of the betting opportunities.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Stefanos Tsitsipas +4.5 games (-112) -230 Over 38.5 games (-108)
Daniil Medvedev -4.5 games (-112) +180 Under 38.5 games (-114)

All odds as of June 7 at DraftKings

Tsitsipas vs Medvedev History

This is the eighth all-time meeting between these players and Medvedev has won seven of them. Medvedev took their only battle on clay, two sets to one in the 2019 ATP Masters 1000 in Monte Carlo.

The only meeting between these two since 2019 came at this year’s Australian Open. Medvedev won 6-4, 6-2, 7-5.

Tsitsipas vs Medvedev Head-to-Head Stats

5 ATP Ranking 2
1-7 Head-to-Head 7-1
22 Age 25
33-8 2021 record 18-5
7 Career Singles Titles 10
0 Grand Slam Titles 0

Tsitsipas is Rolling

It has been almost a month since Tsitsipas lost a match. He fell to Djokovic in the quarters in Rome. Since then he has won eight straight matches and lost only two sets in that span.

After winning the title in Lyon, Tsitsipas managed straight set wins at the French Open over Jeremy Chardy and Pedro Martinez before dropping a set to John Isner. In the fourth round he overwhelmed Pablo Carreno Busta 6-3, 6-2, 7-5.

Tsitsipas is seeking a fourth major semifinal. He lost to Djokovic in five sets in the semis last year at Roland Garros.

Has Medvedev Figured Out Clay?

Medvedev is ranked number two in the world, and it is easy to understand why. He finished last year by reaching the semis at the US Open, and winning the ATP Finals. He started this year falling to Djokovic in five sets in the Australia Open Final.

Though it feels inevitable that Medvedev is going to win major titles, it still seems unlikely to occur at the French Open. Entering this year in Paris he had never won a match at the French Open.

Medvedev has dropped only one set in the tournament. He easily handled Alexander Bublik in the first round, needed four to beat Tommy Paul in the second round, and convincingly took care of Reilly Opelka and Cristian Garin to get to this point.

While Medvedev is 5-2 on clay this year, dating back to the start of 2017 he is only 14-18 on the surface. He did beat Djokovic and Tsitsipas in Monte Carlo in 2019.

2021 French Open Odds Tracker

How to Bet the Semifinal

Medvedev is playing much better on clay than expected. He is a player, like Roger Federer, who should be in the mix very routinely on hard courts and at Wimbledon but less often on clay.

If Medvedev beats Tsitsipas it would represent his best win on clay in two years. That is possible, but not particularly likely.

It honestly would be impressive if Medvedev can win a set or two against a player who is 20-3 on clay this year and wins at nearly 75% in his career on his favored surface.

Tsitsipas in straight sets is +220, and Medvedev to win exactly one set is +320. That feels like a very nice compromise. Better than three-to-one on the clay court specialist to win rather convincingly, but a nod to Medvedev who is playing much better on clay, is ranked number two for a reason, and can scrap to win one set.

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Dave F.

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