The sun rises over Raymond James Stadium as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take the field for an NFL football training camp practice Friday, Aug. 28, 2020, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
- The American Gaming Association projects $4.3 billion will be bet on Super Bowl 55
- How much of that money is on each of the Chiefs and Buccaneers?
- See the breakdown of bets and money for all three bet types below
A few days ago, the AGA (American Gaming Association) projected 23.2 million Americans will wager a total of $4.3 billion on Super Bowl 55, which is set to kickoff at 6:30pm ET on Sunday, February 7. But which team is the public putting their money behind: the Kansas City Chiefs or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs are currently 3-point favorites over Tom Brady’s Buccaneers, and the total is anywhere between 55.5 and 56.5, depending where you look. Here’s the breakdown of public bets and money on the moneyline, spread, and total.
Chiefs vs Buccaneers Betting Trends
|Bet Type||Percentage of Bets on Chiefs||Percentage of Bets on Buccaneers||Percentage of Money on Chiefs||Percentage of Money on Buccaneers|
|Bets Against the Spread||60%||40%||67%||33%|
|Over/Under Bets||69% (Ov)||31% (Un)||72% (Ov)||28% (Un)|
The betting trends above are accurate as of 9:39pm ET on Saturday, February 6. To be clear, “Ov” in the table above stands for “Over”, while “Un” is “Under”.
Moneyline Bets Split Down the Middle
When it comes to the moneyline, the number of bets placed on both sides are split right down the middle at 50% each. Kansas City holds a slight advantage in terms of money wagered on the moneyline, seeing 51%. With such a small spread in the game, it’s not surprising to see the moneyline so evenly split.
If you are a Buccaneers bettor who has been waiting to lock your money in, remember that the team who wins the Super Bowl is also 46-6-2 against the spread. This trend says you should just put your money on the Bucs to win. But you do you!
Printable Super Bowl 55 Props Sheet
You can find Tampa Bay as short as +135 and as long as +144 to win the game right now. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are as short as -166 and as long as -159.
Public Betting Chiefs to Cover the Spread
The fact that 60% of the public bets and 67% of the money bet against the spread is on the Chiefs should not be surprising. The betting public generally sides with the favorite.
Kansas City has been a 3-point favorite or worse five times in the last two seasons with Patrick Mahomes under center. They’re 5-0 straight up and against the spread in those games. The Buccaneers are 3-2 against the spread as underdogs this season, with one of those ATS wins coming in Week 12 agains the Chiefs as 3.5-point dogs.
This line opened at Kansas City -3.5, but moved down to three at most sportsbooks within 48 hours. We saw it jump back up to 3.5 for a few hours on Wednesday, but I wouldn’t expect it to get back there before kickoff. In its time at 3.5, sharps hit Tampa Bay pretty hard.
Public Is Predictably on the Over
Again, it’s not surprising to see 69% of the bets and 72% of the over/under money on the over. The public generally bets the over. They’re an optimistic bunch that doesn’t want to cheer against points/entertainment.
However, over bettors suffered through a little scare earlier in the week when some weather networks were calling for rain during Super Bowl 55. Fortunately, it looks like the rain is expected to stop well before kickoff and we’ll be treated to clear skies for the game.
The lowest I have seen the total offered was 54.5 when we feared rain. But it wasn’t available at that number long. You can find it as low as 55.5 right now, and as high as 56.5.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD’s Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD’s score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.